FAB 3. Final Bucs’ 53-Man Roster Prediction

Tampa Bay’s 2019 preseason has two games left and the Bucs are 1-1 with a narrow win over Miami last week, and a close, 30-28 loss at Pittsburgh in the preseason opener. Preseason play will dictate starting jobs and playing time for some, and roster spots for others. While it might be easy to make the prediction after the third preseason, it’s more fun and challenging to make the final Bucs’ 53-Man roster prediction beforehand.

Tampa Bay has a big game against a playoff contender in Cleveland on Friday night that will prove to be a good measuring stick for how ready the Bucs are to face some of the league’s more talented teams. Tampa Bay’s preseason finale at Dallas is on Thursday, August 29, prior to roster cut-down day, which is on Saturday, August 31 at 4:00 p.m. ET.

Bucs GM Jason Licht and head coach Bruce Arians – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Remember, there aren’t two roster cut-down days in the NFL anymore – just one cut from 90 players to 53. Here is how I think the final roster will shake out – but keep in mind that general manager Jason Licht and head coach Bruce Arians will be keeping a close eye on the waiver wire and will add a couple of players from other teams like Licht did last year with edge rusher Carl Nassib. It’s just impossible to know who’s going to get cut from other teams right now, so this 53-man roster is comprised of players that went through training camp in Tampa Bay.

QUARTERBACKS – 2

QB Jameis Winston
QB Blaine Gabbert
Analysis: No changes here. Despite the solid play from Ryan Griffin in the preseason, he lacks the experience in Bruce Arians’ offense and the arm strength necessary to truly be successful in this system. For the second time, he’s left off this prediction. Arians has Winston as the undisputed starter, and will rely on the fact that Gabbert knows the offense, and has played in his system and won games before in Arizona. Gabbert wins the backup QB job by default despite being outplayed by Griffin in the preseason.

RUNNING BACKS – 4

RB Peyton Barber
RB Ronald Jones
RB Dare Ogunbowale
RB Andre Ellington
Analysis: Nothing changes from my initial prediction. Barber’s experience make him the opening day starter, while Jones, who is a bigger, more confident runner, has impressed in camp and in the preseason. Yet a hyperextended knee in the second preseason game has slowed down his momentum a bit. I had Ogunbowale third on the list at RB3 before the preseason started and he’s proved me right. Great in pass pro and as a receiver, he’ll see playing time this year. Ellington is a veteran who knows Arians offense, and he provides valuable depth.

WIDE RECEIVERS – 5

WR Mike Evans
WR Chris Godwin
WR Breshad Perriman
WR Bobo Wilson
WR Scotty Miller
Analysis: There are changes at the bottom of the depth chart after the top three receivers – Evans, Godwin and Perriman. Instead of keeping six receivers the Bucs keep only five because they’ll need an extra roster spot to help on the defensive side of the ball due to injuries to defensive tackleVita Vea and linebacker Lavonte David. Pencil in another Pro Bowl season for Evans, who will put up big numbers. Godwin was the best and most consistent receiver in camp and should eclipse 1,000 yards for the first time. The 6-foot-2, 215-pound Perriman shows up in the red zone, and his 4.3 speed makes him a vertical threat. Justin Watson, who was WR4 in the initial 53-man roster prediction, has been inconsistent as a receiver and a blocker and needs two great preseason games to find his way back on this list. He’s been replaced by Bobo Wilson for now, who can make the team off of his punt return duties and yards-after-catch ability if he can finish the preseason strong. Rookie Scotty Miller, a speed merchant drafted in the fifth round, will need to impress in the final two preseason contests after missing time with a pulled hamstring. Keep an eye on DeMarkus Lodge and Emanuel Hall in the last two preseason games. If either one makes some noise and has a big game or two they could prompt the Bucs to keep six receivers or force either Miller or Wilson out.

TIGHT ENDS – 3

Bucs TE Antony Auclair – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

TE O.J. Howard
TE Cameron Brate
TE Antony Auclair
Analysis: No changes here, but there’s a slim chance the Bucs keep four tight ends if Tanner Hudson can vastly improve his in-line blocking in the next two preseason games. If not, he’s just a one-trick pony as a slow receiving tight end that won’t make the team. The Bucs love their top three tight ends with Howard already in Pro Bowl form and Brate back to being at full health. Auclair is the blocking tight end that is making strides running routes and catching the ball. Expect offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich to use a two-tight end set often, and occasionally a three-tight end set due to the receiving ability of Howard and Brate.

OFFENSIVE LINE – 9

LT Donovan Smith
LG Ali Marpet
C Ryan Jensen
RG Alex Cappa
RT Demar Dotson
OL Earl Watford
OT Caleb Benenoch
C NATE TREWYN
G ZACK BAILEY
Analysis: More changes here as I originally had Evan Smith and Cole Boozer making the team. Tampa Bay will keep nine offensive linemen, and one of those was going to be Michael Liedtke before he suffered a season-ending shoulder injury. The starters are set, but the team better hope Donovan Smith continues his iron man streak and lives up to his big contract extension because the Bucs don’t have a quality backup outside of the versatile Watford, who can play all five spots on the O-line. Marpet is the best and most consistent offensive lineman at left guard, and this blocking scheme is a better fit for Jensen’s style of smash-mouth play. He’s looked better in camp than he did last year. Cappa is all but entrenched as a starter at right guard following a great camp and two solid preseason performances. Dotson is healthier than he was a year ago and can hold down the right tackle spot for one more year. Again, Watford is the first guy off the bench if there is an injury at any position. Benenoch is back at right tackle where he belongs and has made some strides. Rookies Trewyn and Bailey have looked good in the preseason at center and guard, respectively, and should make the team unless the Bucs can find a better offensive lineman on the waiver wire in September. They’ll be looking for a swing tackle.

DEFENSIVE LINE – 7

DT Ndamukong Suh
DT Vita Vea
DE Will Gholston
DT Beau Allen
DE Rakeem Nunez-Roches
DL PATRICK O’CONNOR
DL TERRY BECKNER, JR.
Analysis: Two changes here as O’Connor replaces Ledbetter, who got hurt in camp at the wrong time, and Beckner makes the team. O’Connor, who had a sack against Miami last week, has enough size at 6-foot-4, 270 pounds to play inside in nickel pass rush situations, and can play the SAM outside linebacker role. He also contributes on special teams, which helps his versatility. Beckner, a seventh-round pick, makes the team because he can play nose tackle and three-technique. Vea is on the mend from an LCL (lateral collateral ligament) injury and the team remains hopeful he can play in Week 1, but the Bucs will likely have to carry an extra defensive tackle (Beckner) just in case. Vea can play anywhere on the line in Todd Bowles’ defense, but he’s a potential future Pro Bowler at nose tackle if he can stay healthy. If Vea misses time, Allen, who has bulked up to around 330 pounds this offseason, will fill in as a capable starter. Suh has been a huge addition to the defensive line. He brings an edge to the defense and is great at stopping the run. Gholston has bulked up to over 300 pounds and finally looks comfortable in a defense in Tampa Bay. He’s always had a 3-4 defensive end build and the strength to anchor against the right tackle and tight end. Nunez-Roches has been outstanding in camp and in the preseason. He is versatile enough to play all three D-line spots and he also plays on the field goal and field goal block teams.

INSIDE LINEBACKERS – 5

Bucs LB Lavonte David – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

MO Lavonte David
MIKE Devin White
MO Deone Bucannon
MIKE Kevin Minter
MIKE JACK CICHY
Analysis: There’s one change here as Cichy makes the team and replaces Devante Bond, who moved from inside linebacker to outside linebacker in the middle of camp. Cichy has returned from his ACL tear with a vengeance and is playing smart, fast and physical on defense and special teams. He makes the team as the fifth linebacker. David will miss the entire preseason as he recovers from meniscus surgery. He had a great camp before he got hurt and quickly learned Bowles’ scheme, which featured him prominently. White, the Bucs’ first-round pick, is rapidly getting better and is making more plays in the run game. Next up for him will be generating splash plays – sacks and takeaways. Bucannon, who knows this defense dating back to his days in Arizona, starts in place of David at the MO ‘backer spot until David returns. He’s a fast linebacker that excels in coverage and on blitzes. Minter is a wily veteran MIKE linebacker that has served as a mentor to White as they both come from LSU. He knows Bowles’ defense inside and out and is great blitzer and run stuffer.

OUTSIDE LINEBACKERS – 5

SLB Carl Nassib
WLB Noah Spence
WLB Shaquil Barrett
WLB DEVANTE BOND
SLB Anthony Nelson
Analysis: One change here as Bond replaces David Kenney. Bond is an explosive rusher off the edge, and has the versatility of knowing the MIKE linebacker spot too, as well as being known as a core special teamer. Nassib is the starting SAM linebacker and is in a big contract year. The Bucs love his motor and blue-collar toughness. Spence has made big strides as a WILL linebacker on the weak side after being miscast as a 4-3 end the last three seasons. Barrett has been a nice veteran addition and can rush the passer from the strong side, the weakside or blitz inside lining up over a guard. An MCL knee injury wiped out Nelson’s preseason, but the Bucs will keep their fourth-round pick to play SAM linebacker.

CORNERBACKS – 5

CB Vernon Hargreaves
CB Carlton Davis
CB Jamel Dean
NCB Sean Murphy-Bunting
CB Mazzi Wilkins
Analysis: No changes here. As I stated before, coaching matters in the NFL, and cornerbacks coach Kevin Ross has done a tremendous job of working with his young corners, especially Hargreaves, who is taking the field with confidence and making plays. Hargreaves has locked down one starting spot and Davis is the front-runner for the other starting cornerback spot. He just needs to make more plays on the ball. Dean has passed Murphy-Bunting on my depth chart and is playing with confidence after recording an end zone interception in his NFL debut. The coaches are still waiting for Murphy-Bunting to makes some plays and rebound from a rough debut in Pittsburgh, but he can play outside cornerback and nickel in the slot. Wilkins has flashed some playmaking ability in camp and could make the team as the fifth cornerback, as Ryan Smith, a special teams star, will begin the season with a four-game suspension. The Bucs could also keep four cornerbacks and six safeties as M.J. Stewart can play both positions if Wilkins falters in the last two preseason games.

SAFETIES – 5

Bucs DBs M.J. Stewart and Jordan Whitehead – Photo by Mary Holt

SS Jordan Whitehead
FS Mike Edwards
SS-NCB M.J. Stewart
SS Kentrell Brice
FS Justin Evans
Analysis: No changes here. Whitehead has bulked up and gained 10 pounds of muscle this offseason. He’s a physical player, and has been solid in coverage in camp. Edwards is a playmaker at strong safety with interceptions and sacks. He’s flashed right out of the gate and should start alongside Whitehead if he can recover from a hamstring injury. D’Cota Dixon impressed in camp as a rookie and had a chance to make it if not for a season-ending injury. Instead, Brice, a veteran makes the team along with Stewart, who is versatile enough to play nickel, outside corner or strong safety. Stewart is seeing time as a blitzing safety and a run stopper, and has made strides in coverage. Still, his lack of elite speed is apparent and he’s still in the trail position too often while covering slot receivers. Evans hasn’t played or practiced since November due to a toe injury on one foot, followed by a heel injury on the other. Evans has plenty of talent and playmaking ability, but just started to run and will likely miss the preseason. He finally hit the practice field this past week and he’ll make the team based on his talent, his previous film and his second-round draft status.

SPECIAL TEAMS – 3

P Bradley Pinion
K Matt Gay
LS Zach Triner
Analysis: There are no changes here from our initial 53-man roster prediction. The Bucs’ special teams battery is completely knew this year. Pinion replaces Bryan Anger and will handle punts and kickoffs, while Triner is the new long snapper. So far Gay, a fifth-round pick with a booming leg, has been accurate enough to win the kicking duties over veteran Cairo Santos, who has limited range. Gay is the leader in the clubhouse with two preseason games to go.