In Peter King’s absence due to a month-long vacation, Pro Football Talk invited multiple writers from Pro Football Focus – including majority owner Cris Collinsworth – to take over the site’s Football Morning in America column.

The topics covered in Monday’s piece ranges from how data is impacting the landscape of football to how teams could use the data gathered by PFF to how the league’s views have changes about analytics over the years. They also included a “we think” segment and a segment highlighting five players that could end up in PFF’s top-50 players next year, both including some of the Bucs’ young, core players.

PFF’s senior analyst Sam Monson seems high on the Bucs’ youth, placing both tight end O.J. Howard, Tampa Bay’s 2017 first-round pick, and defensive tackle Vita Vea, the team’s 2018 first-rounder, on a very short list of players that could end up in PFF’s top-50 following the 2019 season.

In the “we think” segment, PFF argues that while Jameis Winston may continue to make his share of mistakes, he will make a run at the league’s passing title due to having such talent at the wide receiver, a penchant for downfield passes in Bruce Arians’ offenses and Arians’ previous success with high-variance quarterbacks.

Read the full article here.

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16 COMMENTS

  1. I always had the opinion that Chris Collinsworth was a Buc Hater. When he was a broadcaster I thought he was too sour on them. #20 could get a blitz sack and he would remind people that Barber screwed up 3 weeks prior. Sure he’s fuming over the positive press.

    Can’t wait for training camp. The topics we have to discuss right now are few and far between.

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  2. Even in the data-geek world, everything is linked back to “better coaching”….Winston, Howard, Vea will all be stars this year because of better coaching. Two thoughts:

    1) I hope pff is right.
    2) people sure have turned on Dirk Koetter quickly. I guess the NotForLong League applies to coaches too.

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  3. Have you been watching this team for the last 11 years, we’ve earned every bit of criticism given by Collinsworth. He’s probably the most objective analyst around, I think I’ll take his criticism over Chris Simms.
    I posted earlier today in another thread defending this tired old argument that you can’t win with Winston unless he…… fill in the blank and now here’s a respected analyst projecting Winston to have a break out year. Winston’s worst statistical year was last year where he served a 3 game suspension and was benched by an incompetent head coach for something called “Fitzmajic”. If I’m worried about the Bucs winning or not its not because of Winston I can tell you that right now. Go Bucs!!!

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  4. I honestly didn’t think that Koetter was that bad of a head coach, but I never liked some of his picks for positional coaches. When he made Mike Smith the DC after he was hired, I thought it was a brilliant move but after the first season results I had soured on him. His defense was all wrong for today’s offense and I had doubts that the heavy line and zone concepts he was trying to instill would work. I always hated the Warhop selection and honestly felt that was Koetter’s greatest mistake. It seemed to me that the rest of the coaching staff was mostly ‘meh’ with nobody that stood out as a real superstar as a coach. The reality was that the only positional coaches that seemed to perform well with their talent was the WR and TE coaches, and in the final year Buckner as the defensive line coach. Duffner was a good linebackers coach, but when given the chance to really make his mark on the defense after Smith was let go, he didn’t do much more than mildly improve a bad product (maybe the scheme was just so bad, that was the best that could be done).

    So, IMO – yes, the overall coaching basically was bad. Add in a first year coach that was more of a good offensive coordinator than a head coach and I’m not surprised that the team didn’t maximize the wins given the talent that most analysts thought there was on the roster.

    I think Koetter was better coach than Lovie, but in hindsight was not a strong enough coach to organize his coaching staff to improve the players. I believe he delegated too much to the positional coaches and didn’t hold the coaches responsible enough for when the players didn’t play well. And because the players saw that the coaches were not held responsible, then they didn’t hold each other accountable as well. If you want examples, look at how the coaches let Baker, Grimes and Jackson under perform on the field. Every game, there were critical breakdowns on the offensive line, but they never got corrected. Same thing with the defensive backfield, but in a bit of fairness, there were also a ton of injuries back there year after year.

    So, we’ll see with the new staff. At least BA is talking like accountability is job #1. That’s a good start IMO.

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  5. Koetter was never Head Coach material! May be a decent OC but was in way over his head as Head Coach. It showed by the people he surrounded himself with. We just don’t know how much power he actually had and how much was left to JL! JL will sing a different tune with an experienced Head Coach BA. BA has surrounded himself with many of his choice Coaches! And lots of them! Coaching will not be a problem this year and as a result I suspect a couple of more wins. Jameis finally has an offense built around him and a coach who believes in him. Go Bucs!

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  6. Nitey, Koetter’s biggest mistake was not recognizing that hiring his buddy, Mike Smith, was a huge mistake and then not correcting it at the end of the 2017 season. Had he done so, he just might have won enough games to retain his job.

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  7. Nitey, excellent analysis.
    Ishare many of your same thoughts.
    Just a couple of things.
    Look at the points the defense allowed before and after 8 games and the difference between home and away games. The difference is startling.
    Duffner did indeed make a difference but you are right, you can’t change the whole scheme of a defense midway through the season.
    As for Smith, let me take this opportunity to remind everybody once again how excited everyone was when the Bucs were able to retain Smith after his first season here, especially those in the media who cover the Bucs.
    In fact, some media members said that was the most importain FA the Bucs retained after the season.

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  8. In the words of a guy who was great for a while, Everybody has a great plan..until they Hit! (Mike Tyson)
    I make no predictions. You see, I’ve been a fan since inception and know..Not to do so after a..plethera of disappointments. I do know one thing for certain though, Arians has talked a lot of S***. He’d better Win. Cause these same fans who cheered his hiring? Will turn on him quicker than an..Arizona Diamonback! Batter up sir and good Luck. GO BUCS.

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  9. My only hesitation is that BA has a reputation for underusing TE’s. I definitely think that Winston will have a big year. I am hopeful that Vea will too because if he doesn’t we have little hope of this defense being much better than last year.

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  10. I’m excited to see how Vita comes around. He finished strong last season, hope he can stay healthy.

    I’m all in on Jamies – pulling for him to take the step.

    I like Howard, would help if he could finish a season, but tired of hearing about his potential. At this point Rate is the more consistent player that has produced – and played through injuries.

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  11. Dr. D not sure what’s the point in reminding about Smith’s one good year. Actually wasn’t even a good year was half a year. Yes I remember I also remember the two following years it was clear the defense would be leagues worst if he remained. Koetter biggest mistake was retaining him and cost him his job imo. Yes everyone wanted him to get another year and he did and was just horrible after that.

    I hope Howard can finish a year too but no comparison with Brate. Howard is a freak and Brate just can’t do what he can. Not to say he’s not been very good TE for Bucs. He played through injury last year but stats weren’t too good either.

    If they run the ball, play average on d, and stay balanced Winston will have big year. Howard should too but Arians hasn’t been huge TE guy but he’s smart I don’t think he will not use Howard’s freakish ability.

    Vea should be much improved too after seeing his finish last year and getting better coaching now and playing next to Suh one of the great DT’s who is aggressive as well should only help.

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  12. The o line is a bunch of hot garbage, as it goes so goes Winston as he goes the team will follow. Foot ball not not graduate school folks.

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  13. this article links to a big pff page where there’s separate pieces on Winston… Florio isn’t convinced and neither is Simms. One thing that was brought up is that week 4-9 they have no home games because of the London game. Also, they go LA to London and back to Seattle to finish week 9. That stretch of games may sink their season all on its own. And if it does, the front office has yet more difficult decisions ahead for themselves.

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  14. I think we have to be realistic and consider 8-8 a win for this team.

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  15. I think everyone is excited and as fans, we should be but let us not get to filled with high hopes this first year. The players have to buy into this new system and these new coaches. There has not been much success with alot of the Front Office choices GM as well as coaches. I do not think the Bucs have ever really had a great GM running operations. The Glazers have not had much success in finding the right fit. I do not know if it is a lack of knowledge or lack of involvement. I do know that other NFL organizations have it figured out. After the amount of time the Glazers have owned the Bucs I think they need to reexamine their choices a little better and maybe use jyst

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  16. a little better judgement. It all starts at the top. Let us hope that Arians can get the job done despite having to work with Licht. Just one fans opinion. Go Bucs!!!!!!

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