It’s going to be a busy offseason for the Bucs. Not only does the team need to find a quarterback this spring, they also have 28 free agents to tend to. 10 of those free agents are starters, putting the Bucs 2022 roster turnover rate in question as free agency approaches. But the Bucs are in a solid spot with the cap, and have future flexibility as well. Whatever players they value enough to bring back will return in red and pewter.

As for each player’s cost, that remains to be seen. Few outlets project free agent contracts better than Pro Football Focus, largely due to the outstanding work of Brad Spielberger. Spielberger has been on the Pewter Report Podcast many times, including last offseason when he correctly predicted the Bucs would re-sign almost all of their free agents despite the cap constraints.

Now, Spielberger and the PFF team are projecting contracts for the Bucs 2022 free agents. Here are the projected numbers for each key Buccaneer free agent.

WR Chris Godwin

Contract Projection: 4 years, $70 million ($17.5M per year, $36.5 million total guaranteed)

Bucs WR Chris Godwin – Photo by: USA Today

Analysis: In terms of total value of the contract, $70 million would put Godwin in eighth place amongst NFL wide receivers. He’s a better player than several receivers ahead of him, including Kenny Golladay and Jarvis Landry. But Godwin’s injury could complicate things a little bit. Also, the market for wide receivers has dipped a little bit in recent years.

PFF doesn’t seem to consider Godwin a true No. 1 wide receiver, and the NFL may agree. But it wouldn’t surprise me if Godwin’s final contract ends up a little higher than this projection.

C Ryan Jensen

Contract Projection: 3 years, $30 million ($10M per year, $15 million total guaranteed)

Bucs C Ryan Jensen – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Analysis: This would be a pretty great price for the Bucs if they can get it. Currently, Jensen makes $10.5 million per year. A slight price reduction off of a Pro Bowl year would be great for the team. But is it realistic?

There are two ways to look at it. Jensen is almost 31 years old, and while he never missed a start for the Bucs, he’s played through injuries the past two seasons. Paying aging offensive linemen has not always gone well in free agency. For the Bucs, committing eight figures per year to a third offensive lineman is risky. Especially when Tristan Wirfs’ pay day isn’t that far down the road.

But for other teams, Jensen could command more. Perhaps even up to 12-13 million per year. When I asked Spielberger about it, he indicated Jensen’s price tag on the open market would likely be higher than the Bucs’ top offer. So we’ll see if Jensen wants to relocate one more time to finish his career or not.

CB Carlton Davis

Contract Projection: Franchise Tag

Analysis: It’s rare to see an offseason projection for Carlton Davis that doesn’t involve the franchise tag. That would cost the Bucs about $17 million against the cap. It’s possible they tag him, then work out a long-term extension. But it would be very surprising to see Davis hit the open market.

RB Leonard Fournette

Contract Projection: 2 years, $16 million ($8M per year, $11M total guaranteed)

Bucs RB Leonard Fournette – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Analysis: I don’t think Tom Brady’s absence will impact the re-signing of most Bucs players. However, for Leonard Fournette and the Bucs, it might. Tampa Bay has generally believed you can get by at running back without paying a heavy premium for them. Last year, Fournette would have gone elsewhere if he had any market. Instead, he returned to play another year with Brady and raise his stock.

That’s exactly what happened with Fournette, and now he’ll benefit from it this offseason. To me, there is no compelling reason to re-sign Fournette at $8 million per year. He’s not a good enough pure rusher to anchor a ground attack and effectively carry a big offensive load. And the Bucs should be focused on spending at position that will help them win in 2023 and 2024. A short deal for Fournette is unlikely to do that.

S Jordan Whitehead

Contract Projection: 3 years, $18 million ($6M per year, $11.5 million guaranteed)

Analysis: This seems like a perfectly reasonable contract for a player I now believe the Bucs should try to re-sign. At $6 million per year, that’s affordable for the Bucs. And right in line with Vonn Bell’s contract with the Bengals a couple years ago. I think Whitehead could command a bit more than this per year, but his price tag shouldn’t be so high the Bucs can’t bring him back. It’ll be interesting to see how this one plays out this spring. Non-elite safeties have often gotten the shaft in free agency.

RG Alex Cappa

Contract Projection: 4 years, $37 million ($9.25M per year), $20 million total guaranteed

Bucs RG Alex Cappa – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Analysis: A contract like this would make Cappa one of the league’s higher-paid guards. Amongst right guards, Cappa would rank fifth in per year earnings. The Bucs can do it if they want to, but will they? They’re already committed to one of the best guards in football for almost $11 million per year. Cappa is a good player who hasn’t missed much regular season action since becoming a starter. But ultimately, his position is up there with running back as one of the more replaceable spots in the league.

Losing Cappa and Jensen would hurt the Bucs some. But steady, affordable options at center and guard are always available. Again, Tampa Bay could pay both of them. But it probably wouldn’t be the wisest allotment of resources moving forward. We’ll see what the market says.

**IMPORTANT NOTE: Expect to see some adjustments to PFF’s contract projections following the Super Bowl.**