FAB 2. Bucs’ First Quarter Scoring Plummets

Tampa Bay started off the 2020 season with a bang.

Literally.

Bucs quarterback Tom Brady marched the offense down the field in New Orleans on Tampa Bay’s first drive of the year and scored a touchdown on its first possession in Week 1. The Bucs would go on to lose that game, but a strong performance in the first quarter helped Tampa Bay outscore opponents 38-14 in the first five games of the year.

Bucs QB Tom Brady – Photo by: USA Today

Since then, Tampa Bay has been outscored 38-10 in the first quarter of games over the last month of the season. While the Bucs have been able to overcome being outscored in games against Green Bay, Las Vegas and New York, Tampa Bay certainly couldn’t overcome a 14-0 deficit to New Orleans in Sunday night’s 38-3 debacle.

Falling behind early typically isn’t a problem for a team with a high-powered offense like the Bucs. But where it can have a negative effect is on defense where it allowed teams like the Giants and the Saints to run the ball against the Bucs and prevented Tampa Bay defensive coordinator Todd Bowles from doing what he does best, which is use exotic blitz packages out of nickel defense.

Additionally, having a lead can put opponents into pass-only situations like the Bucs offense found itself in on Sunday night, falling behind 21-0 just minutes into the second quarter, and ultimately 31-0 at halftime.

The Bucs led the Raiders, 21-10, at halftime before losing 45-20, and Las Vegas only rushed for 76 yards because it fell behind. However, the Giants led 14-6 at halftime before the Bucs made a fourth quarterback comeback in a 25-23 victory, and New York was able to rush for 101 yards and a touchdown against Tampa Bay’s No. 1 ranked rushing defense as a result.

The Saints had the most success on the ground against the Bucs in their 38-3 victory, rushing for 138 yards and a touchdown on Sunday night.

It’s no surprise that Tampa Bay’s sack production, especially from the defensive line and the outside linebackers, has dipped in each of the last three games, as the Bucs haven’t been able to get a lead in the first quarter. Tampa Bay, which has had three games with five sacks or more this season, had just three sacks against both Las Vegas and New York, and only one versus New Orleans.

Bucs ILB Devin White – Photo by: USA Today

Inside linebacker Devin White had four of those seven sacks against the Raiders (three) and the Giants (one), which means that the rest of the defensive front only had three sacks, which simply isn’t good enough.

So why have the Bucs struggled offensively over the last month of the season?

“Third-down conversions,” Bucs head coach Bruce Arians said. “We’re not maintaining possession of the football long enough to start games right now.”

That was glaring against the Saints with the Bucs having three-and-outs on their first four drives. Tampa Bay also a three-and-out offensively to start the Green Bay and Las Vegas games, too. The Bucs were connecting on 42 percent of their third downs earlier in the season, but the team has slipped to 40 percent over the last month of the year.

“When you’re playing a third-and-4, you should be winning 70 percent of the time,” Arians said. “Our goal is to always play in third-and-6 or less – [it’s] very manageable. We had way too many third-and-longs because of sacks. Not being able to run the football hurt in that [Saints game] and we’ve just missed a couple early third-down plays that normally we were hitting early, getting jump-started and getting going.”

Brady concurred with Arians’ assessment.

“Well, third down is a tough down in football, period,” Brady said. “I think the key is first and second down. Third downs are a lot better when you do well on first and second down.”

Tampa Bay had its biggest first quarter lead against Carolina in Week 2, a 14-0 start that resulted in a 31-17 victory. The Panthers got off to a 14-0 start themselves in Week 4 when they upset the Cardinals, 31-21. Carolina has barely outscored the competition, 52-51, in the first quarter in the first nine games of the season, including a 7-3 margin in last week’s 33-31 loss at Kansas City.

Bucs QB Tom Brady – Photo by: USA Today

When asked about Tampa Bay’s struggles in the first quarter over the last month, Bucs quarterback Tom Brady was at a loss for an explanation.

“We’ve just got to execute better – we’ve got to figure it out,” Brady said. “Those are all good questions. I wish I had the precise answer for you because we’d be doing it. There’s no magic play, there’s no magic anything. You just go out there and do your job at a much higher level.”