Bucs Insider Fantasy Outlook 2017: Running Back

*All Average Draft Positions (ADP) are by 12-team standard league formats

RB Doug Martin

Current ADP: 4.06 (6th pick of the 4th round, 41st overall)

Although there is plenty of debate for Winston (previous page) and Mike Evans (next page) in terms of their potential versus what will actually happen, the biggest, and most impactful, question to answer about the Buccaneers 2017 fantasy outlook is what to do with Doug Martin – after all, running backs win fantasy titles.

Martin has had two years where he’s been a Top 5 fantasy running back; he’s also had three years where he was a major bust.

Martin will miss the first three games of the season, which isn’t great considering those are two of the team’s best rushing match ups of the year. But, what do we make of him once he’s back? Can he overcome a tough schedule, or more importantly, can the guy stay healthy?

Martin’s ADP has skyrocketed since the offseason began. There were questions as to whether or not Martin would even be on the Buccaneers in 2017. Since then, they’ve pledged their support to him, say he’s in the best shape of his life, and have him taking all the first team reps in practice.

Martin was a safe buy a few months ago when his ADP was in the 80’s or even the 100’s, but now it’s all the way up to 41 as of mid-July. That means you’d be picking him over players like Martavis Bryant, Ty Montgomery, Andrew Luck, Brandon Marshall, Dalvin Cook, etc.

I think Martin is going to have a great year, but even if he does have an average points-per-week number close to a Top 10 running back, you’re still missing him for three games – two very easy ones. If you’re getting Martin at his current ADP, you better have the roster around him to not go 0-3 before he returns. As long as you do that, he could really pay off.

RB Jacquizz Rodgers

Current ADP: 11.01 (1st pick of the 11th round, 120th overall)

Those who have faith in Martin are certainly looking to pick up his handcuff for those easy games during the time he will miss.

Of the five games he was the starting running back, Rodgers scored less than double digits just once, despite having only two rushing touchdowns on the season. He’s the kind of running back who will aways move forward for yards, and that was evident by his high yards-per-carry average last year. That won’t change, and that’s why he’ll likely be the starting running back in Marin’s absence.

Besides taking a risk on a rookie who you think could break out, I’m comfortable with Rodgers being selected where he is, especially if you’re looking to handcuff him with Martin. He’ll likely only be useful for those first three games, but two of those first three could be 15+ point games for him.

RB Charles Sims

Current ADP: 14.01 (1st pick of the 14th round, 156th overall)

There is definitely a Charles Sims Hive within the fantasy football community, and I think a lot of that has to do with his ability as a receiver and a route runner.

In a standard league, unless there is an injury, set back or something from Martin, I don’t know how much you can trust Sims. I will say this: the team still likes him; they still think he can be a dangerous weapon. When Martin comes back, I think it’s Sims who gets more of the RB2 work than Rodgers, so Sims could be at least somewhat relevant all year. But, the fact of the matter is, with a potential bell cow running back coming back, and multiple mouths that could be fed along the depth chart, drafting Sims is nothing more than a blindfolded throw of a dart.

RB Jeremy McNichols

Current ADP: N/A

McNichols has been the talk of some fantasy football, well, fantasies, but the fact of the matter is, there’s a good chance he doesn’t even get more than five carries the entire year. There are just too many running backs on the depth chart for him to be a contributor, barring multiple injuries to players in front of him.

Unless we’re talking about a dynasty format, McNichols shouldn’t be drafted in standard leagues.