ALL TWENTY TUESDAY: ADAMS, HOOKER, BAKER AND MELIFONWU

One the positions where the value of pick location also means more is with safeties. There are four safeties who are projected as potential first-round picks all the way from No. 2 overall to No. 32. Those safeties are LSU’s Jamal Adams, Ohio State’s Malik Hooker, Washington’s Budda Baker and UConn’s Obi Melifonwu.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have the No. 19 overall pick. With the words and quotes of both general manager Jason Licht and head coach Dirk Koetter in mind, saying multiple times this offseason that they believe this is a deep draft and talent can be found anywhere, I would guess it’s unlikely they’re going to overpay with draft pick assets to move up anywhere. If anything, they would probably rather move down and get more picks, as long as they still believe they can get the player they want to take first.

We also picked up hints from Licht’s pre-draft press conference that the positions they may be targeting with their first pick might not be what we originally thought it would, as if need were the top priority. Instead, Licht talked about how his staff will still take a player they really like, even if it’s a position that isn’t as strong of a need or as thin on the depth chart as others. Continuing to connect the dots, he also mentioned that, though they think they improved the safety position in free agency, that competition is good and they would like to add to that.

That leads me to believe that this team is targeting defensive back just as much or maybe even more than the passing weapons or pass rushing players we’ve been talking about lately. I think both corner and safety are right up there in the mix. If the Bucs truly want a safety at the top as genuine competition, Adams, Hooker, Baker and Melifonwu are their options.

So, let’s take a look at each, talk about what they bring, where they’re projected to go, the value of their contracts if picked in those areas and where a sweet spot might be for the Bucs to take a certain one.

Jamal Adams

Adams is a cold-blooded killer. He’s the heart and soul of a defense that plays its home game in a place that is nicknamed “where offenses go to die” in Death valley. Plus, he was the first true freshman in the history of Les Miles’ tenure at LSU to be name a team captain for a game – and has been a leader ever since.

Adams is one of the best “box safeties” I’ve ever watched. By that I mean that he’s a strong safety type of player how often lines up or walks down into the box (where the linebackers are) to help in run support.

The play above is a great example of what Adams does best: identify, track, takedown. Mind you that play above is on the future Heisman winner Lamar Jackson, a player not many other in college football could keep up with.

He’s also not afraid to lower the shoulder and knock you on your ass. Adams has the heat-seeking missile kind of play style, similar to that of Oakland’s Karl Joseph, who was a first-round safety last year, and loves to be the finisher on plays before they even start. He’s truly a line of scrimmage protector in the sense that he doesn’t want the offense to gain a single yard on any play that involves a screen pass or a ball carrier.

Though Adams is enough of an athlete to play in coverage or even in a single-high safety set, his technique isn’t on the same level. The good thing is he has the stuff you can’t teach. He’s a smart and disciplined defender, and you can see what when he wraps up for tackles or takes on the perfect pursuit angle, so learning coverage techniques can something that could be counted on – which isn’t said about many players.

At the end of the day, though, I think Adams will remain a strong safety in the NFL because when you make the jump from college to the pros and we talk about improvement, it’s often your strengths that get stronger, not your weakness that disappear.

Box safeties don’t generally go in the Top 10, so seeing Adams’ name at No. 3 overall in mocks doesn’t line up with draft history. If he goes at No. 3 to Chicago, his $28,029,149 guaranteed contract would be second only to Eric Berry in terms of safety contracts around the NFL – and Berry plays free safety, a more coveted position due to the interception factor. When it comes to contract and positional value, Adams would be better off taken outside the Top 10, but that isn’t projected to happen.

For the Bucs, Adams could be a fit schematically. He’s a strong safety by trade, but he could develop into a Cover 2 kind of player, just being that first man in to help in run support. Tampa’s No. 19 pick of $11,052,856 would actually be good contractual value for Adams, but to get him they’d most likely need to trade up too high and watch that number soar. Though he fits the system, the value says they should pass, contractually and position-wise, for where he’s being mocked.

Malik Hooker

Range is king. It’s the range of how far a quarterback can throw a ball, the range in which a wide receiver can go down the field, the range of a linebacker in pursuit of a ball carrier, and, in Hooker’s case, the range of how much ground you can cover that makes you money in the NFL.

The skills Hooker brings to the professional table are that of some of the best to play the position. At times, Hooker shows flashes of Ed Reed and Earl Thomas in coverage as a single-high, ball-hawking machine. The play above in the playoff game versus Clemson was a perfect example. The Tigers had no desire to challenge Hooker on either of the seams that game, yet Hooker still made his presence know on a deep play all the way to the boundary. Watch how much ground he covers for that interception. That’s rare.

His skills in coverage aren’t just evident 40-50 yards down the field, either. Hooker shows good range in short areas as well, being able to read quarterbacks’ eyes and get to a spot before a receiver can when the ball arrives. He’s also an effective robber player on intermediate routes as shown above. 

Hooker is more worthy of a Top 10 rookie contract than Adams is (both are projected Top 10 players). Though Adams is a great football player, he doesn’t play a position that is coveted like Hooker does as a single-high free safety. Free safeties are the ones who make more money of the two because their skill set of speed, size, instincts, reaction time, ball skills, etc. are the less common as a complete package.

Unfortunately, the Buccaneers don’t play a lot of single-high Cover 3 defense. They play that scheme, Cover 2 and Quarters (Cover 4) a good deal. So trading up about ten spots to get what I think is the best safety in the draft wouldn’t really make sense value wise when you think of what they’d have to give up to get that high, the lack of maximized fit and the amount of money he would be making for the position – again most likely the second highest safety contract behind Berry.

Budda Baker

Before we get too far into Baker, I think it’s only fair that I tell you upfront that his legal name isn’t “Budda.” It’s Bishard – I know, I know, I was disappointed, too.

Baker has been starting for the Huskies since he was a true freshman. In his first year on campus, he started all 14 games, recorded 80 tackles, and interception an a sack. He continued his upward trajectory all the way to his final year where he was a consensus All-American.

One of my favorite aspects about Baker is that there’s rarely any wasted time in between his mental processing of a situation and him telling his body to get to a certain location. Baker ran a 4.45 at the NFL Scouting Combine and also ran a 6.76 3-cone drill and a 4.08 short shuttle. All three of those categories are in the high 80th percentile in terms of the rest of the NFL. That proves he has the athleticism to change direction and get a spot quick.

The play above is one of my favorite defensive plays of the entire college football season, and it does a nice job of putting the Budda Baker Complete Package on display. In the play above, Baker comes up from his robber safety spot, sees the break on the route and jumps it as if to know the pass better than the receiver did. That’s instinctive safety play that you just can’t teach.

It’s also very worth noting that Baker can be featured as a nickel corner and not only hold his own, but preform well. I was talking to a scout earlier this draft season who said if Baker was strictly a cornerback, he would be one of the top 5 corners in this class. That speaks a lot to Baker’s talent and versatility.

For the Buccaneers, Baker makes a lot of sense. He’s a player who could kill two birds with one stone as a Cover 2 or Quarters safety and possible nickel corner, and not in the sense that he’s not great at either. He’s fully capable of playing both.

Contract-wise, giving Baker an $11 million guaranteed deal if picked at No. 19 is actually favorable since you also have to take into account he’ll be playing some cornerback, too, which is a position that makes more money on a positional average. Baker is a scheme fit, value fit, contract fit and projection fit. Don’t be surprised if Baker is the surprise pick by Tampa Bay at No. 19. I would fully welcome that selection.

Obi Melifonwu

Melifonwu is the wild card of this first round, and this safety class as a whole, really. After putting on a historic Combine performance with a 6-foot-4, 224-pound weight in, running a 4.4-flat, jumping 44 inches vertically and 11-feet, 8-inches in the broad, those numbers are actually scary close to the likes of Julio Jones and Calvin Johnson.

But, at the end of the day, athletic ability doesn’t mean as much as we think it does if they player doesn’t do what we think they will with it. In the play above, Melifonwu is shot out of a cannon to the ball carrier. That’s the good part. The bad part is that you see it takes him a second to recognize the play. If Melifonwu had the instincts of the other three safeties with his athleticism, he’d be a Top 10 pick.

When you really see Melifonwu’s athleticism at work is when he’s playing in deep coverage (or man coverage). He has the length and speed to make up ground in a hurry, and can get from the hash marks to the sideline while the ball is in flight. That is a trait of Hooker’s that is why he is so coveted – though Hooker shows it consistently where Melifonwu shows it in flashes.

Closing speed is also a plus for Melifonwu as he has the ability to often beat ball carriers to the line of scrimmage if plays are designed to run outside. Again, you see a little bit of hesitation here from Melifonwu, but his explosiveness was once again on display.

Melifonwu is an interesting case. At first, people thought he could be the next Kam Chancellor at his size. But, Melifonwu doesn’t have the tenacity or strength to match a player like that. There are some scouts who think he might best as a shutdown corner. But, with not a lot of experience at all on the outside, such a move would be one you’d have to take in Day 2. Ideally, Melifonwu would be a rangy free safety, but his instincts and reaction time are slower than what you’d want from someone you’d rely on in the NFL as a single-high cover player, even if he has elite athleticism.

Picking Melifonwu at No. 19 would be more of a risk than picking Baker, and I don’t see it happening. Though the two bring a similar versatility with potential in a Cover 2 or Quarters scheme as a safety and corner, like the Bucs run, Baker is the much more polished prospect for the role. Melifonwu is the boom or bust safety of the four. His payout could be great, but he’s also a project in more than one way. It’s also key to remember that the three players listed above him all had well above average natural instincts. Melifonwu does not, a trait that is not easy to teach, if possible at all for a safety.