FAB 3. If One Of The “Top 3” Falls To Tampa Bay It Will Be Nelson

Two weeks ago in a previous SR’s Fab 5 column, I wrote how Tampa Bay needed to draft Penn State running back Saquon Barkley if he fell to the team at No. 7 in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft. I stand by that statement, and the fact that Bucs general manager Jason Licht revealed that he had Barkley in for a Top 30 pre-draft visit confirms it for me.

“We had him in, so there’s some news for you,” Bucs general manager Jason Licht said in his pre-draft press conference on Thursday, April 19. “We don’t broadcast everybody that we bring in, but he’s a great player. Everybody I know that’s not even working in football knows that he’s a great player. He’s a great kid, checks all of those boxes but he’s not the only great player in this draft.”

Yet I don’t believe he is the likeliest of the “Top 3” players – Barkley, North Carolina State defensive end Bradley Chubb and Notre Dame guard Quenton Nelson – to slide down to No. 7. I don’t think Chubb or Barkley makes it past No. 4, but Nelson might.

Penn State RB Saquon Barkley – Photo by: Getty Images

And that’s the reason I don’t see the Bucs trading down from the No. 7 pick – certainly not before Licht is on the clock. He’ll want to see if one of those “Top 3” players slides down to No. 7 first before contemplating trading down.

With less than a week to go before the NFL Draft, I believe that there is a chance that four quarterbacks go in the top 10 – possibly in the top 5. Cleveland seems to be zeroing in on USC quarterback Sam Darnold, and the New York Jets appear to be favoring Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield.

Denver general manager John Elway said that the No. 5 pick is up for sale, so he could very well trade down if the quarterback he wants is no longer available. If it doesn’t take Nelson, Indianapolis is likely to going to take a defensive player like Chubb if he’s there, or Ohio State cornerback Denzel Ward at No. 6 right before the Bucs select.

The real wild card team in all of this is the New York Giants. New general manager Dave Gettleman invested a lot of draft picks on offensive linemen in Carolina, and he missed out on free agent guard Andrew Norwell in free agency. Protecting quarterback Eli Manning is a priority, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him take Nelson, who some teams have as the top-rated talent in the draft.

With Gettleman trading Jason Pierre-Paul to the Bucs for a third-round pick, I could also see him drafting Chubb at No. 2 due to the need for a defensive end to replace him. There is also talk that Gettleman could draft Barkley to help take some of the offensive load off Manning.

Of course the Giants could surprise everybody by drafting a quarterback like Josh Rosen to be the heir apparent to Eli Manning. Then the Browns would have their choice of Chubb or Barkley at No. 4.

Would Cleveland draft Barkley at No. 4 to pair him with Darnold? A lot of the pre-draft buzz has the Browns taking Chubb to pair with defensive end Myles Garrett, last year’s No. 1 overall pick, if the Giants don’t.

The Broncos could either select UCLA QB Josh Rosen or Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen or trade down with Buffalo, who seems the most desperate to move up – and has the ammunition to do it with two first-round picks.

Here are three scenarios where Nelson could fall to Tampa Bay at No. 7.

Scenario 1
1. Cleveland – QB Sam Darnold
2. NY Giants – RB Saquon Barkley
3. NY Jets (via trade with Indianapolis) – QB Baker Mayfield
4. Cleveland (via trade with Houston) – DE Bradley Chubb
5. Denver (or Buffalo via trade) – QB Josh Rosen
6. Indianapolis (via trade with NY Jets) – CB Denzel Ward
7. Tampa Bay – G Quenton Nelson

Scenario 2
1. Cleveland – QB Sam Darnold
2. NY Giants – DE Bradley Chubb
3. NY Jets (via trade with Indianapolis) – QB Baker Mayfield
4. Cleveland (via trade with Houston) – RB Saquon Barkley
5. Denver (or Buffalo via trade) – QB Josh Allen
6. Indianapolis (via trade with NY Jets) – CB Denzel Ward
7. Tampa Bay – G Quenton Nelson

Scenario 3
1. Cleveland – QB Sam Darnold
2. NY Giants – QB Josh Rosen
3. NY Jets (via trade with Indianapolis) – QB Baker Mayfield
4. Cleveland (via trade with Houston) – RB Saquon Barkley
5. Denver (or Buffalo via trade) – QB Josh Allen
6. Indianapolis (via trade with NY Jets) – DE Bradley Chubb
7. Tampa Bay – G Quenton Nelson

Would the Bucs take Nelson over a defensive back Ward, Washington defensive tackle Vita Vea or Florida State strong safety Derwin James, even though guard may not be a pressing need now that Ali Marpet moves back to guard with the arrival of new center Ryan Jensen? The answer is yes.

Nelson is that good.

At 6-foot-5, 329 pounds, Nelson, who was featured in PewterReport.com’s initial 2018 Bucs’ 7-Round Mock Draft, is built like a brick house. He benched 225 pounds 35 times at the NFL Scouting Combine and Nelson used that strength to maul and pound defensive tackles into submission.

Notre Dame left guard Quenton Nelson – Photo by: Getty Images

He’s is the type of guard the Bucs were hoping J.R. Sweezy would be when they signed him two years ago, only Nelson is more talented. Drafting Nelson would solidify the interior of Tampa Bay’s offensive line and pave the way for Peyton Barber and whoever the Bucs draft at running back to run inside, which was a struggle last year when Sweezy and Kevin Pamphile were at guard, while Marpet was adjusting to playing center for the first time.

Let’s not forget two important things. First, Dirk Koetter is an offensive-minded head coach and calls the plays. He and offensive coordinator Todd Monken has to improve the team’s red zone scoring this year, and Nelson could go a long way in helping the team convert third-and-goal situations instead of settling for field goals.

And second, the Bucs offense struggled last year in pass protection, especially up the middle, and quarterback Jameis Winston was injured for most of the season. With Winston set to play next year on his fifth-year option for over $20 million, keeping him upright and healthy is always a paramount concern. Nelson proved to be a quality pass protector at Notre Dame.

While a guard may not be the sexiest pick at No. 7, it would be the right pick for Licht if Nelson were to slide down to Tampa Bay.