Expected Points Added, or EPA, is a statistic that was created to measure the value of each play during a football game in terms of points. EPA is essentially trying to put a value on how many points a team can expect to gain based on the result of an individual play, while taking the down-and-distance and the team’s field position into account.

For example, a 5-yard run from the 50-yard line on first-and-10 is weighed differently than a 5-yard run inside the opponents 10-yard line on third-and-2.

You can read all about Expected Points Added here, including examples.

Below are the Bucs’ highest-valued plays by Expected Points Added, per rbsdm.com by Ben Baldwin, from their Week 2 match-up against the Carolina Panthers.

Jordan Whitehead, Interception: 5.4 EPA

This play happened on the Panthers’ first offensive drive of the game after driving from their own 29-yard line to just outside of the Bucs’ red zone. On first-and-10 from the Bucs’ 22-yard line, quarterback Teddy Bridgewater dropped back and threw a screen pass intended for running back Christian McCaffrey. The pass was overthrown and intercepted by Whitehead, at the Tampa Bay 22-yard line.

Antoine Winfield Jr., Forced Fumble: 5.2 EPA

Later in the first quarter, Tampa Bay ended Carolina’s second drive with their second forced turnover of the game. On a second-and-7 play Bridgewater dropped back and the Bucs sent pressure with Winfield off of the edge. Winfield was able to get to Bridgewater and force a fumble that was ultimately recovered by Jason Pierre-Paul and returned six yards to the Carolina 23-yard line.

Leonard Fournette, 46-Yard TD Run: 4.6 EPA

After answering a Tampa Bay field goal with one of their own, Carolina was able to bring the game within seven points following the two-minute warning. Tight end Rob Gronkowski then secured the Panthers’ onside kick attempt and on the first play of the Bucs’ ensuing drive, with 1:56 remaining, Fournette broke free up the middle for a 46-yard touchdown run to give the Bucs a 31-17 lead.

Tom Brady/Mike Evans, 50-Yard Reception: 4.0 EPA

On Tampa Bay’s second drive of the game, facing a second-and-14 from their own 29-yard line following an illegal block in the back penalty from center Ryan Jensen, Brady connected with Evans for a 50-yard reception down to the Panthers’ 21-yard line.

Lavonte David, Fumble Recovery: 3.9 EPA

Two plays into the Panthers’ first drive of the second half, trailing 21-0, the Bucs came up with their third turnover of the game. Starting at their own 21-yard line on second-and-14, Bridgewater connected with receiver Robby Anderson for a short gain. The play was initially ruled down by contact, but after a Tampa Bay challenge, it was ruled that David forced the fumble before the receiver was down and recovered it at the Carolina 27-yard line.

Here is an alternate angle of the forced fumble.

Carlton Davis, Interception: 3.3 EPA

With Carolina trailing 21-14 after scoring touchdowns on two consecutive drives to close the gap to just seven points, Davis was able to nab his second career interception and the Bucs’ fourth and final turnover of the day. Backed up on a second-and-17 play from the Carolina 44-yard line, Bridgewater fired a pass downfield for receiver D.J. Moore, but the throw was just off target and Davis took advantage for the interception, returning it two yards to the Tampa Bay 40-yard line.

Here is an alternate angle of the interception.

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Bradley Smith

I think Fournette will be starting by mid-season.

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Rating: +6. From 6 votes.
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buclover1988

IMO he should be the starter going forward.

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Rating: +5. From 5 votes.
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plopes808

I’d be good with this, but I also like the way they’ve been doing it. Seems to be working with Rojo working the defense and Fournette finishing them off.

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Rating: +4. From 4 votes.
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thewbacca

Cappa was a snow plow on that Fournette run- opened the lane and took on a double team.

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Rating: +17. From 17 votes.
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buclover1988

Yes he was. That was the best movement up front that I’ve seen in a very long time.

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Robert

If EPA = Expected Points Added Then how is the Leonard Fournette, 46-Yard TD Run= 4.6 EPA. Its a touchdown that should = 6. I’ve never seen a touchdown that =4.6 points.

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Rating: +6. From 10 votes.
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BucHarbour

Yeah what kind of dumb system estimates the points a play gets and shows less than 6 on any TD play? Makes no sense too me.

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Rating: +1. From 3 votes.
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Naplesfan

Here’s a hint – it is not the system that’s dumb. It is people who don’t get math or probability or statistics who are dumb. Or at least ignorant and not willing to admit that they are ignorant.

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Naplesfan

You are leaving out one of the three words in the term EPA: “expected”.

There is no play on earth in which the expectation is 6 points, because there is no play on earth that is required to succeed by the laws of physics or the rules of football.

The word “expected” means that this is a statistical calculation, involving probabilities, which for everything in football ranges from something less than 1.0 to something greater than 0.0.

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Hockey Duckie

EPA is based upon possession, yards, and the context on how those yards, which includes time, starting position, and score. Example 1: Earning 2 yards on 1st-and-10 carries less value than 2 yards on 4th-and-1. Example 2: Scoring a 46-yard TD run when you are down by 5 points with a minute left in the game carries more value than scoring a 46-yard TD run when you are up by a TD with about 2-minutes left and you started at the opponent’s 46-yard line. EPA is giving context to yards because not all yards are equal. Bucs’ LOS on that… Read more »

toofamiliar17

EPA does not value plays differently based on score or context of that particular nature. It’s only evaluating points themselves. If you score on a 46 yard run while down by 30 or up 30, that run adds the same number of expected points to the drive regardless of that score prior to the run. To be more specific – the expected points on first and 10 from the CAR 46 with that time left in the game was 1.4. Hence why the EPA (expected points ADDED) was 4.6 – it raised our expected points on that drive from 1.4… Read more »

toofamiliar17

See my reply to Hockey to answer your question. Expected points accounts for down, distance to go, field position, home-field advantage, and time remaining to calculate exactly how many points a team should expect to score, on average, prior to a given play taking place. For an example, I’ll talk about the Teddy Bridgewater INT on the attempted screen to McCaffrey. On 1st and 10 from our 22 yard line, the Panthers had an expected points on that drive of about 3.7. Meaning that on average, a team with that down and distance, from that place on the field, with… Read more »

plopes808

For all the hype we have on offense, our defense has somehow flown under the radar. I don’t think it’ll be that way for long with the way they’ve been playing to start out the year.

It’s too early to say for sure but Winfield is looking like the steal of the draft. Not to say that Wirfs isn’t doing well, because he is, but that’s expected of a first rounder.

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toofamiliar17

I love Winfield, and I also have ample belief in this defense. Now, that said – the Raiders D also just made Brees and co. look ordinary, and Bridgewater racked up 367 yards against us at a rate of 8.7 yards per attempt, which is excellent. Turnovers have a fair amount of randomness to them and generally aren’t reliable long term. As such, for us to actually be good, we need to stop good opponents from gaining yards. Time will tell, and I do believe in our talent, which makes me believe in our ability to eventually get there, but… Read more »

BucWonder

Cappa makes two blocks on the Fournette TD run, first the DT, then the LB. Great play.

Go Bucs!

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