FAB 2. THIRD DOWNS WILL TELL THE TALE IN DALLAS
While Tampa Bay’s defense has played at a Herculean level over the last five games – all Bucs victories – Dirk Koetter’s offense hasn’t exactly lit the scoreboard on fire outside of a 27-point effort in a 36-10 win over Chicago. The Bucs offense scored 19 points against Kansas City, 14 points against Seattle, 21 points in versus San Diego and just 16 points last week against New Orleans.

It’s going to take more than 19 points on offense for Tampa Bay to win at Dallas where the Cowboys have averaged 27 per game this season. The last time Dallas was held under 20 points was in a 20-19 loss to the New York Giants in Week 1.

Bucs QB Jameis Winston – Photo by: Mark Lomoglio/PR

Scoring has been a challenge for the Cowboys over the last two weeks away from Dallas. America’s team prevailed on Thursday Night Football in Minnesota two weeks ago, 17-15, when the Vikings’ game-tying two-point conversion attempt was no good. Last week in a 10-7 loss on Sunday Night Football at New York, the Giants held the Cowboys to just a single touchdown, which represented the lowest scoring output of the season for Dallas.

To get points in the NFL teams must sustain scoring drives. Outside of explosive plays that pick up automatic first downs on plays of 10 yards or more, in order to move the chains teams need to convert on third downs, and that’s where the Bucs may have a decided advantage, especially recently.

Tampa Bay is coming off a win against New Orleans where it converted 46 percent (6-of-13) of its third downs. On the year, the Bucs have converted 79 third downs, which ranks fifth in the NFL. Tampa Bay ranks sixth in the league with a 44.4 percent conversion rate this year.

By comparison, Dallas ranks 20th in third downs converted with just 66. The Cowboys’ conversion rate is 42.3 percent, which ranks 12th in the league.

Dallas used to be one of the better third down teams, but converted just 1-of-9 third downs at Minnesota. In last week’s loss against the Giants, the Cowboys converted only 1-of-15 third downs, which was their worst showing of the season. The fact that rookie quarterback Dak Prescott played his worst game of the year, completing 17-of-37 passes (45.9 percent) for 165 yards with one touchdown, two interceptions and a career-low 45.4 QB rating, certainly didn’t help.

Cowboys QB Dak Prescott – Photo by: Getty Images

This plays into the hands of Tampa Bay’s defense, which ranks second in the league with a 34.2 percent third down efficiency. During the team’s five-game winning streak the Bucs’ third down efficiency percentage is actually dipped to 29.4 percent.

Three weeks ago, the Bucs defense held the Seattle Seahawks to just nine percent on third down (1-of-11). If Tampa Bay can hold Dallas to around 30 percent on third downs while it converts 40 percent or more of its third downs the Bucs stand a good chance of winning their sixth straight game and improving to 9-5 this season.

Of course winning on third downs has a lot to do with winning on first and second downs, too. Third-and-2 scenarios are far easier to convert than third-and-7 situations. Koetter needs to establish Doug Martin and the Bucs’ ground game initially, and Winston must be accurate on passes on early downs to create those third-and-short situations.

Winning the turnover margin is always critical. That usually determines the outcome of most football games. But the winner on third down will go an awfully long way in declaring Sunday’s victor, too.