FAB 3. WINSTON CONSISTENTLY INCONSISTENT
The good news for Bucs quarterback Jameis Winston is that he is on pace to throw 34 touchdown passes this year, which is 12 more than he tossed last year as a rookie. The slightly bad news is that he’s also on pace to throw five more picks than he did a year ago, but most second-year QBs would take a 2:1 TD-to-INT ratio.

Yet more touchdowns may not necessarily translate into more wins for 3-5 Tampa Bay, as it’s key when those touchdowns and interceptions actually occur in games. Is Winston throwing game-winning touchdown passes or TD strikes in garbage time while trailing by double-digits in the fourth quarter? Are his interceptions back-breaking pick-sixes, or are they inconsequential turnovers like his INT off a deflection at San Francisco when Winston was completing 70 percent of his passes and three touchdowns in a blowout win over the 49ers?

Bucs QB Jameis Winston – Photo by: Mark Lomoglio/PR

But the one thing that has been consistent this year is Winston’s inconsistency, especially his accuracy when throwing the ball. Winston has completed 181-of-306 passes for 2,037 yards with 17 touchdowns and nine interceptions through eight games, and completed 59.2 percent of his passes. That is an ever-so-slight increase from last year’s 58.3 percent completion percentage.

After Sunday’s 30-24 overtime loss to Oakland, Winston addressed his accuracy issues as he and the Bucs went three-and-out on the final drive in regulation and also went three-and-out twice in overtime. Winston completed just 50 percent of his passes against the Raiders.

“Just like I say, mental preparation [is what will improve accuracy],” Winston said. “Going through my progressions, doing everything that I need to, to prepare for this game mentally. And that’s one of the things about my position and I use ‘precision’ instead of ‘accuracy’ because mentally, that’s how I have to think. I have to be precise. [Precision] is better than accuracy, so that’s already a step-forward attitude.”

Jameis Winston’s Passing Performances In 2016
Week 1: 31-24 W at Falcons – 23-of-32 (71.9 percent) for 281 yards, 4 TDs, 1 INT
Week 2: 40-7 L at Cardinals – 27-of-52 (51.9 percent) for 243 yards, 1 TD, 4 INTs
Week 3: 37-32 L vs. Rams – 36-of-58 (62.1 percent) for 405 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT
Week 4: 27-7 L vs. Broncos – 17-of-35 (48.6 percent) for 179 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs
Week 6: 17-14 W at Panthers – 18-of-30 (60 percent) for 219 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs
Week 7: 34-17 W at 49ers – 21-of-30 (70 percent) for 269 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT
Week 8: 30-24 L vs. Raiders – 16-of-32 (50 percent) for 180 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs
Week 9: 43-28 L vs. Falcons – 23-of-37 (62.1 percent) for 261 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs

What is clear from the data is that Winston completed at least 60 percent of his passes in all three of Tampa Bay’s victories. The Bucs don’t have much of a chance of winning unless that happens.

In three of the Bucs’ five losses his completion percentage is around 50 percent. The exceptions were the Rams game in which Tampa Bay lost a 10-point lead in the first half, and the Falcons game on Thursday night. Winston and the Bucs lost a winnable game at home against Los Angeles and were simply over-matched against a superior Atlanta team, but Winston’s completion percentage has told the story of Tampa Bay’s other victories and defeats.

Last year, Winston was 5-2 in games in which he completed 61 percent of his passes or more. The losses came at Washington in a 31-30 defeat in which he completed a season-high 72.4 percent of his throws, and also in a 38-10 loss at Carolina in Week 17 when he completed 61.7 percent of his passes. The 2015 Bucs also won one game in which he completed less than 60 percent, and that came at Atlanta in a 23-20 overtime triumph in which Winston completed 55.2 percent of his passes.

Simply put, the Bucs have never won a game in which he has completed less than 55 percent of his throws.

One might think that interceptions tell the tale of a quarterback’s day far better than accuracy, but that’s not the case with Winston. Look no further than Winston’s two-touchdown, no-interception day in last Sunday’s loss to Oakland, and his three-touchdown, no-interception night against Atlanta on Thursday.

Bucs QB Jameis Winston – Photo by: Mark Lomoglio/PR

Winston also didn’t throw an interception against New York and New Orleans at home last year and on the road at Washington, and the Bucs wound up losing all three of those games. Winston and the Bucs also wound up beating Dallas at home last year, 10-6, despite him throwing two interceptions and having no touchdown passes.

After starting the 2016 campaign with eight touchdown passes and eight interceptions in the first four games, Winston has done a better job of protecting the ball since throwing two picks against Denver on September 25. Over the last four games he has thrown nine touchdowns and just one interception, which is marked improvement.

Winston said he has to balance making the throws that wind up as completions while doing his best not to throw interceptions.

“Protecting the football is always going to be the top priority for this team, I’ve just got to make those plays,” Winston said. “I’ve made those plays before, I can make those plays. Protect the football is always going to be up there.”

The fact that Winston threw for 4,042 yards and is on pace to throw for 4,074 yards this year coupled with his completion percentage, which is virtually unchanged from a year ago, suggests that Winston hasn’t improved much from his rookie year outside of the increased number of touchdowns he’s projected to have. Keep in mind that Winston had six rushing scores while he has just one this year, so it may be that his 10-touchdown increase from a year ago is actually him becoming a better red zone passer with last year’s rushing touchdowns materializing this year as TD throws.

While it would be great to see Winston’s touchdown numbers increase and his number of interceptions decrease, what needs to happen for the Bucs to continue to win is for the second-year quarterback’s accuracy – or “precision,” as he calls it – to increase. Finishing out the year as a 60-plus percent passer would be a key indicator that Winston and Tampa Bay are heading precisely in the right direction.