FAB 3. Winston’s Magic Number

What’s the magic number for Jameis Winston and the Buccaneers?

No, I’m not talking about how much money Winston should ask for in contract negotiations or what the Bucs should counter with.

Nor am I talking about how many years the Bucs should offer Winston on a new contract.

Bucs QB Jameis Winston – Photo by: Getty Images

The Bucs haven’t made up their mind if they want Winston back as their quarterback yet or if there is an upgrade available in free agency (the unofficial tampering period officially kicks off at the NFL Scouting Combine in about a week, followed by the official tampering period on March 16 – free agency officially begins on March 18). And if they do want Winston to return to Tampa Bay, the Bucs haven’t necessarily settled on what price they would be willing to pay him, either.

Before they can come to that conclusion, they need to investigate the magic number first. The magic number is the fewest amount of interceptions allowed in order to get to the playoffs.

With a quarterback like Winston that has thrown a league-high 88 interceptions since entering the league as the top pick in the 2015 NFL Draft and averaged 17.6 interceptions per season, the question the Bucs are pondering isn’t just how many fewer picks Winston can throw in 2020, but what is the actual limit on INTs thrown in terms of getting Tampa Bay into the playoffs?

Winston is coming off a season in which he threw a career-high and NFL-high 30 interceptions. That was nine more than the closest quarterback, Cleveland’s Baker Mayfield, who tossed 21 in his second year in the league. The fewest amount of interceptions Winston has thrown in a season was 11 in 13 games in 2017. Here is the number of touchdowns and interceptions Winston has thrown since joining the Bucs:

Winston’s TDs/INTs Since 2015
2015: 22/15 (differential of 7)
2016: 28/18 (differential of 10)
2017: 19/11 (differential of 8)
2018: 19/14 (differential of 5)
2019: 33/30 (differential of 3)

Despite gaining more experience with more playing time, Winston has thrown just as many total interceptions over the last two years as he did the first three seasons combined in Tampa Bay.

Winston’s TDs/INTs – First 3 Years
69/44 (differential of 15)

Winston’s TDs/INTs – Last 2 Years
52/44 (differential of 8)

Bucs QB Jameis Winston – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Winston’s interceptions are one thing, but how do his number of interceptions compare to those of all of the playoff quarterbacks over the past five years?

Let’s list all of the TDs/INTs for all 60 playoff quarterbacks (36 different QBs) since 2015 and see what conclusions we can draw from this data. We’ll include Winston’s TDs/INTs in each of those years too for comparison, even though he and the Bucs didn’t make the playoffs.

PLAYOFF QBs TDs/INTs – 2019
Jimmy Garoppolo 27/13 (SB)
DeShaun Watson 26/12
Josh Allen 20/9
Tom Brady 24/8
Carson Wentz 27/7
Kirk Cousins 26/6
Ryan Tannehill 22/6
Russell Wilson 31/5
Patrick Mahomes 26/5 (SB)
Drew Brees 27/4
Aaron Rodgers 26/4
Lamar Jackson 36/6
**Jameis Winston 33/30

PLAYOFF QBs TDs/INTs – 2018
Andrew Luck 39/15
Patrick Mahomes 50/12
Philip Rivers 32/12
Jared Goff 32/12 (SB)
Mitchell Trubisky 24/12
Tom Brady 29/11 (SB)
DeShaun Watson 26/9
Dak Prescott 22/8
Russell Wilson 35/7
Carson Wentz 21/7
Joe Flacco 12/6
Drew Brees 32/5
**Jameis Winston 19/14

PLAYOFF QBs TDs/INTs – 2017
Cam Newton 22/16
Marcus Mariota 13/15
Ben Roethlisberger 28/14
Blake Bortles 21/13
Matt Ryan 20/12
Tom Brady 32/8 (SB)
Drew Brees 23/8
Carson Wentz 33/7 (SB)
Jared Goff 28/7
Case Keenum 22/7
Alex Smith 26/5
Tyrod Taylor 14/4
**Jameis Winston 19/11

PLAYOFF QBs TDs/INTs – 2016
Eli Manning 26/16
Blake Osweiler 15/16
Ben Roethlisberger 29/13
Ryan Tannehill 19/12
Russell Wilson 21/11
Matthew Stafford 24/10
Alex Smith 15/8
Aaron Rodgers 40/7
Matt Ryan 38/7 (SB)
Derek Carr 28/6
Dak Prescott 23/4
Tom Brady 28/2 (SB)
**Jameis Winston 28/18

PLAYOFF QBs TDs/INTs – 2015
Peyton Manning 9/17 (SB)
(Blake Osweiler (10/6 in seven starts)) (SB)
Ben Roethlisberger 21/16
Carson Palmer 35/11
Kirk Cousins 29/11
Cam Newton 35/10 (SB)
Teddy Bridgewater 14/9
Russell Wilson 34/8
Aaron Rodgers 31/8
Tom Brady 35/7
Andy Dalton 25/7
Alex Smith 20/7
Bryan Hoyer 19/7
**Jameis Winston 22/15

Okay, so what can we conclude from these numbers? The highest number of interceptions a quarterback has thrown and still made the playoffs was 17 from Peyton Manning’s injury-filled season in 2015.

Ironically, Manning and the Broncos won the Super Bowl that year, but it was the Denver defense that really carried the team throughout that year. And keep in mind that Blake Osweiler started seven games that season and threw 10 TDs and only six INTs. Manning is certainly outlier in this study.

If you average the most interceptions thrown by playoff quarterbacks in each regular season – from Manning’s 17 in 2015 to Jimmy Garoppolo’s 13, which was the most in 2019 – over the last five years, the average number of INTs is 15.4.

While Winston has thrown 15 or fewer interceptions three times in his career, he’s done it only once over a full 16-game season, and that was his rookie season. Winston threw 11 interceptions in 13 games in 2017, and tossed 14 picks in 11 games in 2018.

Getting to the playoffs is one thing, but winning a Super Bowl is the objective. Only two QBs have made it to the Super Bowl over the last five years with more than 12 INTs – Garoppolo’s 13 last season and Manning’s 17 in 2015. That means that the other eight quarterbacks to appear in the Super Bowl had 12 INTs or less.

Bucs QB Jameis Winston – Photo by: Getty Images

Winston has only done that once in his career – and just in 13 games during the 2017 season.

So the magic number for Winston and the Bucs is 15 interceptions to make the playoffs, and that would mean him cutting his number of picks last year in half. Does Tampa Bay think Winston could do that and guide the Bucs to the playoffs in 2020?

Yet to get to the Super Bowl and have a chance of winning it, the magic number is throwing 12 interceptions or less during the regular season.

Winston’s career average is 17.6 INTs per year and it would take quite a career year for him to reduce his interception total below that one season after throwing 30. How much do the Bucs believe Winston can do that?

That’s the magic question.