Pro Football Focus has released its 2021 win totals and the Super Bowl champion Bucs are at the top. PFF has Tampa Bay winning 11.6 games this season – one spot ahead of Kansas City. The Chiefs, who lost to the Bucs in Super Bowl LV, are projected to win 11.5 games.

Of course neither the Bucs nor the Chiefs can win either 11.6 or 11.5 games, and there was no stated criteria in the PFF tweet as to how that number was determined. They’ll either win 11 or 12 games. For the Bucs, who finished 11-5 last year, that means an 11-6 or a 12-5 record in the NFL’s new 17-game schedule.

The highest regular season win total in Tampa Bay history was the 12-4 mark that the 2002 Super Bowl champions achieved.

Green Bay, which lost to Tampa Bay in the NFC Championship Game, is third with 11 projected wins. Buffalo (10.5) and Cleveland (10.2) round out the Top 5.

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About the Author: Scott Reynolds

Scott Reynolds is in his 25th year of covering the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the vice president, publisher and senior Bucs beat writer for PewterReport.com. Author of the popular SR's Fab 5 column on Fridays, Reynolds oversees web development and forges marketing partnerships for PewterReport.com in addition to his editorial duties. A graduate of Kansas State University in 1995, Reynolds spent six years giving back to the community as the defensive line coach for his sons' Pop Warner team, the South Pasco Predators. Reynolds can be reached at: sr@pewterreport.com
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mark2001
16 days ago

This is a better team, more prepared for the season, with an easier schedule. I expect at least twelve games.. maybe 13 if we stay relatively healthy.

fredster
Reply to  mark2001
15 days ago

I Agree 12-13 for Bucs if no key injuries seems more likely than 11 to me. Better team, better familiarities, better schedule.

Naplesfan
16 days ago

This kind of analysis – which is typical for PFF and all other proponents of statistical/analytical metrics for football and other sports, is a perfect example of a “distinction without a difference” and pretenses that stats from the past are good predictors of the future – which of course, they aren’t. There is so much imprecision involved in estimating team win totals that it’s really an exercise in futility. An injury of one or more key players on any team negates the entire analysis. There is also the psychological factors involve in game play that lead to streakiness in performance… Read more »

Naplesfan
Reply to  Naplesfan
15 days ago

At the opening of the 2021 playoffs, most “experts” thought that the Bucs could beat the Washington Football team, though quite a few thought that the WFTers (as opposed to the WTFers) could still upset the Bucs playing at home.
Virtually nobody of any serious repute believed that the Bucs would survive the gauntlet of playing on the road against the Saints, Packers, and Chiefs .. even on game day morning of the Super Bowl, most of the money was on the Chiefs to repeat.
Then history happened.

drdneast
Reply to  Naplesfan
15 days ago

Well said Naplesfan. I concur.

gcolerick
16 days ago

If this team staid healthy and played their ‘A’ game every outing they would go undefeated. In my humble opinion there is no other team better on paper than the Bucs. They just need to not beat themselves to go undefeated. I’m not predicting an undefeated season just saying it is feasible.

Naplesfan
Reply to  gcolerick
15 days ago

It’s certainly feasible, based upon talent, coaching and attitude. Tom Brady is still POd that he didn’t produce a perfect season when his Pats lost essentially on one play at the end of the Super Bowl against the Giants. He’s been quoted that he would give two of his Super Bowl rings for an undefeated season – he wouldn’t say that unless it was motivating him to keep playing.
It’s obviously extremely difficult to pull off. And now it’s even one game more difficult starting this season – requiring 20 straight wins.

Horse
16 days ago

Bucs go 13-4

ScottC543
15 days ago

Yeah…..barring injury to a very significant player or two I just can’t see this team losing four games. A couple or three games I see as possibly going either way. The rest we will clearly be the better team on paper going in.

And if these guys come out swinging, and playing the way they were playing to end the season last year, look out NFL. This team and this season could end up being one of the best of all time. We’re just that damned good.

toofamiliar17
Reply to  ScottC543
15 days ago

To win just a 12, we’d actually have to lose 5 games in this new 17-game season.

Naplesfan
Reply to  ScottC543
15 days ago

Lots of possibilities going both directions. On paper, in terms of talent and past performance, our Bucs look very strong. So did San Francisco a couple years ago, and so did the Patriots a couple years ago. Then history happened.

seat26
15 days ago

12 wins should be no problem. The Division is weakened with Brees retiring, the schedule is easier, the entire team is back, the front office and coaching are intact.

scubog
15 days ago

Even though it’s meaningless, it’s kinda nice that our favorite team is actually being thought of in such high regard when, for much of the team’s history, even Rodney Dangerfield and Aretha Franklin got more respect. Many times I just looked for anyone to predict we wouldn’t be the absolute worst team in the league. Every other team’s fans would take the upcoming schedule and circle the Bucs’ game as an automatic win. Often they were right. I have learned to take nothing for granted. I’m going to enjoy these sunny days while they last and savor each victory. No… Read more »

SenileSenior
15 days ago

I will also add a “Well said!” to Naplesfan’s and Scubug’s comments.
While I will make no predictions for win/loss records at this time, I think a consensus of the top five teams will be the above-named teams. Attempting to quantify “intangibles” based on “objective” tangible criteria is what stat geeks do.
I’ll continue to echo the sentiment a la Chris Berman “That’s why they play the game!”. (Yes I know that he did not say it first but he repeated it many times over the years.)
________________
Go Bucs!!!

Spruce
15 days ago

Feeling pretty cocky aren’t you Bucs fans and perhaps you have every right to. That schedule and for the Super Bowl champ especially following the cup cake last year. How do you do it?? How was it possible Brady throws three interceptions against Green Bay and not only does it not cost the win the old man is still hailed as the guy that won the season for the Bucs and not a stellar defense. Tell me something. How often does a team, especially a team without a long term pedigree like the Bucs go back to back with Super… Read more »

Pete
Reply to  Spruce
14 days ago

I’ll bite! Nice to see a non Buc fan on a Buc blog and to say “cocky”. Lol. Well it has been like 20 years since the Bucs have won so there is a bit of cockiness. Confidence is a better word, I mean the 1st Superbowl it was Brad um not Tom. Plan B? Tom is the best Qb and surrounded by amazing talent . I dont even like talking injury but Tom again has played enough and will limit unneccessary hits. Anyways plan B is more like when Tom retires and who will be the Bucs QB. As… Read more »

Spruce
Reply to  Pete
12 days ago

Now that was a quality entry. Bucs and Pats fans are tied together this year especially. By Brady of course but with the looming contest in October. If Pat’s and Buc’s fans stay mutually exclusive in our separate venues how can we exchange some well intended chops busting. It is true I never thought the Bucs could be what they ended up to be in that final run but after reading the posts here all season neither did most of you Bucs fans. You were actually quite cruel on many occasions. In the end Brady was merely a capable QB… Read more »

scubog
Reply to  Spruce
14 days ago

I suspect Spruce is a Patriots fan who is annoyed by the little red and pewter headed kid who stole his trophy. At least get your facts straight. The 2003 Bucs went 7-9 not 5-11. Started the season strong, but fell off the “hill”.

Spruce
Reply to  scubog
12 days ago

Absolutely correct and there is no excuse. I related the 2004 season a miss on my part. A Pat’s fan indeed and ready to lunge and parry with you Buc’s fan as the season unfolds and we see how the teams perform leading up to the game in October. My view is you have nothing to win here and can only lose being the team to beat until you’re not. We Pat’s loving our underdog status for sure. I can correct you as well. We do not live in the past. The page has turned and frankly we like what… Read more »