Headed into year four of his NFL career and the vibes couldn’t be worse for Joe Tryon-Shoyinka. After several years of pedestrian sack numbers, he was benched about midway through last season. The Bucs opted to not pick up his fifth-year option, and instead used a premium second-round pick on Alabama edge rusher Chris Braswell. Therefore, the headline of my article may have some Bucs fans thinking I must be high on drugs.

But I’m not, so hear me out.

The fifth-year option on Tryon-Shoyinka would have given him a guaranteed $13,251,000 for the 2025 season. Presumably since general manager Jason Licht did not opt to exercise it then his value does not match that price tag. But while the Bucs may not find Joe Tryon-Shoyinka to be worth that price tag, the market may still value him at that rate, or higher.

Let me explain.

Edge Rushers Are Getting PAID

Bucs OLB Joe Tryon-Shoyinka and Bears QB Justin Fields – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Let’s start with the market for 3-4 outside linebackers and 4-3 defensive ends. Currently, 35 edge rushers are making at least $10 million per year. Of that number, 20 are making $15 million or more. It is a premium position that teams are willing to shell out large contracts for solid or better play.

Here is a small smattering of edge rushers clearing $10 million APY currently. Tell me if you think any of them are “premium” players: Denico Autry, Andrew Van Ginkel, Sam Hubbard, Dorance Armstrong Jr., Preston Smith and Carl Granderson. All of these players are solid Edge2 types. Most provide solid run defense, semi-consistent pressure, and modest sack totals.

As a matter of fact, the average yearly sack figure for that group for the three years prior to them receiving their current contract is 6.4. The average of their APY (average per year salary) as a percent of the salary cap in the year they were signed is 4.62%. That percentage applied to this year’s salary cap would be an APY of $11.8 million over a three-year term. And that’s in today’s dollars.

I’m currently estimating the NFL’s salary cap to make another $20 million jump to around $275 million next year. Apply that percent of cap to that figure and you are looking at a $12.75 million APY for a solid EDGE2 next year. That’s just a little south of the fifth-year option the Bucs declined on Joe Tryon-Shoyinka.

Looking At A Comp Case

NFL agents and teams alike look for comparable cases as benchmarks for future contracts. It helps both sides use available data to come to agreements on a fair value for the agent’s client. Based on his first three seasons in the NFL, Joe Tryon-Shoyinka has a pretty close comp from the 2023 free agency period.

Carl Granderson signed an extension with the Saints prior to the 2023 season for four years and $52 million ($13 million APY) with $22,130,000 fully guaranteed at signing. Granderson had a different path to the NFL than Tryon-Shoyinka. Where JTS was a first-round pick, Granderson was an undrafted free agent out of Wyoming.

But over the 2021-2023 seasons Granderson put up strikingly similar numbers to the Bucs’ former first-rounder. Here is a side-by-side comparison of his production over that time period with Tryon-Shoyinka’s production over his first three seasons.

Tryon-Shoyinka out-produces Granderson in every statistical category except sacks where he trails by less than one, and forced fumbles where he is behind by two. This will give JTS the foundation for a comparable contract, adjusted for a sky-rocketing salary cap.

Granderson’s deal was based on a $224.8 million salary cap last year. Tryon-Shoyinka’s will be based off of a likely $275 million baseline. A simple cap adjustment would take his APY to $15.9 million.

And that’s before we even talk about draft pedigree. Yes, that’s a real thing.

Former first-rounders routinely receive larger deals than players of similar statistical profiles with lesser draft pedigrees. It is a fact of the NFL.

What Can Joe Tryon-Shoyinka Do This Year To “Secure His Bag”?

The obvious answer to this question is ‘get more sacks.’ But not as many as you might think. There are currently two edge rushers with a $15 million APY – Haason Reddick of the Jets and Uchenna Nwosu of the Seahawks.

Reddick has recorded 38 sacks over the past three seasons. JTS would need a 29-sack season to match that production. We can all agree that is out the window. But Tryon-Shoyinka will have other factors that help make up the gap in player profile between him and Reddick. Namely he is an above average run defender who may be the best coverage edge in the NFL.

But Nwosu is a much more interesting comp. Here’s the same side-by-side of JTS – this time with Nwosu.

While these numbers look disparate, they include Tryon-Shoyinka’s rookie season when he was a rotational depth piece. In order for him to match Nwosu’s three-year total heading into 2025, he would need to record 54 tackles, 12 tackles for loss, 10 sacks and 57 pressures. None of those numbers are unachievable. He is coming off of career highs in tackles and sacks (45 and 5.0, respectively). He had 46 pressures in 2022.

Edge rushers have historically converted about 18% of their pressures into sacks. For his career JTS is converting at a 13.33% rate, leaving about five sacks on the table. Watch his tape and you’ll find even more than that number. But make no mistake the talent is there if he can unlock the final piece of the puzzle.

He still flashes. A year four breakout is not out of the question. But improbable. pic.twitter.com/z2kIctbD7c

— Joshua Queipo (@josh_queipo) June 17, 2024

But JTS may not need to match Nwosu to secure a similar payday. Again, due to the rising nature of the salary cap, he may just need to land in the same range to get the same APY.

Bucs OLB Joe Tryon-Shoyinka and Falcons RB Tyler Allgeier – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The real key to Joe Tryon-Shoyinka’s next contract will be playing time. With last year’s benching and the addition of Chris Braswell there is no guarantee he will get enough play time to approximate the needed counting stats to secure the contract he can reasonably desire. But he has been running with the first team defense thus far during summer OTAs and the mini-camp.

Fans love sacks. And Joe Tryon-Shoyinka has not produced enough to satisfy that love.

But make no mistake there is a market in the NFL for a strong run defending pass rusher who can provide 40-50 pressures per season. And that market starts around $11 million per year and may go as high as $15 million. In a contract year, look out for Tryon-Shoyinka to make a push for that kind of payday.

Whether that happens or not – or if he stays in Tampa Bay or not – remains to be seen.