For the Bucs, it’s a blessing to having a good roster. Lots of good players usually means success.

Yet the curse of having a good roster is eventually have to pay those players – or risk losing them.

The Bucs have done a good job over the past three years of keeping their most talented players. In 2019 they re-signed left tackle Donovan Smith. In 2020 the team franchise tagged outside linebacker Shaq Barrett and re-signed outside linebacker Jason Pierre-Paul, as well as defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh.

Last year they re-signed Barrett, linebacker Lavonte David, running back Leonard Fournette, tight end Rob Gronkowski, as well as Suh, while also franchise-tagging wide receiver Chris Godwin. And this year the Bucs re-upped with Godwin, Fournette, center Ryan Jensen, cornerback Carlton Davis, and defensive lineman Will Gholston.

Needless to say, the team has a pretty solid record of paying players who perform.

Pewter Report’s Bailey Adams recently looked at who the Bucs may target in next year’s draft. Building off of that let’s take a look at who the Bucs may look to re-sign next year. The Bucs will see seven projected starters who will be entering free agency. They are Gholston, David, quarterback Tom Brady, safety Mike Edwards, cornerbacks Sean Murphy-Bunting and Jamel Dean, and defensive lineman Akiem Hicks.

If each of these players continues to play as they have or are projected to what kind of contracts will they be looking for? Will the Bucs be able to offer them those contracts? Will they want to?

A Class Of His Own

Bucs QB Tom Brady – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

When looking at contract projections it is best to look at “comps” or comparable players. Player “A” is 30 years old coming off a season where he put up these stats at this position and just signed for three years and $40 million. Player “B” will be 30 years old and has produced similarly at the same position so we can project he will sign for a similar amount. I’ll give you one guess as to how many “comps” there are for a Tom Brady. He is a 45-year-old quarterback with seven Super Bowl rings, and just shy of 10,000 yards and just over 80 touchdowns over the past two seasons. The answer is none.

Brady is the definition of an outlier. And quite honestly all signs point to him retiring at the conclusion of the 2022 season. However, if he were to perform similarly this season to his past two, he could easily command $40 million on the open market. That’s not to say he will. Brady has notoriously taken less than top-of-the-market money to help his teams build quality rosters around him. His current deal technically has an annual average value of $25 million per OverTheCap.com. With the expected increase in salary cap to be at least $11 million between 2022 and 2023 it is reasonable to project Brady for a 1 year, $30 million deal.

Aging Vets Whose Salaries Will Most Likely Come Down

There are three players who will most likely fall into this category. Will Gholston just signed a one-year deal worth $4.5 million. That AAV is a reduction of $1 million per year from his previous deal. Next year Gholston will be 32. Add to that he will most likely be coming off of a year where his playing time is reduced due to new additions Logan Hall and Akiem Hicks. Look for Gholston to be seeking another one-year deal in the neighborhood of $3-4 million.

Bucs DT Akiem Hicks – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Speaking of Hicks, he signed a fairly lucrative one-year pact with the Bucs to the tune of $8 million. If he is able to perform up to his proven talent-level AND stay healthy there is no reason he couldn’t command a similar contract next year. This would be despite him being 34 years old at the time.

However, the reality is that given his age and injury history he will most likely miss time this year. Factoring that in it is likely next year he will be weighing another one-year contract for a slightly reduced value of $6.75-7.5 million.

The last player to come in under this heading is future Bucs Ring of Honor inductee Lavonte David. David is finishing up the last year of the two-year, $25 million contract he signed prior to the 2021 season. He is coming off of his worst statistical season since 2016. This is due mostly to injury as David missed five games with a sprained ankle. At David’s age (he will be 33 next year) logic would say that that he would be relegated to one-year deals like Hicks and Gholston.

However, there is a very interesting “comp” for David that just signed this year. After being released by Seattle, Bobby Wagner just signed a five-year, $50 million deal with the Los Angeles Rams at the age of 32. However, the guaranteed money on the deal is just $10 million. So it is very likely that Wagner never comes close to the end of the deal before being released. Nevertheless, it paves the way for a two-year deal for David at the same AAV with the same guarantee. This would represent a slight decrease in AAV from David’s current deal (down from $12.5 million to $10 million).

Second Contract Players

The Bucs secondary could see a lot of turnover next year. In addition to veterans Keanu Neal and Logan Ryan becoming free agents, the team has three players finishing up their rookie deals. Cornerback Jamel Dean has established himself as an extremely talented perimeter corner with some health concerns.

PFF recently ranked him in the top 15 of all corners in the NFL. His profile is similar to that of Chidobe Awuzie. Awuzie, was a third-round pick by Dallas in 2017. He posted 175 tackles, three interceptions, and 32 passes defensed over 41 games spanning his first three years in the league. Over those first three seasons he also posted PFF coverage grades of 78.9, 66.1, and 70.5. He then had an injury-marred 2020 campaign. Last year Awuzie signed a three-year, $21.75 million deal with the Bengals.

Bucs CB Jamel Dean – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Now looking at Dean in comparison and there are a lot of similarities. Over his first three years Dean has played in 42 games. During that time he has racked up 136 tackles, five interceptions, and 33 passes defensed while posting PFF coverage grades of 78.9, 79.9, and 76.7.

Given the similarities in draft pedigree, statistical production, and grading it makes sense for Awuzie’s contract to be the floor for negotiations with Dean. And if he remains healthy this season and continues to improve his game, there is quite a bit of upside. It isn’t unreasonable to look at Carlton Davis III’s three-year, $44.5 million deal as a ceiling. I would take a mid-point approach with these two deals. That comes in around three years and $35 million with about $15-17 million guaranteed.

Despite being drafted ahead of Dean in 2017, Sean Murphy-Bunting is considered to be a less productive player. Many Bucs fans are actively campaigning for Murphy-Bunting to lose his starting slot corner job to Logan Ryan. Without a strong bounce back year from SMB, he is looking at a contract similar to that of 2018 second-round pick Isaiah Oliver. Oliver, who recorded similar counting stats and PFF coverage grades, just re-signed with the Falcons for one-year and $2.385 million.

Finally, Mike Edwards enters his contract year with his first legitimate shot to start in his career. In limited playing time he has proven to be a playmaker. He has five interceptions and 18 passes defensed over his first three years in the league. Given his draft pedigree (third round, 2019) and lack of starting experience, he doesn’t currently have a resume that stacks up to other safeties who just signed second contracts. These players are Justin Reid, John Johnson, and Tracy Walker. All three of those players inked deals with AAV’s north of $8 million.

Now if Edwards is able to continue his playmaking ways in a full-time role there is an outside chance he could see a deal in that range. Something like 3 years, $27 million with $18 million guaranteed could be a real possibility. But a more likely projection in my opinion is a two-year deal for $14-15 million with $8-10 million guaranteed. The lack of starting experience will most likely depress his potential earnings.

Now currently the Bucs show as being over the projected salary cap in 2023. But they have plenty of room to maneuver and get that number down. Each of the deals listed above are within the Bucs reach save one. Unless the language in Brady’s current deal allows the team to roll his $35,104,000 dead cap hit into a potential new one, the Bucs would be hard-pressed to re-sign the GOAT. In all likelihood, whether he retires or not, this will be Brady’s last year in Tampa Bay.