About the author

Scott Reynolds

Scott Reynolds is in his 23rd year of covering the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the vice president, publisher and senior Bucs beat writer for PewterReport.com. Author of the popular SR's Fab 5 column on Fridays, Reynolds oversees web development and forges marketing partnerships for PewterReport.com in addition to his editorial duties. A graduate of Kansas State University in 1995, Reynolds enjoys giving back to the community as the defensive line coach for his sons' Pop Warner team, the South Pasco Predators. Reynolds can be reached at: [email protected]

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40 Comments

  1. 1

    Pete Wood

    I really hope Bucs trade down. We need picks desperately.
    My favorite scenario is the least likely, but we’d be in great shape if we traded with New England.
    Assuming the Bucs don’t draft stupid.

    1. 1.1

      FLBoy84

      Barring a couple questionable picks, especially the move up to draft “he who shall not be named”, Licht has a pretty solid draft history for the first 4-5 rounds. The FO seems much more in tune with the type of player they’re targeting, so wouldn’t expect any “stupid” moves, but ya’ never know I guess.

  2. 2

    tbb345

    It’s amazing to me how many writers slavishly stick to and reference a point system for trades involving draft picks that is clearly outdated.
    Not only is the system outdated but it’s clearly completely useless when teams are trying to move up into the top 10 to take a QB. In literally every trade where a team has traded up to take a QB in the last 5 years, the team trading down’s value has blown away the point system.
    Basically, it’s worthless to use that chart to draw up trade scenarios. I can guarantee if the Bucs do trade back with the Bills it will be for more than what Scott proposes in this article.

    Also, taking Vea over Barkley would be a great way to alienate even more fans. I think there would be riots at all of the local draft viewing parties

    1. 2.1

      Pete Wood

      I agree. I think Bucs should throw the trade value charts out the window and get the maximum value for their pick. If a team wants to move up enough, that team will pay.

      The value of a pick is whatever somebody wants to pay. It’s not like trading stocks and bonds.

    2. 2.2

      Destino102

      I am hoping we pull off the NE trade, and your right about the trade value charts being irrelevant when it comes to a QB top 10 pick. If I am Jason, I would need both of NE 1st round pick, 1 of their 2nds and their 3rd. I would then try to trade the 23rd and the 2nd rounder we got from NE to try to get back into the top 15 to get either Derwin or Vita if they are still there. Take our RB with pick # 31, and our 2nd rounder on whatever CB we like. And we also got back a 3rd we can used on BPA.

      1. 2.2.1

        Freeman Strickland

        I would love to see it. But, those picks are worth a little more than Cleveland’s fourth overall pick. How long has it been since the Patriots paid that sort of premium?

    3. 2.3

      Reynaldo Viera

      I really have no ideas what’s PRs fascination with Vea, they question Hurts stats but fail to mention that Vea only had 9.5 sacks and 15 tackles for loss in his college career. Vea will not get drafted in the top 10 and I’ll take Ward over Vea everyday and twice on Sunday. Vea won’t hold Donald’s jock no matter how much PR wants to push him on us. I’m all for the trenches but to draft a Nose Takle in the top 10 better yet the 1st rd because he’s an underwear warrior is idiotic. If we make the mistake of drafting I hope he makes me eat all my words but I just don’t see it.

  3. 3

    e

    Nice Fab 5, Scott… I wouldn’t discount the Dolphins in a trade, either… They are hot for Mayfield. I like your list of players that you’d pick at #7… I’d go Nelson, Chubb, (Trade), James, Barkley, Fitzpatrick. I’m really rooting for a trade though…

  4. 4

    Cody

    So thankful that Tampa is staying away from Taven Bryan. Literally no idea why he is even being considered in the first round.

    1. 4.1

      Kevin

      Um have you seen any of his film? Hes a very good player, with a gerald mccoy-esque first step. I’d put money down he gets drafted in the first round. I agree though, would rather see the bucs help out some other positions.

      1. 4.1.1

        Cody

        Yeah I’ve watched some of his film. He didn’t look nearly as good as Maurice Hurst, Vita, or Payne. Maybe I just watched a bad game he had though. Send me a good one that isn’t just a highlight tape and I’ll watch it.

  5. 5

    Jonathan Goodfellow

    I personally believe the Bucs can get more than Scott suggests here with the trade charts.

    QB related trades typically trash the standard trade values. Especially if there are multiple teams looking to move up. For instance, look at how the Jets MASSIVELY overpaid according to the charts. I do get that they were also paying for the most prime QB spot available.

    Still, with BUF, MIA, AZ, heck even the Saints and the Pats potentially looking to move up, I think Licht can squeeze a little more.

    1. 5.1

      Jonathan Goodfellow

      Especially if 3 Qbs have been taken, that leaves 1 of the “top” QBs still on the board. Someone is going to want to pay a premium for one of the top QBs, theres a drop off after that where the remaining QBs are all very late 1st, or 2nd/3rd day picks

  6. 6

    Mike Wright

    iF THE TOP 4 QB’S are gone, its gonna be real hard to find a trade partner to move down with. Even then, many teams will not bite. So I see the Bucs staying put. One of the top players will still be there. Barkley or Nelson. I’m not enthuised about either given our many needs. If you gotta go with a defensive back, I’d go with Fitzpatrick because of his versatility. Just hope we get a very good player. Now if only our Bucs had swallowed their pride and tanked that last regular season game, Think about where we could be?..Ridin in High Cotton!! Just like the Spurs did when they tanked for Tim Duncan. Look what that got them..20 yrs of Winning!!

    1. 6.1

      Pete Wood

      Never a good reason to tank for a better draft pick. If a team doesn’t have enough self respect to try and win, they shouldn’t be in the league.
      Spurs didn’t tank. Robinson was injured most of the season.
      If four QBs are picked in top six, we won’t need to trade down, we’ll have one of the big three left on the board.

  7. 7

    FLBoy84

    Being that the Jets overpaid by 840pts (= to a #20 1st rnd pick) to move up from #6 to #3, don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect the Bucs to receive quite a bit more than just a mere 40pts in an overpay from Buffalo or 11pts from Arizona. If you’re trading up to secure a QB, it shouldn’t be an equal swap. Have stated before that deal making doesn’t appear to be Licht’s strong suit, guess we may find out in a few weeks..

  8. 8

    JC5100

    Hughes being thrown out of UNC is a big deal for me. We’ve gone through enough years when we drafted these kind of guys. And yes Spence has stayed out of trouble, but he hasn’t been good either.

    There is a big difference between Ward and these other CBs because he sticks on WRs like glue. The others allow too much separation.

  9. 9

    Buc 1976

    #5 would look really good now.

  10. 10

    jerseybucsfan

    Congrats Scott. One of the better Fab 5s.

  11. 11

    geno711

    Scott – I loved this article. I like when you guys step out and just don’t follow the national media’s picks on who the Buc’s will be selecting. Last year, you were correct in stating that you felt like the Buc’s liked Justin Evans over a lot of other guys at safety. Great job there! I will be reading for your insights the rest of this draft season.

    Just a thought on Vernon Hargreaves. I agree that there is not much to get excited about. However, for a comparison, let’s look at LaMarcus Joyner’s career. A 2nd round draft choice (probably because of 5’8” height) for the Rams. He initially played slot corner and only had 8 PD and 0 INT’s his 1st two years and 26 games. He kept improving because he has been a student of the game and now is on verge of being an All-Pro. Last year he was used as a free safety, strong safety and nickel corner. I think it is too early to give up on Hargreaves.

    As a Buc fan, I would be more ready to give up on Noah Spence. From Profootball Doc: “Spence has not been so lucky. He underwent a shoulder labral repair for a chronic dislocation last offseason But in Week 3, it happened again, derailing his expected breakout season with another surgery. Revision surgery is always harder than the first time. I would expect him to continue to use a shoulder harness this season to avoid a third go-round.”

  12. 12

    Horse

    Scott, solid Fab 5! Here’s my thoughts. As much as I would like a trade down in the 1st Round I don’t see it happening unless one of the 3 QB’s is there at Spot 7. I think we have a better chance moving down in the 2nd Rd . I don’t see us taking a RB at Spot 7, but Barkley is hard to ignore if Chubb and James are gone and we can’t move down. Sure would like to pick up an extra pick in 2019; maybe trade a 2018 Round 7 pick for 2019 Rd 6 pick. My guard is up with Koetter & Smith; I hope this isn’t another Lovie Smith mentality and we waste another year.

  13. 13

    Cody

    Disappointing to not hear anything about Sony Michel or Lorenzo Carter. I assume the Bucs will go after Nyheim Hines in the third or fourth and use him as a change of pace back alongside Peyton Barber and Quizz. I don’t think running back is nearly as big of a need as a lot of people make it out to be. Obviously it could be better. But I feel pretty great about Peyton Barber.

    1. 13.1

      FLBoy84

      Who do you feel good about if/when Peyton Barber gets injured? 😉

      1. 13.1.1

        Cody

        Lol. I’m just saying that we don’t have to spend a top pick on a running back. I still think I’d rather see us pick up a corner and another defensive end in the first two rounds.

  14. 14

    Brandonges

    Why is this team so keen to extend Donovan Smith? The dude is a turnstile.

  15. 15

    seat26

    It’s always exciting to get one of the most coveted players in the draft. But when you need as many holes filled as the Bucs do and you only have 7 picks in the draft, and most of them are south of #4, trading down and stocking picks is logical. But it takes patience and strategy. And things have to fall right for you. If QB’s have a run in the first 6 picks, lots of really good players will be available for the Bucs to grab and it will be tempting. But if QB’s don’t dominate the first 6 picks, a lot of the players that the Bucs are in love with will be gone, and Tampa will need to have a plan B. Trading down would be smart. Get an extra 1st, or maybe even a couple 2nds and a 3rd. Tampa has more positions to fill than it has picks for now. And if we do not improve the OL or the secondary or running back early, we could be looking at a long ugly Season.

  16. 16

    surferdudes

    The trade chart is a guide, not the law. It’s a reference point on what value should be, but not set on. I know we’re trying to resign our own, but I don’t see the need to get D. Smith done this year. I’d rather see them use some money for a vet corner who’s still available, or one who may get cut, and become available. I’d like to see us come out of this draft with two corners, and still bring in a vet C.B..

  17. 17

    cgmaster27

    Very good fab 5 Scott, one of your better ones. Very informative stuff on the bucs not being keen on guys like Davenport or Guice. I’m really starting to think if the big three are gone, and they don’t trade back, which at that point I think they would since the QB’s would still be there. They draft Derwin or Vita. I am really hoping for a trade down with the BIlls. And as other stated above, that chart gets thrown out when you are talking about QB’s. Id make them pay both of their firsts and a second to get up to 7 minimum.Then we could really do some damage in the draft. Maybe still get either James or Vita at 12, a DB or RB at the second first round pick, and then best available of what you didn’t grab in the first. This will be very in interesting for sure.
    I’m not to worried about the Cap stuff as Greenburgh has done a fantastic job of keeping this team together. And don’t underestimate Jameis taking a little discount to win. He’s going to get paid, for sure, but how knows.
    I think Hargreaves will have a bounce back year this year as long as they keep him in the slot. I think that’s his natural position in this defense and he was playing well until injuring himself last year. We kind of have to keep him with those cap numbers. Unless of course he gets a dirty test, which would probably null and void a good bit of that stuff.
    In all it was pretty imperative that we got those DE’s we did in free agency as we all knew this wasn’t a good class for DE’s, but after reading this , yuk.

  18. 18

    XpfcWintergreen2

    FAB 1: SR’s Top 5 Picks at No. 7

    I am with you wholeheartedly in your remarks. I have arrived at quite similar conclusions for some of the same reasons. (I am tickled pink as they say, to have arrived independently at these conclusions.)

    These rankings could be argued effectively based on BPA weighted against short-term needs and long-term needs. Others may well have the same 5 players placed in a differing order.
    ___________
    If we should somehow find ourselves with Buffalo’s 12th and 22nd picks I would be ecstatic if we came away with the likes of DT Da’Ron Payne and say CB Carlton Davis or CB Josh Jackson or RB Ronald Jones II or RB Kerryon Johnson.
    ________
    Go Bucs!!!

  19. 19

    Dman

    I’m an outlier, but I’d stay at 7, and trade D. JACKSON for a second or a third.

    1. 19.1

      Pete Wood

      I would trade Jackson for a second round pick in a heartbeat!

  20. 20

    GoldsonAges

    I am open to a trade down if we can still get either Vea or James. That would be ideal unless Chubb is there. If you take away the RB and OG my top players align perfectly with SR. Chubb, Vea and James.

    Mike Hughes and Jaire Alexander are my top 2 cb. If we can get in round 2 we must. We have drafted offense WAY too much since Licht got here we NEED to go defense this year BIG TIME

  21. 21

    fanofdabucs

    So the only reason Mayfield is being considered as a top ten pick, is because he’s cocky?! Otherwise he’d be a second rounder? Come on now. You do realize just how ridiculous that sounds?

    He struggled in the 2nd half against Georgia because Georgia’s defense started getting pressure almost every play.

    I’ll take the other angle. If Baker was 2 inches taller, he’d be the sure fire top pick. He’s the best QB in this draft despite his size.

    Vea is going to be a decently player, but this team needs a real difference maker at 7 or hopefully trade down. The reason you knock other players for their lack of production can be used against Vea as well. Payne will end up being the best DT in this draft.

  22. 22

    e

    There’s a lame 5-round draft over at NFL.com with the Bucs making only two picks in the entire draft… Oh, the disrespect.

    1. 22.1

      FLBoy84

      Licht trades for JPP and suddenly he’s Mike Ditka??

    2. 22.2

      Pete Wood

      I have seen a lot of mocks, but this takes the prize for the most idiotic. Trading up into the first and giving up picks to get a rb Bucs could have snagged in the second anyway?
      Please.

    3. 22.3

      macabee

      e,

      I saw that mock and it is a 5 round Chad Reuter mock that has the Bucs taking Derwin James at #7, then trading back into the 1st round by taking their 2nd pick #38 and their 4th round pick #102 acquired from the Giants and trading back into the 1st round with the Patriots for pick #31 where they then select RB Derrius Guice/LSU.

      As you recall the Bucs traded away their 3rd pick and under Reuter’s scenario, do not pick again until the 5th round where they select DT PJ Hall. The Bucs would still have 2 6 round picks and the next to the last pick (comp pick) in the 7th round remaining.

      As someone suggested in a later post, I doubt that the Bucs would do this with just a few premium picks remaining and good alternatives left for a RB. I also question whether they pick at #7 instead of trading back for more picks if the Big 3 are off the board. Anyway, no more guessing after the 26th – can’t wait. Til then we hope for the best. Go Bucs!

      http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000925097/article/fiveround-mock-draft-saints-trade-up-for-baker-mayfield

      1. 22.3.1

        Pete Wood

        I think Pewter should give you a job, Macabee. I love your analysis. It is always spot on.
        And, you definitely have the best avatar.

  23. 23

    owlykat

    Outstanding detailed article once again Scott.
    If four QBs go ahead of us we should have one of the big 3 to take and at this point we should take any one of them, even if it is a Guard. Second round I would trade down and get a third pick. Take Best RB with the second , hopefully Penny, pick and Best CB with the third round pick or move Tandy to CB and pick Best Strong Safety. In the fourth Miami’s DE who has the ability and size for our DL Coach to develop into an outstanding DE. In the Fifth best DT left. In the first Sixth get Pinero the best rookie Place Kicker to compete with our 86 per cent Pro. Constanzio, the Second Sixth and Seventh take the fastest Special Team players.

  24. 24

    plopes808

    Another great read, thanks Scott. I’m liking the trade down scenario more and more as time goes by. Licht needs to not be nice though, and take both firsts from Buffalo at least. Franchise QB is the big prize every team wants and if they want it, they’ll pay big.

    As for the cap, it shouldn’t be much of an issue as we will have some good sized contracts coming off the books next year. Even if DJax has a big year this year, at his age, and with Godwin on the roster, it’s hard to justify keeping him on for 2019. Godwin is already the heir apparent, and Hump will come at a much lower price. Also, of all our FA Dline pickups this year, I doubt they’ll all be hits. At least one of JPP, Curry, Allen, or Unrein will be let go next year. Maybe we’ll be lucky and hit on all of them, but that’s highly unlikely.

    VH3 is nowhere near done, he’s a much better player than his stats would suggest. It’s all about Mike Smith playing him the way he plays well. Ditch this off coverage and get more physical on the outside. Our improved Dline will help the back end and allow our secondary to play more aggressively.

    As for who we should pick in the draft, like everyone else has said, it all depends on how the draft plays out in front of us. Much like he did last year, Licht will sit back and let the draft come to him. We need to hit on CB and RB at a minimum regardless of where they’re picked though. Additional help in the trenches will do well for us in the future as well. It seems Licht has got that message judging by his signings in FA this year. I expect him to stay with that mindset moving forward.

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