Read-Option: Jameis Winston, Take It or Leave It

Last week I asked you guys to give me your honest opinions of Winston. I asked for some thoughts on how he’s progressed, what you thought of him during the pre-draft process and even if you would have rather had Marcus Mariota at the time or even now.

The responses were pretty good. There were more of you that admitted that you were on Team Mariota during the draft process than I thought, but most of you also admitted that, since the team draft him, you’ve been happy with the Winston decision.

This week I’m asking you another Winston scenario.

Let’s hear your touchdown to interception ratio for Winston on the upcoming season.

2015: 4,090 yards, 60.8%, 28 TDs, 18 INTs

2016: 4,042 yards, 58.3%, 22 TDs, 15 INTs

Those are Winston’s stats to this point in his career. Take a look at the schedule, and with the new offensive weapons in mind, throw out a best educated guess to what you think his final stats will be. There may even be a prize for the person who gets the closest.

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Trevor Sikkema is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat reporter and NFL Draft analyst for PewterReport.com. Sikkema, an alumnus of the University of Florida, has covered both college and professional football for much of his career. As a native of the Sunshine State, when he's not buried in social media, Sikkema can be found out and active, attempting to be the best athlete he never was. Sikkema can be reached at: [email protected]

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MudManVA
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MudManVA

Nice 2 weeks Trevor & nice fantasy draft…you won hands down. arm strength & accuracy or important in the NFL, but I think the most important is the QB’s head, period. You can have the “gods” touch your arm, but if you don’t have the intellect & instincts he”ll never be really good. The NFL is littered with gift QB’s that could never amount to squat. The thing I love about Jameis is that he has those instincts, self confidence, and ANTICIPATES throws. How many QB’s have to have an open WR to throw versus throwing them open. Jameis does… Read more »

Chad Spitza
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Chad Spitza

This is exactly what I was hoping for in breaking down Jameis’ accuracy. I tend to agree with the baseball concept here and a perfect example can be seen here: Youtube – ‘Jameis Winston outfield assit’ The VERY first video shows a still shot of the throw. Hips open and he throws a dart to third. Pretty fun to watch in real speed as well. I believe baseball throws naturally open up throwing motions. Jameis is a natural thrower and its evident by all the unconventional throws he makes look easy. You could also make the argument his long delivery… Read more »

Bucpride5
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Bucpride5

Articles like this are why I’m not sold on him as a franchise qb. While he is promising and has decent stats he has A LOT to work on to earn the coveted franchise label.

– reduce turnovers
-make better decisions
-become more accurate
-quicker decision making

If he improves even on a few of these I can see

4250 yards 63% completion percentage 32 TD’s 16 INT’s

Hank Scorpio
Member
Hank Scorpio

I get what you’re saying, but you’re confusing franchise QB with elite QB. Jameis is already very much a franchise QB in the same way that Matt Stafford and Matt Ryan are franchise QBs. Both have had 1 elite season, but their career numbers (particularly TD:INT) are fairly similar to what Jameis has done so far. Neither of the Matt’s are on a HoF career trajectory at this point, but both are capable of being 15 yr franchise guys with the possibility for peak seasons like the Falcons had last year if everything falls into place (Matt Ryan had career… Read more »

Bucpride5
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Bucpride5

I classify a franchise qb as a player that gives your team a chance to win every week guys like Brady, Rodgers, Rothelisberger, Ryan, Brees, Newton, Carr, Luck, and Wilson all fit that bill.

It’s a term that gets thrown around haphazardly as teams are desperate to find a qb. If you fit that franchise mold yes, you should be with your team for the long term. In my view Jameis is in the Eli Manning Stafford mold where he needs superior talent to help him and will either break your heart or excite you

cgmaster27
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cgmaster27

You seem to be forgetting that
A. he is still the youngest QB in the NFL, and
B. his stats compare almost exactly like the greats such as Drew Brees, Ben Rothlesburger and others.
He is already very much a franchise QB, our win total has increased every year sine he’s gotten here, and he will only improve as he puts in the work to do so. He does have a lot of work to do, he’ll even admit that, but he is the definition of a franchise QB.

Naplesfan
Member
Naplesfan

It’s kinda silly to argue the completely ambiguous, I would say “meaningless” term of “franchise quarterback”.

Jameis Winston is our starting quarterback, likely he will be for many years to come, and he is a good quarterback, developing well considering he has only 2 seasons under his belt. He has the potential to become a very good quarterback,conceivably even a great quarterback.

That’s all that matters, or should matter, to us as fans.

Iowabucfan
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Iowabucfan

2017: 4500 yards, 35 Tds, 16 Ints
Go Bucs!

SaskBucs
Member
SaskBucs

Jameis did look a bit uncomfortable on some throws but I think the offense this year will take some heat off. The protection is hopefully better and defenses will respect the surrounding talent more, giving Jameis more time to dial throws in as well as cut down on interceptions.

2017- 4,360 yards, 63.4 %, 34 TDs, 14 INTs

Horse
Member
Horse

This would all be a different analysis if the OL played a little better, we had a little better running game, the WR’s ran the correct routes, the timing was in sync with a few more plays, and finally we used the dump pass as a prime play like all the QB’s who have higher percentages. Look no further than the two QB’s in the superbowl who used the dump pass over and over; sure made Brady and Ryan look very good. So I’ll take a wild guess based on ” a little better improvement from all the above”; 21… Read more »

Bucpride5
Member
Bucpride5

That would be a HUGE regression for Winston

If you look back at some of Jameis incompletions on long throws he typically has a checkdown and ignores that option for the long throw

Runole
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Runole

I believe that with the additional targets Winston’s long ball accuracy will improve as well a drop in the number of interceptions. The entire passing game got a huge improvement with the new acquisitions.

nitey
Member
nitey

Great article Trev, accuracy was the main reason I was on Team Marriota before the draft. However, I’m very happy with Winston. I think Winston’s accuracy will improve again this season because I think, unlike last year, because of the number of weapons he has available this year. Between Evans, Jackson, Brate, Humphries, Howard, Godwin, Sims and McNicoles he has better options at every level as well as greater depth should injuries occur. Also, while accuracy cannot possibly be taught, better throwing technique will cause balls that were maybe close misses last year to be caught this year and Winston… Read more »

nitey
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nitey

Oh, 62.5% completion percent.

Oberlon
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Oberlon

2017: 4320 yards, 62.1%, 31 TD, 13 IN.

cgmaster27
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cgmaster27

Another great article Trevor. I’ve said, it will take a few years if ever, to get the baseball out of him. It is interesting that he appears more comfortable to the left. I think the accuracy will improve with time and now he has more than 2 guys to throw to as well. He clearly missed on some of those big throws last year, just no speed out there. Desean Jackson isn’t getting overthrown on that toss to Mike at the first clip. We have a bunch of possession guys until this year. AS for the INT’s as a Winston… Read more »

TopHatRick
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TopHatRick

I still get frustrated when the stats for a quarterback get linked to a wide receiver’s ability. I’m in no way saying that Winston is the most accurate passer but for example, the first long ball to Evans which he over threw landed dead center of the end zone where I believe Evans was supposed to be. In-completions when the receiver runs the wrong routes, etc. Time will tell when he starts throwing to Desean who actually has the speed to adjust to the ball.

vinnie
Member
vinnie

Much increased passing yards and TD’s for Jameis this year as his new receivers will stretch the field and create more separation which should drastically improve yards and touchdowns. I think completion percentage will slightly increase but not dramatically as he will continue to stretch the field and not take the check downs. Also think his interceptions will remain higher than other franchise QB’s as he is a gunslinger. My thoughts are; 4,750 yards, 36 TD’d, 17 INT’s and 61.3% Completion %. Lastly, Jameis with new weapons and second half of 2016 defense takes us to the playoffs this year.… Read more »

fredster
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fredster

Love Jameis. I’ve caught flack here for saying he needs to improve his accuracy. The stats don’t lie. He’s young and I don’t agree you can’t teach accuracy 100%. Especially if it’s bad mechanics driving the inconsistency. He will be fine and I bet this area improves as the offense,weapons,run game,O line, etc improve. Would be shame to see D. Jackson streaking wide open for TD’s and getting missed! I thought the stat of being better on left is very odd. Like you said it’s not typically the case for righty’s. So if he can make the more difficult left… Read more »

surferdudes
Member

If he goes between 61, 62 %, 30 T.D.’s, can keep the picks under 15, 4,400 yds, I’d be happy.

Rut
Member
Rut

This might sound a little ridiculous but I don’t think we can even start to judge the guys throwing ability until after this year. So far he’s only ever had Evans. VJax, who is my favorite player of all time, just wasn’t the same player Winston rookie year. He was slower, couldn’t get open as easily, and the biggest drop was his ability to make those contested catches that were really his bread and butter. And this past year, we all know how VJ played. Not well. Hump is a special little guy, but I think I can speak for… Read more »

Jack
Member
Jack

Winston will win some games for his efforts and lose others. When he’s on, he can be electrifying.

Stats prediction: 4,300 yards, 63.1%, 32 TDs, 13 INTs

Winston is so gifted over the middle of the field that I cannot ignore the dynamic created between OJ Howard and Cameron Brate. Safeties and linebackers are going to have their hands full. Winston’s completion percentage will improve significantly this year.

jerseybucsfan
Member
jerseybucsfan

Great piece. Nice realistic breakdown but not at all depressing. Remember that this team finished 6-2 with the beat-up offense up and down. IMO he will take more pressure off the D and vice versa.
62.8 percent, 4220 yards, 35 touchdowns, 12 INTs.

scubog
Member
scubog

After searching for a QB for 40 years; regardless of whether his completion % is 59 or 62, the 23 year old Jameis Winston, in just two years, has shown me he is the best we’ve ever had under center. He has the competitive fire in his belly that the team sorely needed. He has the work ethic to set an example. He has the charisma to lead. He has “it”, and “it” can’t be taught.

Trevor pointing out that Jameis prefers throwing to the left probably made drdneast an even bigger Winston fan.

jp414
Member
jp414

Exactly. He already shows all the signs of being the BEST QB Tampa has EVER had. Freeman showed some real promise in 2nd season (25TDs, 6 INTs), along with a similar problem in throwing mechanics (Freeman seemed much more accurate when throwing on the run in 2010), but we all know about Freeman’s regression in his 3rd year. We still don’t know if Winston will ultimately prove to be the better pick over Mariota (Mariota has NO problems with throwing accuracy, but doesn’t throw deep as often). Mariota is obviously a more careful, West-Coast style passer, and would not have… Read more »

Buc-in-Philly Fan
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Buc-in-Philly Fan

This was kick ass Trevor! A few points that I think have influenced some of Jameis’ results in 2016: 1.Logan Mankins gone and our offensive line trying to adjust and allowing too much pressure 2.Injuries to our backfield coupled with #1 above lead to teams knowing we were going to pass the ball 3.Numerous injuries to our WR corps that limited the ball to one side of the field (Mike Evans lines up mostly on the left too..hmmm. Maybe this lead to more perceived poor throws to the right???) as well as receivers with no continuity with Jameis 4.Injuries to… Read more »

plopes808
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plopes808

Agreed. Jameis obviously has an accuracy issue, especially early in the game. There is no excuse for that and he needs to work on it…I believe he is. But we can’t forget that Jameis had ONE receiving option and NO running game last year. Not only did they know we were going to throw, but they knew who the target was.

Naplesfan
Member
Naplesfan

Are you quite sure his completion percentage will be 61.7%, and not 61.715%?

RootsCrew
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RootsCrew

First off, great article and breakdown. I just wanted the media to add context to the turnover issues Jameis has had since 2014. Not excusing them, but also not just looking at 33 INT’s and blasting him in articles without adding some context. Secondly, Jameis missed receivers high in 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016. It’s just his miss. Has been since high school. Probably always will be his miss. I do believe his baseball motion, plus sloppy/average mechanics contribute to his high throws. But he’s working on his mechanics every year & will continue to improve. Having watched Jameis at… Read more »

Naplesfan
Member
Naplesfan

Trevor, you’ve done your typical excellent job of analyzing Jameis Winston’s throwing performance using both advanced metrics and film study. Very enlightening. As for projecting Jameis’ future performance, that’s tough to do. I do imagine that the Bucs have come to the same conclusions as you, and know very well where Jameis needs to improve his technique. Koetter isn’t going to change his vertical throwing offense, and to capitalize on it Jameis definitely needs to improve, particularly to the center and right portions downfield. He and our offense are not going to become West Coast dink’n dunkers. How much will… Read more »

Naplesfan
Member
Naplesfan

Read an interesting piece on Pewter Plank by Allen Schechter about Jameis’ interceptions that I did not realize: When Jameis is passing inside the red zone, he is 34-1 TD to INT. Meaning that Jameis takes very good care of the ball when he’s in scoring position, to use a baseball term. Additionally, most of his INTs occur when the team was behind in score – 25 of his 33 INTs. Meaning, that when we’re behind, Jameis’ INTs tend to result from his efforts to climb back into the game .. in other words, trying to put the team on… Read more »

bEubanks11
Member
bEubanks11

I’m getting in a little late on this one so I’ll keep it short. Great article Trevor! Lots of fun. I’ll put my hat in at 64.3% for 4137 yards, 31 tds to 11 interceptions