All Twenty-Tuesday

Now that we got those stupid number out of the way, let’s get into the important stuff, the film – I’m kidding, calm down, stat nerds.

Quite a few of the stats I listed off on the previous page are pretty damning. The defensive numbers for the Patriots just aren’t up to championship or even postseason standards, and because of that, the offense is having to switch up how they do things to get more production at a higher rate. But, is that sustainable, and is it making Brady and company more uncomfortable.

Let’s take a look.

Pats Offense

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Though the Patriots have shifted the way they do offense, their bread and butter of controlling the pace has remained the same, even with different pieces on the outside.

The clip above is vintage Brady to start a game. It’s like a batter in baseball always looking at the first pitch in baseball, even though he knows it’s probably going to be a fastball right down the middle. In that play, Brady looked off the defenders for just a second, then turned his hips to fire for a 5-yard gain.

That’s what Brady can do early and often if the Bucs continue to play mainly off coverage. If they don’t adjust at some point, they’ll never get control of the pace back from the Pats because stuff like that is too easy.

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It’s not just short throws to one area of the field that make Brady and the Pats offense great. The problem teams have faced for years is that those quick hits can come from anywhere – this year they just have less weapons for it.

Bucs defensive coordinator Mike Smith talked about Brady’s ball placement as the top thing that concern a defensive play-caller. The play above is a perfect example. In that play, the coverage was nice and tight, and yet Brady was still able to time the throw perfectly and put the ball down and away so even the tight coverage had no chance.

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The Pats can’t go to Amendola every play like the previous one, and they know that. But, where they would normally switch it up and go to a player like Edelman, they don’t have that option this year.

Because of that, we’re seeing them take more chances like the one above. In that play, Cooks easily beat his man on the outside, Brady just mistimed the throw and couldn’t hit him between the window of the cornerback and the safety. Though that one didn’t connect, those are the plays that have boosted Brady’s yards per attempt average. He’s going for deep plays to Cook, Hogan and even tight end Rob Gronkowski more than usual.

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However, there’s always a cause and effect in the game of football, and that’s where we start to get into where the Patriots become vulnerable.

Due to the nature of a longer passing offense, that often leads the Patriots to attempt to buy more time in the pocket or gain confusion with play action. However, in plays like the ones above, in order to get the most out of the play action, you have to give the longer routes down the field time to develop. That means you’re dropping farther back as a quarterback. When this is the case, that opens up rushes to the outside to get home.

This is where Noah Spence and hopefully Jacquies Smith can come in. The Buccaneers’ edge presence has been nonexistent this season, and a big reason for that is because they’re lining up so wide on the line the line of scrimmage that it takes them so long to get to the quarterback because he’s keeping a compact drop step. This allowed him to get the ball out of his hand quicker. Brady has a tendency to drop back father into his sets when he’s not in shotgun. So, even though the Bucs pass rush set up has been less than ideal so far this season, it could play into a strength on Thursday on plays like the one above.

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I actually think the Patriots’ run blocking and rushing attack is pretty good, it’s just how they use it that is weird to me.

The Patriots seem to feed one plan of attack heavily and then switch to the other and feature it heavily. For example, 11 out of the first 12 plays of the game of the Patriots were passing plays, which spanned their first two drives. Then they opened up their third drive of the game with four straight runs. They have balance in between throughout the game, but the Patriots more than any time I’ve seen bunch what they do and just keep doing it whether it works or not. Sometimes it pays off big time and other times it just looks like they’re forcing things.

If they keep a balance, their running game might actually give the Buccaneers fits without linebackers Lavonte David or Kwon Alexander. Their offensive linemen are great at getting to the second level, as shown above.

Speaking of David and Alexander, this is where we’ll wrap up the offensive portion for the Patriots. Linebackers Ardarius Glanton and Kendell Beckwith are going to have to have their best game on Thursday. The reason for that is obvious; it’s Gronkowski. The Patriots use Gronk all over the field, and it will likely be one of the two linebackers who sees most of him in coverage.

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You bet your bottom dollar that when Brady send Gronk in motion, he watches to see what the defense does to react, and if he likes what he sees, he’s going there. The Bucs can’t bust on Gronkowski. If they do, Brady will see it every time. Expect safety T.J. Ward to draw the assignment of covering Gronk, too.

The Bucs are likely to play their typical off coverage, which, in theory, doesn’t bode well for them, but this year it’s not the worst thing in the world. If the chemistry along each unit is sound, then they could force the Pats to be a quick-hit team without their usual quick-hit players. This could give up quite a bit of yards, but also might force some stalled drives because of lack of player fit at the receiver position.

Pats Defense

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On the previous page I talked about the lack of athleticism from the Pats linebacker group being a problem, and the clip above is a good example of that.

The way you attack the coverage you see above is with tight ends, and fortunately for the Buccaneers, they have two pretty good ones.

I would expect this to be a point of emphasis for the Buccaneers, especially in trickery ways like the way Howard was used on his touchdown. New England plays a lot of man coverage, so if Tampa Bay can establish the run and have Doug Martin as a real threat and use play action, the Pats linebackers won’t be athletic enough to catch Howard or Brate going the other way, even if they see it coming better than the Giants did.

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Speaking of man coverage, here’s where we get into the real weakness of the Patriots, and something the Buccaneers need to do everything in their power to exploit.

As I mentioned on the previous page, the Patriots have the most yards given up through the air by a lot. The question is: Why? Gilmore, Malcolm Butler, Patrick Chung and Devin McCourty are all four good players.

So what gives? Chemistry and communication gives, and that is made evident in the clip above.

The Panthers used a lot of motion before the snap to see what coverage the Patriots were in, and whether they plan this next part or not, it actually ended up being the reason they won the game because it created so much confusion on the back end.

Watch the clip above and see how Chung move in motion with the receiver and pats his chest as to say, “I got him, I got him.” However, when the play takes off and the play action happens, Chung falls for the run and his man is left wide open with no help since it was man coverage.

A little miscommunication, but it wasn’t the last time something like that happened, and that play was actually the least costly.

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In the play above, we once again saw the Panthers use motion pre-snap and it once again confused the Patriots secondary, not because of anything complex, they just couldn’t figure out who was suppose to switch or stay  on the man.

As a result, there was a major bust in coverage. Not only did the screen pass score, Ed Dickson, the tight end out in front, could have gotten the pass earlier and scored himself, too. A total bust in coverage due to the Panther moving players and doing nothing more than forcing good communication – which didn’t happen.

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So now that we’ve established what kind of play-calling makes the Patriots uncomfortable, now we can get into the specifics of how to make the most of that knowledge.

In the clip above, the Panthers were in a bunch formation with all three receivers all bunch in a triangle shape close to the line of scrimmage. Then, the Panther motion another player to the outside even father left. This confused the Patriots switches with now all four players on one side.

As the ball was hiked, there was a clear miscommunication among the defensive backs and Kelvin Benjamin was left wide open for a big gain. Putting receivers in motion near the trenches gives the Pats fits because it forces them to be precise in who they are covering from the moment the ball is snapped due to how much space they’ll have if they run towards the sideline. If you’re confused, even for a second, it’s over.

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The final example I’m going to show again involves that bunch formation. This time, in the clip above, the man in motion was actually completing the triangle in the bunch.

As the man came over in motion, you can see the Patriots safety move over with him, then up, then back and start out of position because of it. You also see Gilmore at the bottom point to a different man. because of this, the Patriots had another blown coverage and the player going to the outside was wide open.

Do I think New Engalnd knows this is a problem? Yes, I do.

But, would it be silly of the Bucs not to test them on a proven weakness? Yes, it would be.

Expect a lot of motion from Tampa Bay on Thursday. It’s the proven way to get the Pats as confused as you can. The Bucs also like to run that bunch formation look, so that should come in handy, too.