FAB 3. Bucs’ Top Tier Target Could Fall To No. 7

I wasn’t sure about this back in January, but I’m convinced now more than ever that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in the catbird seat. The reason is that a lot of the top quarterbacks either stepped up at Senior Bowl or the NFL Scouting Combine and there are four guys in hot demand – USC’s Sam Darnold, UCLA’s Josh Rosen, Wyoming’s Josh Allen and Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield.

I’d personally throw Louisville’s Lamar Jackson in that mix too, but I’m not convinced that NFL teams view him as a top 10 pick. That could be a mistake when it’s all said and done.

But I firmly believe that at least three quarterbacks will be selected ahead of Tampa Bay, which will push a talented, non-quarterback down to the Bucs. I have no idea which quarterback is going to go first, second or third in the pecking order because there is no clear-cut consensus top guy.

Darnold, Rosen, Allen and Mayfield all have their strengths and their weaknesses, but if you’re the Buccaneers it doesn’t really matter who goes first, second and third. As long as at least three quarterbacks are chosen with the first six picks.

Notre Dame left guard Quenton Nelson - Photo by: Getty Images
Notre Dame left guard Quenton Nelson – Photo by: Getty Images

As an educated guess, I believe that the Buccaneers’ top tier players in the 2018 NFL Draft consist of North Carolina State defensive end Bradley Chubb, Notre Dame guard Quenton Nelson and Penn State running back Saquon Barkley. That’s no surprise as I’m sure a lot of teams that don’t need quarterbacks would have a similar list. It works out perfectly that Tampa Bay has pressing needs at defensive end, guard and running back, so any of those three wouldn’t be considered a reach at all.

There is a good chance that Chubb, Nelson and Barkley are off the board by the time the seventh overall pick comes around, but it’s no longer impossible to think that one of them won’t be there. Hey, tight end O.J. Howard fell to the Bucs at No. 17 last year.

Just in case, let’s look at some other players Tampa Bay may be interested in at No. 7. The second tier of first-rounders consists of Washington defensive tackle Vita Vea, Florida State safety Derwin James and Ohio State cornerback Denzel Ward. That’s six players, and I would bet the Buccaneers come away with one of them on draft day because at least one quarterback will be chosen ahead of the seventh overall pick that Tampa Bay has.

So let’s see how some scenarios could play out, and how the Bucs just may end up with one of the top tier guys.

Scenario 1
1. Cleveland – QB
2. NY Giants – Nelson
3. Indianapolis – Chubb
4. Cleveland – Barkley
5. Denver – QB
6. NY Jets – QB
7. Tampa Bay – Vea / James / Ward
Analysis: The three most quarterback-needy teams, Cleveland, Denver and the New York Jets all grab a QB, and the New York Giants’ new general manager, David Gettleman, missed on Andrew Norwell in free agency, so he grabs Nelson to block for Eli Manning. Indianapolis needs pass rushers for its 4-3 defense, so Chubb is an ideal fit. The Browns swing back around and complete Hue Jackson’s offense with Barkley, who will team with Carlos Hyde in the backfield. With Nelson, Chubb and Barkley off the board, the Bucs choose between Vea, James and Ward at No. 7 to fill needs along the defensive line, at safety and at cornerback.

Scenario 2
1. Cleveland – QB
2. NY Giants – Nelson
3. Buffalo (trade with Indianapolis) – QB
4. Cleveland – Barkley
5. Denver – QB
6. NY Jets – QB
7. Tampa Bay – Chubb
Analysis: The first two picks are the same as Scenario 1, but now Buffalo, who needs a quarterback and has been aggressively moving up in the first round, trades up to No. 3 with Indy to get the second quarterback off the board. The Browns swoop in and grab Barkley at No. 4, followed by quarterbacks to the Broncos and the Jets, and voila – Chubb is a Buccaneer.

Scenario 3
1. Cleveland – QB
2. NY Giants – Nelson
3. Buffalo (trade with Indianapolis) – QB
4. Cleveland – Chubb
5. Denver – QB
6. NY Jets – QB
7. Tampa Bay – Barkley
Analysis: The first three picks remain the same as the previous scenario, but instead of selecting Barkley at No. 4, the Browns wait until the top of the second round to select a running back and draft Chubb to play opposite Myles Garrett, last year’s first overall pick. Two quarterbacks go next and then Barkley falls into Tampa Bay’s lap and the Bucs get the best runner-receiver back in the draft.

Scenario 4
1. Cleveland – QB
2. NY Giants – Barkley
3. Buffalo (trade with Indianapolis) – QB
4. Cleveland – Chubb
5. Denver – QB
6. NY Jets – QB
7. Tampa Bay – Nelson
Analysis: This scenario plays out the same as the last one, except for the fact that the Giants, who need a running game to help Manning and provide balance to the offense, take Barkley second overall. That means that Nelson could slide to Tampa Bay at No. 7.

Scenario 5
1. Cleveland – QB
2. NY Giants – QB
3. Buffalo (trade with Indianapolis) – QB
4. Cleveland – Barkley
5. Denver – Nelson
6. NY Jets – QB
7. Tampa Bay – Chubb
Analysis: In this scenario, the Giants take a quarterback at No. 2 to serve as the heir apparent to Manning, the Bills trade up to take the third QB off the board, who Denver wanted, which forces the Broncos to take Nelson to protect Case Keenum or Patrick Lynch. The QB-desperate Jets still take a signal caller, and in this scenario, Chubb slides to the Bucs.

NC State DE Bradley Chubb - Photo courtesy of NC State Univ.
NC State DE Bradley Chubb – Photo courtesy of NC State Univ.

Aside from Buffalo, Arizona is another quarterback-needy team that may move up into the top 5 to ensure they get a young passer to develop behind Sam Bradford and Mike Glennon. The fact that another team or two would be willing to trade up to get their targeted quarterback, in addition to the teams already in the top 6 that need a young signal caller, only increases the chances that one of the top tier guys falls to Tampa Bay.

While the idea of the Bucs trading down with Buffalo at No. 12 or Arizona at No. 15 may seem tempting as it would bring about another draft pick or two, Tampa Bay is assured of getting a second-tier target at No. 7 and may even luck into having a top-tier target fall into its lap. That could make it too tempting for the Bucs to stay at No. 7 rather than trade down.

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Scott Reynolds is in his 24th year of covering the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the vice president, publisher and senior Bucs beat writer for PewterReport.com. Author of the popular SR's Fab 5 column on Fridays, Reynolds oversees web development and forges marketing partnerships for PewterReport.com in addition to his editorial duties. A graduate of Kansas State University in 1995, Reynolds spent six years giving back to the community as the defensive line coach for his son's Pop Warner team, the South Pasco Predators. Reynolds can be reached at: [email protected]

36 COMMENTS

  1. I would love to have Okoronkwo. The dude is a stud, with a high motor. He is what this team needs, if we came away with Him,Chubb,and Penny in the first 3 rounds. That would be ridiculous, or even Fitzpatrick or James in the first. Our defense would be pretty exciting. Then we could take Marquis Haynes or Eastman later in the draft

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  2. Mentioned to Mark last night that I really like both DT signings. Remind me a bit of the ol’ Hovan and Culpepper days. Not 1st Rnd talent but pure dogged, mean lunch-pail guys that would do whatever it took to get the job done and win, AND left their ego’s at the door and were great for the locker room. Basically the opposite of a Chris Baker.

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    • Would think the Bucs might look for more of a 3T DT in the draft that could back up McCoy, Like Bryan and Hurst, though hard to see the Bucs in a position to draft them unless we trade down. Guys like Phillips, Shepherd, McIntosh, Brown, Senat, etc. may fit the bill in later rounds. And would prefer Jensen over Pouncey, if we can get him. Understand Pouncey is a name, but he has two chronic hips, lead the league in penalties at C last year and graded out as the 34th of 38 C’s (though, like you Mark, have no idea how those grades are calculated). Still see the Bucs grabbing a G/C prospect to fill out the line. If the Bucs get Jensen, a rookie 4-yr deal for a starter would help balance the $$ after investing in high dollars in Jensen and the new contracts for Marpet and Smith as well. And who knows, the team may feel Benenoch is ready to step up. Guess we’ll find out soon enough.

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      • A starting OL of Smith, Nelson, Jensen, Marpet and Dotson would be scary. Doubtful it’ll happen, but fun to imagine nonetheless.

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  3. A team that had only 23 sacks cant afford to cut a player that had 5. No reason not to resign McDonald. Great locker room presence, good leader and good example to younger players, and still producing.

    I imagine the plan would be to draft a pass rushing DT in the draft, but thats no guarantee. Resign McDonald.

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    • “Great locker room presence, good leader and good example to younger players, and still producing.” Completely agree on the first three, but production is calculated involving much more than sacks. It’s an exciting stat and all, but just a small part of what a DT is graded on. Like you, I appreciate McDonald’s presence as a leader and example, but think you’ll find Unrein offers a lot of those intangibles as well while having a greater impact on the overall performance of the DL.

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      • I agree. I think McDonald would be a good pass rushing option for obvious passing downs and can provide more there than Unrein or Beau.

        That being said, unlike some, I am a fan of both additions as well as our current strategy in FA. If we seal the deal with Jensen and can land Gaines to help at CB, I would very satisfied.

        Lots of teams are overpaying for mediocre talent and I think Licht is looking for good value, scheme, and locker room fits and I am okay with that

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        • Being that Allen will be 27, McCoy 30 and Unrein 31 this year, can really see the team adding a younger DT to develop and add a bit of speed to that group. With those personalities, that’s a heck of group to learn under if you’re coming in as a rookie.

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      • wouldnt mind an RB either, however if we go Defense in rd 1 and RB in round 2, I think we will be safe there with Barber still in the mix

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        • Agree, though you still need much more than Barber and a 2nd rnd RB. Typically go into camp with 4-5, so still plenty of need there.

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  4. Hey, Scott!
    Two quick FA questions.
    1. Did the Bucs even try to get Crowell since he ended up signing for peanuts with the Jets?
    2. Are Bucs looking at any other RBS in FA? Like Thomas Rawls?
    Thanks!

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  5. Run stuffers are Great. But offenses usually attack your weaknesses. And we all know opposing QB’s ordered sandwiches on our Defensive line last year. It was quite embarassing. Thus far, I am not impressed with our Bucs. If Licht is listening to Mike Smith sayin, we are close then…I am afraid we are done. Relying on last yrs ineffective rush coupled with your dependability on rookies to get the Defensive job done, does not fair well for us. Our Divisional foes must be..Chompin at the bit..to see our old defense returning. I’ve said from the initial hiring Koetter and Smitty were wrong for this team. Arthur Banks sent them packing and we picked them up. Other teams plug in Nobody players- and keep on winning. Its the coaching guys!

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    • Let’s hope we can get Okafor. Spence to get healthy. And Chubb to drop to #7 or trade up to get get him! GO BUCS!!

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  6. Well ANYONE is a upgrade to Baker. But I did like what he said.

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  7. A trade down getting DaRon Payne to split time with McCoy, and get an extra pick sounds tempting. However it would be great if either Chubb, Barkley, or Nelson were available at #7. After seeing what money Norwell got drafting a plug in guard is getting great value .

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  8. And if we were to sign Suh (not in favor, btw), we should be required to re-sign Evan Smith (not in favor either, btw) just to enjoy the training camp fights. For those not in the know, Suh curb-stomped Smith’s arm while he was on the ground back in 2011. Guessing they aren’t on each others Christmas card list.

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  9. So we have the LEAST amount of sacks in the league and the plan for the offseason is to add run stuffing DTs and not resign the 2nd leading sacker on the team? I can’t believe an entire article was written about the dumbest offseason plan in history. We have done nothing but subtract from the most glaring hole on the team and it’s being spun like this somehow helps, amazing. Who cares if Suh and GMC have different personalities, this is a business. Suh can help spell GMC on early downs and pair up with him on passing downs to collapse the pocket, period. They would serve the purpose of keeping each other fresh then wreaking havoc on passing downs. I repeat we are paying Robert Ayers 7M, Sweezy 7M and Will G. 7M, we would rather waste money than spend it on a player with proven production. I’ve never understood this motto and never will, you acquire a player with the hopes that he turns into Clint McDonald without retaining Clint but this somehow IMPROVES us? I’m perfectly content with them passing on RBs bc there are plenty in the draft that can help, I’m ok with them passing on Norwell bc there are a few gaurds(Nelson, Winn, Fernandez and C. Williams to name a few that I think will be available in the draft that can walk in as upgrades. However the DL needs 2 starting DEs yet we watched players go elsewhere. You can’t say in one breath that “man they value draft picks” when 2 summers ago he was hoodwinked into giving Detroit a 5th round draft pick for the opportunity to sign George Johnson and we see how that worked out. We had players that could’ve helped us and cash that is being spent on worthless players. Unreen and Beau seem like redundant players, Unreen is 31, I personally would rather see us spend that money on Clint who at least proved he can get to the QB but Jason is busy out thinking himself again so who knows what will happen next.

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    • Agree 100% with everything you just wrote. This team has glaringly ignored the worst positions on our team. Line and DB. They didn’t have to go nuts and spend big money to get their guy. And I”m also tired of hearing about 3-4 fronts. As long as Mike Smith is our Defensive Coordinator and Gerald Mccoy our 3 technique, we will never be playing a 3-4 outside of once every game maybe.

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      • CBmaster27 is putting out facts

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    • It’s crazy it’s like the front office/staff watched a different football team go 5-11. They have plans to move on from a player 2nd on the team in sacks last season but are undecided on JR Sweezy, Robert Ayers and WIll Gholston, these guys are jokes. But then again this is the same man that signed Michael Johnson, Anthony Collins, Josh McCown and somehow convinced fans that those were the missing pieces. I can only hope this is the last summer of the Jason Light show.

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  10. I like the Allen and Unrein signings. Not to be under-estimated for a huge impact!

    But to really WIN free agency, they gotta sign Jensen! DE Okafor and CB Claiborne would be good for depth too if all can be had for the right prices. Add in the kicker we just got, and I’ll be a very pleased Buc fan with our work in free agency 2018!

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  11. Thanks Scott…a few observations:

    FAB1: This is a problem…the only change over 2017 is Allen for McDonald/Baker?…I just don’t understand what Licht’s strategy is here – unless (See FAB3 comment below).

    LDE: Will Gholston, Noah Spence, Mitch Unrein
    DT Gerald McCoy
    NT Beau Allen, Stevie Tu’ikolovatu
    RDE: Robert Ayers, Will Clark

    FAB 2 and 4: I consider these are related…the reason a GM needs to understand the OKL rookie in far more depth, is because his evidence (BIG 12 college games) is not comparable to what he’ll be facing in our games – if you at best know “a little” about his game-ability then, you better know a lot about everything else. Whereas, for FAs, you have a lot of evidence about everything…some GMs will ignore what they shouldn’t (see Albert Haynesworth), but if you’re getting fooled (as you rightly described Suh, and everyone in Washington could have told you about Baker last year) then you’ve only fooled yourself. It is a rare veteran that is going to all of the sudden have the switch turn on and go from meh to stud….what you see is what you get, but believe what you are hearing about the Swaggies.

    FAB3: I really hope you are right….because those 3 guys are a separate category for us. We either get one of them, or we might as well trade down. And it is for that reason, that I equally really hope Licht is thinking hard about what he would need to give-up in a trade to move up 1 spot to ensure we get one of those 3 guys. I’m not saying he should move up now, or in any circumstance, but if only 1 of those 3 is left (say it’s been 3 QBs, Barkley and Nelson gone) and his intel tells him the Jets are going to take Chubb or trade the pick to another team interested in Chubb, Licht better move up the one spot and get him…the difference for us would be insurmountable.

    Go Bucs!

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  12. Okafor signed with Saints – 2 years 10mil.

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    • We have worried about negative selection all along. GM and HC have backed themselves into ‘one and done’ contracts and the Glazer Babbies change coaches, as James Caan famously said in the thief, the way other guys change shoes. We couldn’t offer $5 mil/year? With no state tax?
      It’s not them, it’s us. Sick, sick sick of this. Please sell the team to someone not living on their daddy’s coattails

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  13. Scott, Would Pewter Report for the next couple weeks, PLEASE, tell us how much Salary Cap space is left especially if Marpet, Smith, Alexander will sign new contracts in a few months and we need leftover for Winston’s contract in 2019? Either Gholston or Ayers have to go because we need 2 DE’s in some kind of combination either free agency or draft. What we have right now isn’t any improvement on Defense because 31 other teams were better than us in 2017 and are trying to improve to in 2018. Just don’t understand drafting 6’2″ DE’s; how has that been working lately? Don’t see 4 QB’s being drafted in the 7 spot arena; maybe 3 QB’s in the 10-12 spot arena, and maybe the 4th QB being drafted in the lower half of the 1st round. Just my thoughts and good Article Scott.

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    • As of now Horse, Overthecap and Spotrac ( https://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space ) have us at around $36.7M as of today. which includes all the recent deals except Clark’s.

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  14. I really liked Brad Cullpeper. He was the only player who could keep Warren. Sapps massive ego in check by calling him fat boy.
    His remark to John Lynchs brother in law who played for the Bears after being knocked out by Lynch during a game and as he was walked off the field was hilarious.
    “Hey buddy, he is sleeping with your sister too..”
    For those unaware, Lynch was married to the players sister.

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    • Gotta love the classic’s lol

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  15. I think the GM should be meeting with the coaches before he signs or drafts anybody. Then ask them, “If I get this guy, are you going to utilize his skill sets? I mean there’s no sense in me getting him if you are going to maximize his talent in your system.”

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  16. I think 4 QBs go in the top 6. There will be trades before the draft, and during. I know you guys have seen enough drafts to know anythings possible. I wouldnt be surprised one bit if chubbs there. I say no way to trading up tho. Licht loves to do it and its cost this team dearly over the years. Licht needs to be patient and let his scouting dept find the guys after chubb if he is gone. I do like Oko IF he is there in round 2.
    I’m also a big fan of Tremaine Edmunds, who i think could be the best pass rushing DE in this draft. He will continue to get bigger. Only problem is the bucs are in no position to take a guy and change HIS position.
    Lets get Jensen and Mathieu and Clayborn then not reach in the draft.

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  17. I don’t know but maybe I missed something…. Like most have stated before, why are Ayers, Gholston and Clarke still on the roster when Ayers can’t stay healthy (hasn’t since we’ve signed him), Gholston has NEVER had an impact (and we don’t need a run stopping DE when we’re dead last in pass rush) and Clarke hasn’t done ANYTHING for him to be re-signed. But we let Clinton go and he was a rotational player that had 5 sacks (2nd on the team)…. To go after 2 guys that’s not proven and nobody probably even heard of them before the great Tampa Bay Bucs signed them… I’m bout ready to give up on them cause they (front office) have clearly given up on us.

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    • You missed a lot. Clinton is an older player that has been getting hurt more often every year. The 2 guys we just got ARE proven. Where have you been. One is an 8 year player in the league with a lot of starting experience and the other is an up and coming younger player who has been splitting time with 2 near Pro Bowlers. Most younger guys would have lost most or all of their playing time, but he didn’t. He doesn’t have a lot of sacks because he rarely played on 3rd down. If you are giving up, please leave the site and leave it for those of us who still support the team!

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  18. McDonald was second on the team with sacks for a team desperate for sacks. McDonald can play three tech or nose.

    I think he should be re-signed. Licht and Koetter need all hands on deck to turn around this ship!

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  19. You know that argument was used last year with the signings of Baker and drafting of Beckwith.

    “Stopping the run to force more third and long situations due to the added size at DT and LB”.

    The problem for the Bucs is that they can’t get off the field even in third and long situations. Also, the NFCS features offense that have big Ols but are also dynamic in that they can go spread and dynamic pass catching RB and slot/utility guys.

    Bucs need to become a faster team at DT and LB and not “bigger”.

    Even the current 3-4 teams are not “big”.

    Mike Smith needs to accept that the current NFL is about speed and rushing the passer.

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  20. RE: FAB 3.

    Scott, I was pleased with myself when I discovered how similar the results of my various scenarios for the first seven picks and yours were. .. ;-] .. There seems to be a lot of ways the Bucs can come out with a great result. We are indeed sitting in the catbird’s seat.

    My “dream scenario” looked like this.

    1. RB Saquon Barkley – Cleveland
    2. QB Sam Darnold – New York Giants
    3. QB Josh Rosen- Arizona (traded with Indianapolis)
    4. QB Josh Allen – Cleveland
    5. QB Baker Mayfield – Denver
    6. QB Lamar Jackson – New York Jets
    7. _______ – Tampa Bay (We would have the choice to pick from the following pool or to trade down if someone “sold the farm” to us in order to get our pick.)

    .. DE Bradley Chubb
    .. G Quenton Nelson
    .. CB/S Minka Fitzpatrick
    .. DT Vita Vea
    .. OT Connor Williams
    .. SS Derwin James

    Of course, there would be a hoard of irate fans who would storm One Buccaneer Palace if we passed on the chance to grab Chubb. The pick is a no-brainer. It has to be Chubb. .. :^) .. .. 😀

    And of course, there might be that team willing to “sell the farm” to the Jets in order to jump TB for Mr. Chubb. In that case, the Jets might well be willing to swap with us in any instance where Chubb and Nelson are still available at the sixth pick in order for us to prevent this. Since they already have two picks (37 and 49) in the second round, we might have to give up something significant this year plus give them a high pick for next year. They would still end up with Lamar Jackson for their pick at seven.

    The question is how much are the Bucs willing to give in order to secure Chubb.

    Job security for Licht, Koetter, et al. is obviously a factor in this equation. What we fans think probably doesn’t have that much weight for this decision.

    My conclusion is that we can’t really lose by standing pat. What happens with free agency and any possible trades between now and the draft isn’t likely to change the situation that much.

    The Bucs are in a win/win position in the first round and will have to work very hard to blow it.
    __________
    Go Bucs!!!!

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  21. I guess no one in Bucs land is paying attention to the rumor Uber driver has Video and FSU lawyer has taken case could be asking NFL for biggest settlement in NFL history to not press charges. If that is true it explains why no one interviewing witnesses or Winston. Might keep in mind draft of QB. I do not know facts about any wrongdoing just know investigation going on, and there is a requirement Uber drivers must run inside and outside video. Bucs moving forward like the three monkeys here no evil see no evil speak no evil. Pewter trolls taking about lineman and defensive players with at least 1 good QB left by the 7th pick.

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