FAB 3. Bucs’ Top Tier Target Could Fall To No. 7

I wasn’t sure about this back in January, but I’m convinced now more than ever that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in the catbird seat. The reason is that a lot of the top quarterbacks either stepped up at Senior Bowl or the NFL Scouting Combine and there are four guys in hot demand – USC’s Sam Darnold, UCLA’s Josh Rosen, Wyoming’s Josh Allen and Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield.

I’d personally throw Louisville’s Lamar Jackson in that mix too, but I’m not convinced that NFL teams view him as a top 10 pick. That could be a mistake when it’s all said and done.

But I firmly believe that at least three quarterbacks will be selected ahead of Tampa Bay, which will push a talented, non-quarterback down to the Bucs. I have no idea which quarterback is going to go first, second or third in the pecking order because there is no clear-cut consensus top guy.

Darnold, Rosen, Allen and Mayfield all have their strengths and their weaknesses, but if you’re the Buccaneers it doesn’t really matter who goes first, second and third. As long as at least three quarterbacks are chosen with the first six picks.

Notre Dame left guard Quenton Nelson – Photo by: Getty Images

As an educated guess, I believe that the Buccaneers’ top tier players in the 2018 NFL Draft consist of North Carolina State defensive end Bradley Chubb, Notre Dame guard Quenton Nelson and Penn State running back Saquon Barkley. That’s no surprise as I’m sure a lot of teams that don’t need quarterbacks would have a similar list. It works out perfectly that Tampa Bay has pressing needs at defensive end, guard and running back, so any of those three wouldn’t be considered a reach at all.

There is a good chance that Chubb, Nelson and Barkley are off the board by the time the seventh overall pick comes around, but it’s no longer impossible to think that one of them won’t be there. Hey, tight end O.J. Howard fell to the Bucs at No. 17 last year.

Just in case, let’s look at some other players Tampa Bay may be interested in at No. 7. The second tier of first-rounders consists of Washington defensive tackle Vita Vea, Florida State safety Derwin James and Ohio State cornerback Denzel Ward. That’s six players, and I would bet the Buccaneers come away with one of them on draft day because at least one quarterback will be chosen ahead of the seventh overall pick that Tampa Bay has.

So let’s see how some scenarios could play out, and how the Bucs just may end up with one of the top tier guys.

Scenario 1
1. Cleveland – QB
2. NY Giants – Nelson
3. Indianapolis – Chubb
4. Cleveland – Barkley
5. Denver – QB
6. NY Jets – QB
7. Tampa Bay – Vea / James / Ward
Analysis: The three most quarterback-needy teams, Cleveland, Denver and the New York Jets all grab a QB, and the New York Giants’ new general manager, David Gettleman, missed on Andrew Norwell in free agency, so he grabs Nelson to block for Eli Manning. Indianapolis needs pass rushers for its 4-3 defense, so Chubb is an ideal fit. The Browns swing back around and complete Hue Jackson’s offense with Barkley, who will team with Carlos Hyde in the backfield. With Nelson, Chubb and Barkley off the board, the Bucs choose between Vea, James and Ward at No. 7 to fill needs along the defensive line, at safety and at cornerback.

Scenario 2
1. Cleveland – QB
2. NY Giants – Nelson
3. Buffalo (trade with Indianapolis) – QB
4. Cleveland – Barkley
5. Denver – QB
6. NY Jets – QB
7. Tampa Bay – Chubb
Analysis: The first two picks are the same as Scenario 1, but now Buffalo, who needs a quarterback and has been aggressively moving up in the first round, trades up to No. 3 with Indy to get the second quarterback off the board. The Browns swoop in and grab Barkley at No. 4, followed by quarterbacks to the Broncos and the Jets, and voila – Chubb is a Buccaneer.

Scenario 3
1. Cleveland – QB
2. NY Giants – Nelson
3. Buffalo (trade with Indianapolis) – QB
4. Cleveland – Chubb
5. Denver – QB
6. NY Jets – QB
7. Tampa Bay – Barkley
Analysis: The first three picks remain the same as the previous scenario, but instead of selecting Barkley at No. 4, the Browns wait until the top of the second round to select a running back and draft Chubb to play opposite Myles Garrett, last year’s first overall pick. Two quarterbacks go next and then Barkley falls into Tampa Bay’s lap and the Bucs get the best runner-receiver back in the draft.

Scenario 4
1. Cleveland – QB
2. NY Giants – Barkley
3. Buffalo (trade with Indianapolis) – QB
4. Cleveland – Chubb
5. Denver – QB
6. NY Jets – QB
7. Tampa Bay – Nelson
Analysis: This scenario plays out the same as the last one, except for the fact that the Giants, who need a running game to help Manning and provide balance to the offense, take Barkley second overall. That means that Nelson could slide to Tampa Bay at No. 7.

Scenario 5
1. Cleveland – QB
2. NY Giants – QB
3. Buffalo (trade with Indianapolis) – QB
4. Cleveland – Barkley
5. Denver – Nelson
6. NY Jets – QB
7. Tampa Bay – Chubb
Analysis: In this scenario, the Giants take a quarterback at No. 2 to serve as the heir apparent to Manning, the Bills trade up to take the third QB off the board, who Denver wanted, which forces the Broncos to take Nelson to protect Case Keenum or Patrick Lynch. The QB-desperate Jets still take a signal caller, and in this scenario, Chubb slides to the Bucs.

NC State DE Bradley Chubb – Photo courtesy of NC State Univ.

Aside from Buffalo, Arizona is another quarterback-needy team that may move up into the top 5 to ensure they get a young passer to develop behind Sam Bradford and Mike Glennon. The fact that another team or two would be willing to trade up to get their targeted quarterback, in addition to the teams already in the top 6 that need a young signal caller, only increases the chances that one of the top tier guys falls to Tampa Bay.

While the idea of the Bucs trading down with Buffalo at No. 12 or Arizona at No. 15 may seem tempting as it would bring about another draft pick or two, Tampa Bay is assured of getting a second-tier target at No. 7 and may even luck into having a top-tier target fall into its lap. That could make it too tempting for the Bucs to stay at No. 7 rather than trade down.