FAB 2. What Does The Future Hold For Winston?

I’ll admit that I was surprised that the NFL handed Bucs quarterback Jameis Winston a three-game suspension due to the investigation surrounding allegations of inappropriate sexual conduct with a female Uber driver in the 2016 offseason. I suspected he would get hit with a two-game suspension that would be appealed down to a one-game suspension for the sake of optics for the league.

I assumed this was a he-said, she-said incident without much evidence – not enough evidence to truly find Winston of anything concretely nefarious. I don’t know all the facts, as the release of Winston’s three-game suspension hasn’t been made official yet – only reported by ESPN’s Adam Schefter among others – but it looks like my assumption was wrong.

It appears as if there were more facts than we first suspected, and unfortunately more facts than Winston led us to believe there were. The fact that NFL Network’s Mike Garafalo reported that Ronald Darby, Winston’s friend and former Florida State teammate, was not in the Uber ride for the entire trip is troubling when that is what we were led to believe, as is the fact that the NFL investigated Winston’s electronic communications and apparently found something there that didn’t sit well with the league.

Bucs QB Jameis Winton – Photo by: Mark Cook/PR

Winston has maintained his innocence since the incident first became public last November, but a three-game suspension by the league implies that the league found him guilty of something in some form of fashion. Yet to date we don’t know of any criminal or civil filings against Winston for the alleged sexual groping. As of now, it doesn’t appear that there are any.

So what does this mean for Winston’s future with the Bucs? Does the team cut him or trade him, as my good friend Tom Jones wrote for the Tampa Bay Times?

No, certainly not yet.

The key thing for Winston, as it pertains to his future with the Buccaneers, was if he was completely honest and forthright when discussing this matter with general manager Jason Licht, head coach Dirk Koetter and the Glazers.

If he wasn’t, that could spell trouble in Tampa Bay with a capital “T.”

Trouble for Winston, who is in the final year of his original rookie deal, and wants a contract extension – and trouble for the Bucs themselves, who picked up the fifth-year option on Winston’s contract that is set to pay him $20.922 million in 2019.

One thing is certain from this suspension – any planned contract extension talks have been put on hold.

The Bucs’ plan was to lock up three members of the 2015 draft class – Pro Bowl middle linebacker Kwon Alexander, left guard Ali Marpet and left tackle Donovan Smith – to long-term contract extensions before the start of the 2018 regular season. With Winston’s fifth-year option picked up for next season, the team and the franchise quarterback would work on a long-term deal during the 2019 offseason – or season.

Following a three-game suspension, and word from the league that the next off-the-field infraction could lead to a year-long suspension, do you think the Bucs are in a hurry to commit $100 million to Winston?

Absolutely not – and rightfully so.

QB Jameis Winston – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

If I’m Licht, Koetter, and especially the Glazers – since it’s their money – I’m waiting until the 2020 offseason before committing to Winston long term. Because this incident happened in March of 2016 following his rookie season, I would want to see if Winston can remain incident-free for three straight years – 2017, 2018 and 2019.

If Winston, who is 24, can do that and prove that he has matured, and that his upcoming fatherhood and marriage can change him for the better, then that would seem to be a much-needed step in the right direction.

The fact that the NFL is releasing details of its suspension now – an official statement from the league and the Buccaneers is expected as early as Friday, June 22 – while the team is on is summer hiatus until late July means that we may not have answers to some important questions for a while.

I’d like to know why Winston isn’t planning on appealing his suspension. Does this mean some admission of guilt and a backtracking of his previous claim of innocence? Or does he just want to get this punishment over with and move on without this looming on for more months – or perhaps longer?

Is Winston’s decision not to appeal financially motivated? Winston’s three-game suspension this year would cost him $124,000 of his $705,000 base salary. If the appeal process were to drag into 2019 when his salary skyrockets to $20.922 million and he were to lose his appeal, a three-game suspension without pay would cost him $3.7 million.

That’s a huge difference.

And if the decision not to appeal is money motivated, how does the team feel about that?

The person who may feel chafed the most by this is Koetter, who is a firm believer in the best ability being availability. Not having his starting quarterback available for three games in a season where he begins on the hot seat following a disappointing 5-11 campaign doesn’t help Koetter’s job security in Tampa Bay.

Bucs QB Jameis Winston and head coach Dirk Koetter – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Because of this suspension, can it void Winston’s fifth-year option of having to pay Winston $20.922 million if the team so chooses? I think that’s the case, but would like to know for sure.

Unless Winston wasn’t completely truthful in discussing this incident with Licht, Koetter and the Glazers I would expect the team to fully stand behind their quarterback one more time – perhaps one last time.

This franchise has way too much time and money invested in a talented, 24-year old gunslinger to part ways with him now – despite what Jones wrote in the Tampa Bay Times.

But if I’m the Bucs, I’m hedging my bets and I’m brining in Teddy Bridgewater for a physical and would considering signing him – not necessarily for this year, but for the future if he’s deemed healthy. This will likely be Fitzpatrick’s final season in the NFL, and the Bucs still have no idea what third-string Ryan Griffin can offer for the long term as he has yet to take a snap during the regular season.

And if I’m Licht, I’m telling my scouts to study the quarterbacks in the draft class of 2019 hard because Tampa Bay is going to draft one next April – whether or not Winston has another character misstep between now and then.

The two big knocks on Winston coming out of Florida State were his character and his penchant for throwing interceptions. Three years into his NFL career it’s unfortunate that he has yet to dispel either.