Bucs Insider Fantasy Outlook 2017: Quarterback

*All Average Draft Positions (ADP) are by 12-team standard league formats

QB Jameis Winston

Current ADP: 8.09 (9th pick of the 8th round, 93rd overall)

In the numbers, above, we have Winston’s 2016 fantasy statistics with his 2017 projections. The categories are his completions, yards, touchdowns, interceptions, rushing attempts, yards, touchdowns, then his overall fantasy points.

With all the weapons at his disposal, drafting Winston has become more and more alluring as the offseason has gone on. For the most part, turnovers in fantasy football aren’t as detrimental as they are in the actual game of football. This is the reason why quarterbacks like Blake Bortles are relevant in fantasy, but bad in reality.

Winston comes from that same camp, fantasy wise. He’ll throw his interceptions, but, especially in Koetter’s offense, he’s going to have more than his fair share of chances to make it up with big, touchdown throws. Right now Winston is the 11th quarterback being drafted on average. To me, that’s too low, and this is why. Even if you believe the narrative around Winston as a passer is going to remain relatively on par this year in terms of a lot of touchdowns and double-digit interceptions, if you think Winston is going to throw for more than 30 touchdowns this year, you draft him – they’ll make up for it.

More evidence can be found here: Marcus Mariota finished with just three more fantasy points than Winston did in 2016 despite throwing for only two less touchdowns and half the interceptions. Touchdowns and yards matter a lot, more than the mistakes. So, even if you think Winston is going to throw 15 interceptions again, if he throws for over 4,000 yards, and let’s say he gets over that 30 touchdown mark, he’s a Top 10 quarterback play for almost half the season.

More weapons, more yards, and a few more touchdowns would put Winston right around the 300 total points mark on the season, even if he throws the same number of interceptions. He’ll now have Tampa’s best weapon from 2016, Washington’s best weapon from 2016, Alabama’s best weapon form 2016 and Penn State’s best weapon from 2016 at his disposal to make that happen.