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About the Author: Scott Reynolds

Avatar Of Scott Reynolds
Scott Reynolds is in his 28th year of covering the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the vice president, publisher and senior Bucs beat writer for PewterReport.com. Author of the popular SR's Fab 5 column on Fridays, Reynolds oversees web development and forges marketing partnerships for PewterReport.com in addition to his editorial duties. A graduate of Kansas State University in 1995, Reynolds spent six years giving back to the community as the defensive coordinator/defensive line coach for his sons' Pop Warner team, the South Pasco Predators. Reynolds can be reached at: [email protected]

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FAB 3. Trade Down Partners For Tampa Bay

The 2018 NFL Draft is still weeks away but there has already been a couple of notable trades in the first round. Buffalo had the 21st and 22nd overall picks and moved up to No. 12 in a trade with Cincinnati, which now picks at No. 21. The New York Jets moved from No. 6 to No. 3 in a trade with Indianapolis because the Jets need a quarterback and the Colts don’t.

A lot of Bucs fans would like to see Tampa Bay trade down and acquire another pick or two, especially after general manager Jason Licht traded his third-round pick to the New York Giants for defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul. I wouldn’t mind seeing that too, especially since the No. 7 pick could become quite valuable and could fetch a king’s ransom for the Bucs.

Here’s the thinking. Cleveland is going to draft a quarterback with the first overall pick – likely USC’s Sam Darnold. The New York Giants are either going to take a quarterback – possibly UCLA’s Josh Rosen – or Penn State running back Saquon Barkley or Notre Dame guard Quenton Nelson.

Notre Dame Lg Quenton Nelson - Photo Courtesy Of Notre Dame

Notre Dame LG Quenton Nelson – Photo courtesy of Notre Dame

The Jets will be taking a quarterback at No. 3, either Rosen or Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield or Wyoming’s Josh Allen I presume. Cleveland picks again at No. 4 and would either take Barkley or a defensive back like Alabama safety Minkah Fitzpatrick or a wild card selection like Notre Dame left tackle Mike McGlinchey to replace Joe Thomas, but it won’t be a quarterback.

Denver is up with the fifth overall pick, and could draft either the third or fourth quarterback, or select Notre Dame guard Quenton Nelson. If Nelson is the pick that means there could be only two or three quarterbacks off the board.

Indianapolis will take a player that the Bucs would like to draft – Nelson, Barkley or North Carolina State defensive end Bradley Chubb – at No. 6, and there is a chance that by the time Tampa Bay is on the clock that all three of those players are gone. That would mean that the Bucs could be primed to trade down with a team that might want to select the third or fourth quarterback in the draft.

The two most likely teams wanting to trade up for a QB are Buffalo, which picks No. 12, and Arizona, which has the 15th overall selection. On the standard NFL Draft trade chart, the No. 7 pick is valued at 1,500 points. The 12th pick has a 1,200-point value, and the 15th pick is worth 1,050 points.

Let’s first examine what a trade with Buffalo could look like. The Bills are flush with draft picks due to offseason trades, including shipping quarterback Tyrod Taylor to Cleveland. Buffalo has two first-round picks (12 and 22 overall), two second-rounders (53 and 56 overall), two fourth-round selections (96 and 121), a fifth-rounder (158 overall) and a sixth-rounder (166 overall). That’s plenty of ammo to go up and get a quarterback.

They might have an itchy trigger finger and not want to wait until No. 7 and strike a deal with Cleveland for the fourth overall pick, which would allow the Browns to move back and take McGlinchey (or another player) at No. 12, which would be a better value. But moving up will be costly as the fourth spot is worth 1,800 points – 300 more points than Tampa Bay’s seventh overall pick is worth.

Bucs Qb Jameis Winston – Photo By: Getty Images

Bucs QB Jameis Winston – Photo by: Getty Images

So let’s suppose the Bills and Bucs strike a deal. Buffalo would ship its higher first-round pick at No. 12 (1,200 points), and its lower second-round pick, which is No. 56 overall (340 points). The total would be 1,540 points, which is 40 points higher than equal trade value for the seventh overall pick. If I’m Licht, I’m saying that the Bucs will “keep the change” from the transaction and that’s the premium for making this trade.

If Licht wants to be nice to general manager Brandon Beane then Tampa Bay could ship its fifth-round pick, which is No. 144 overall and worth 34 points, to Buffalo to make up some of the difference. With the Bucs being in a position of strength, I don’t think that’s necessary, and this trade scenario would get Tampa Bay back up to eight draft picks.

Buffalo would still be in good shape because it would still have six draft picks, the No. 7 selection, plus its other first-rounder at No. 22, in addition to a second-round pick (53), a fourth-round pick (121), a fifth-round pick (166) and a sixth-round pick (187).

That would give Tampa Bay the No. 12 overall pick and two picks in the second round at No. 38 and No. 56 overall. This trade would do more than give Licht back the third-rounder he traded to the Giants for JPP. If Licht wanted to keep going and acquire more picks he could trade down with one of the second-round picks and come away with an extra pick, which could be a third- or fourth-rounder. Tampa Bay would then have nine draft picks if he makes that move.

Now let’s examine a possible trade scenario with Arizona. The Cardinals need a young, talented quarterback because their current roster with Sam Bradford and Mike Glennon leading the way is downright frightening. The problem with Arizona is that it only has seven draft picks, including two third-round picks. Trading from No. 15 (1,050) up to No. 7 would cost the Cardinals its second-round pick (430 points) and a fifth-rounder (31 points) to get to 1,500.

That would actually put the Cardinals at 1,511, so if Licht wanted to be kind and make up some of the difference with the overage he could flip Tampa Bay’s seventh-round pick to his good friend Steve Keim, who is Arizona’s general manager. That would leave Arizona with a first-round pick, two third-round picks, a fourth-round pick and two seventh-round picks for Keim new head coach Steve Wilks.

Patriots Head Coach Bill Belichick – Photo By: Getty Images

Patriots head coach Bill Belichick – Photo by: Getty Images

A wild card scenario would be New England trading up to No. 7 to get a quarterback to serve as the heir apparent to Tom Brady. Bill Belichick used a second-round pick on quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo five years ago, and then used a third-round pick on Jacoby Brissett two years ago, so it wouldn’t be out of character for the Patriots to use a premium pick on quarterback.

The Patriots acquired an additional first-round pick, No. 23 overall from Los Angeles, when they traded wide receiver Brandin Cooks to the Rams. New England has eight draft picks, including two in the first round (23 and 31 overall), two in the second round (43 and 63 overall), a third-round selection (95 overall), two sixth-rounders (198 and 210 overall) and a seventh-rounder (219).

A fair trade per the NFL Draft trade chart would send both of the Patriots’ first-round picks to the Bucs, in addition to its third-round pick and it’s first sixth-rounder. Belichick has fleeced the Bucs for years in trades, so it would be nice to see them turn the tables and get a windfall for the seventh overall pick. Tampa Bay would have 10 draft picks in this scenario – two first-rounders, a second-round pick, a third-rounder, a fourth-rounder, a fifth-round selection, three sixth-round picks and a seventh-rounder.

I don’t think that is the most likely scenario, though. I think the Patriots may try to trade for New York Giants wide receiver Odell Beckham, Jr. with those two first-round picks instead.

Of all three scenarios I proposed, I think Buffalo trading up with Tampa Bay makes the most sense because the Bills are the most QB-needy team outside of the top 5 and they have plenty of ammunition to trade up. The Buccaneers are prepping for these scenarios by doing their due diligence by investigating some players that could be available in the middle or late part of the first round – not just potential picks at No. 7.

Louisville Cb Jaire Alexander - Photo By: Getty Images

Louisville CB Jaire Alexander – Photo by: Getty Images

Tampa Bay has brought in Florida defensive tackle Taven Bryan and Louisville cornerback Jaire Alexander for private visits and both are expected to be late first- or early second-round picks. A visit with UCF cornerback Mike Hughes, who is also considered to be a late first- or early second-round pick, is also scheduled. The team has also privately worked LSU running back Derrius Guice, who is expected to be drafted in the same range.

Any trade with Buffalo, Arizona, New England or a surprise team likely won’t happen until Tampa Bay is on the clock with the No. 7 pick. Last year, Licht stayed at No. 19 and let the draft come to him and benefited when tight end O.J. Howard, who was thought to be a top 10 talent, fell to the Bucs. It doesn’t make any sense for Tampa Bay to trade out of the seventh spot in the first round without seeing which player or players may fall to the Bucs first.

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