In the NFL, Cover 4 refers to a defensive coverage that aims to cover four deep zones on the field. Following that lead, I’m going to provide you with the same coverage of the Bucs – your favorite football team. Each Wednesday I’ll cover four areas as they apply to Tampa Bay: 1. a short film breakdown, 2. a finance angle, 3. a look forward at what’s to come, and 4. a bit of fun.

Film: Josiah Trotter’s Bucs Debut

After getting his first NFL action, the Bucs must be pleased with what they saw out of rookie inside linebacker Josiah Trotter. He played almost exclusively against the New York Jets’ starters and looked fully the part of an NFL starter himsefl. There is only so much that can be gleaned from 15 snaps playing next to mostly backups, but there was still plenty of positives from the team’s second-round pick. Trotter showed high-level processing skills and plus straight-line athleticism, while executing his assignments in coverage.

Processing and Instincts

Trotter was quick to read his run keys. Even better he was decisive in moving on them. It helped him play fast into his designated holes. What impressed me the most was how well he read out run plays with multiple moving parts in varying directions. He didn’t fall for the counter. He was constantly following pullers to get to the front side of plays.

The Bucs have a long history of instinctual linebackers in their lore. It’s way too early to say Trotter is the next ‘backer to take that mantle. But he’s certainly got a shot. Those instincts extended to the passing game, which is critically the biggest question mark on his current resumé. He picked up a crosser from the boundary quickly and didn’t get sucked in on play action.

Athleticism

Trotter was quick to trigger into gaps and leveraged his processing to get to spots quickly. He’s an NFL athlete, but not an elite one. From my evaluation of him in college he just seems faster than what I was expecting, which is a pleasant surprise. He was able to flow to the flats to pick up backs easily, but he wasn’t tested truly in this area.

He did show plenty of strength for his position and fought off blockers. And Trotter’s shed attempts including slips to the side, displaying good hip dexterity to play around as well as through opponents.

Block engagement

Trotter had some wins and losses in this area. He was able to throw off Josh Myers on one rep but struggled to disengage on Braelon Allen’s 31-yard touchdown. At other points he was able to slip a block on a toss play to register a tackle. It wasn’t a perfect night for him, but he showed enough that this should be a strength of his game going forward.

Beyond getting off of blocks, he should win plenty with timing by just beating blockers to their spot. That’s an encouraging sign.

Bucs ILB Josiah Trotter – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Coverage

New York didn’t test Trotter too much in this game. Most of his assignments involved him covering a flat against a back. The two tests that I am looking to see if he passes are:

First, does he have a feel for depth spacing on routes that develop behind him. Can he get depth to kill the intermediate crossers, seams and digs that have often plagued the Bucs’ defense? This game didn’t provide Trotter with any opportunities to answer that question.

And second, can he hold his positioning against play action and not get sucked too far in and vacate the middle of the field? On this front Trotter did well, albeit on a small sample size. Especially when juxtaposed against his quick trigger on actual run plays. Trotter maintained discipline while balancing the difficult task of being a part of both the front seven and the back seven.

Pass rush

The Bucs only asked Trotter to rush the passer once in this game. He was the trail man on a cross-dog blitz. He executed his assignment well, timing up with Nick Jackson to gain access to the left A-gap. The shape of his bend into the gap was a bit wide, but that’s just me splitting hairs. This part of his game is exciting, and I hope to see more in this week’s game against Kansas City.

Overall, an exciting debut for the 2026 second-round pick.

Finance: Using Guarantees To Interpret Roster Spots

One week into the preseason and everyone is speculating what the initial 53-man roster might look like after the final cuts are made to end training camp. The vast majority of roster spots are already guaranteed. And to figure out the final spots, it’s informative to look at other guarantees. What I mean by that is guaranteed salary.

It’s not quite what you might think at first blush. A $300,000 guarantee isn’t going to stop a team from cutting a player. But it can show how much they like a player as a signal of who they are leaning towards keeping and who they are leaning towards cutting. With that in mind, keep these guaranteed figures in your thought lexicon as you make your own final 53-man roster predictions.

Ko Kieft – $600,000 Guaranteed Salary

The Bucs tight end room is one of the more fascinating training camp battles. Cade Otton is entrenched as the starter after signing a sizeable three-year, $30 million contract in the offseason. Payne Durham, who is entering a contract year, appears to have the TE2 spot at this juncture. His 2025 season was disappointing from a receiving standpoint, but he made himself into a solid blocker.

Beyond those two it might be anyone’s guess. Sixth-round pick Bauer Sharp is an intriguing prospect. He had some solid reps in his first preseason action and provides a good mix of athleticism and blocking potential. And Devin Culp showed up in a way most did not expect on Friday, blocking well in limited snaps.

But Culp faces an uphill battle. The Bucs guaranteed almost half of Ko Kieft’s salary this year. And for good reason.

Rakeem Nunez-Roches

The Bucs’ depth at defensive line is best described as “intriguing.” The top three are solidified with Vita Vea, A’Shawn Robinson and Calijah Kancey. Elijah Roberts’ spot on the roster is all but assured. Beyond them there is an unheralded group of young players who all bring a useful trait or two to the team. DeMonte Capehart, Josiah Green, Jayson Jones and Elijah Simmons are all vying for one of the final spots on the defensive line depth chart. But that spot is probably not DT5.

Bucs DT Rakeem Nunez-Roches – Photo by: Brian Collera/PR

That spot most likely belongs to Rakeem Nunez-Roches. The former and now current Buccaneer got $300,000 guaranteed when the team signed him to a one-year, $1.3 million deal. The team loves Nacho’s fiery demeanor and clubhouse presence in addition to his consistency. The guarantees signal how much they love it. And it signals their intent on including him on the final roster.

Forecast: Zac Robinson Will Use 12 Personnel to Create Matchup Advantages

One of the more popular macro trends in the NFL recently has been the uptick in heavier personnel on offense. The league used two or more tight ends on 27% of plays last year – up 6% since 2021. Zac Robinson has been a big part of that trend. He was well above average in both 12 and 13 personnel last year, totaling 45% of all of the Falcons’ plays.

While conventional wisdom would say teams are going heavy to run the ball more often and more efficiently. But in reality, NFL offensive minds are going heavy to get into more advantageous passing opportunities. And one play from the Bucs’ preseason game against the Jets was so fascinating to me.

This was second-and-6 from Tampa Bay’s own 15-yard line. Robinson chose to go with 12 personnel in a situation that reasonably could have supported as condensed set run to set up third-and-short. In response the Jets trotted out their base personnel – three interior defensive linemen, two edge rushers, two inside linebackers and four defensive backs.

Bucs OC Zac Robinson – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Robinson then put all five of his eligibles spread out as receivers forcing the Jets into an uncomfortable situation. Regardless of their initial intentions they were forced into Cover 1 with Brandon Stephens in the slot matched up against Ted Hurst. That’s Brandon Stephens who has all of 51 slot snaps in five seasons. That’s a man coverage matchup that allows for a straight-forward read and a leverage option. This plays right into the Bucs offense’s hands. It generated a first down on this play.

Robinson went back to that same play in the fourth quarter, this time trying to isolate Garrett Greene.

But extrapolating from that, I envision this being a specific staple of Robinson’s offense in 2026. Go heavy to dictate the personnel matchup. Spread to get specific defenders into less-than-ideal matchups or positions. Then exploit.

The 2025 season was about getting into 12 and 13 personnel to get to play-action. I am confident Robinson will do that. But I believe this will be the next evolution of that shift.

Fun Fourth Down: Interesting Hypotheticals

I recently posted an “Ask Me Anything” on social media. Some of the asks were quite interesting and I thought I would share with you, along with my thoughts on the prompts.

How much would positional value affect Aaron Donald in today’s game? Would he make as much a Will Anderson, Myles Garrett, etc. Or would him being a DT cap his value?

Aaron Donald signed a three-year, $95 million contract in 2022. His $31.67 million APY was 15.2% of the salary cap that year. It still stands as the largest cap-adjusted APY that Over the Cap has recorded for an interior defensive lineman. Applied to the current salary cap, that deal would translate to a $45.78 million APY – over $7 million per year over Jalen Carter’s current league-leading APY for interior defensive linemen.

On its surface that would leave him about 10% short of Will Anderson Jr.’s $50 million APY. But Donald’s APY at the time also cleared the next closest interior defensive lineman (Leornard Williams) by 32%. A 32% increase on Carter’s $38 million APY is $50.25M, just barely edging out Anderson. So it’s very possible a prime Aaron Donald could overcome his positional value and be the highest paid non-quarterback in the NFL.

Maybe let’s look towards next offseason. Tweeze (Antoine Winfield Jr.) may be looking for an extension here soon. Could we see Tweeze getting another deal in the Derwin James ballpark?

Winfield played well last year as a primarily post safety. But he lacks the splash plays that fueled his record-setting 2024 contract. Using Pro Football Focus’ statistical accounting, which my contract projection database relies on, Winfield had 18 pressures, six sacks, 26 defensive stops, six forced fumbles, seven passes defensed and three interceptions in 2023. Compare that to last year when those numbers were 15, one, 20, one, six and two, respectively. That would affect his market considerably.

My projection models put Winfield’s current value at $16.62 million APY. The comp negotiation between him and the Bucs would probably start about $9 million apart with a settle point right around his current APY ($21 million). But I don’t think the team has any interest in extending him until his current deal is up.

The last one comes from my good friend (and colleague) Jay Recher.

Lawrence Taylor led the NFL in sacks in 1986 with 20.5 sacks. PFF doesn’t track their metrics back that far so I have to do quite a bit of estimating and extrapolating from that. But assuming a league average sack convergence rate, plus the fact he was coming off of an MVP season, it’s safe to say he would clear Will Anderson Jr. just like Aaron Donald might. I’d price him at $50.75 million APY.