Let’s put a couple of things to bed right off the bat, just so we enter this evaluation with a clear understanding of who Tom Brady is as a quarterback – the next QB of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

There is an assumption in the media that Tom Brady can’t throw deep anymore, but there simply isn’t a single statistic that backs that up. Using Playerprofiler.com, I looked at Tom Brady’s deep passing efficiency and frequency last season.

Number of throws 20 yards or more downfield: 60 (15th-most in NFL)

Bucs QB Tom Brady – Photo by: Getty Images

On an offense without any semblance of a quality vertical threat, Brady still threw passes over 20 yards at a league average rate.

Deep ball completion percentage: 41.7 percent (9th-best in NFL)

That’s raw completion percentage, not even taking into account drops, throwaways, deep throws under pressure, etc. Ninth in the NFL. In case you’re wondering, Jameis Winston was 17th in the league last season at just over 36 percent.

Here’s some truth: Brady is not the best deep passer in the league.

Here’s some more truth: Brady is still a quality deep passer despite having a severe lack of adequate deep ball options in New England.

That part of this evaluation really shouldn’t be in question. Brady still throws vertically, and he still does it well enough to succeed, which is good because Bruce Arians runs a vertical offense in Tampa Bay. As Pro Football Focus’ Timo Riske astutely points out in his recent article on a potential Brady-Arians marriage, Brady has adapted to whatever the Patriots’ passing attack has been throughout his career, and he’s done so without losing his effectiveness.

When Randy Moss and Brandin Cooks were in New England, Brady shredded teams deep. Chris Hogan had a couple of the best years of his career because Brady constantly put the deep ball on him. When the Patriots didn’t have any notable deep threats over the past two seasons, Brady remained a fine deep ball passer, it just wasn’t as successful or as frequent a method of attack for New England as it had been in the past.

Last thing I’ll say on the topic of can and will Brady throw deep: the most important thing about playing quarterback in Arians’ offense is that you have to be aggressive. You gotta play with some cojones. Ben Roethlisberger did in Pittsburgh, Carson Palmer did in Arizona and Winston, for all his flaws, also did in Tampa Bay.

Brady has made a career out of big-time throws in big-time moments. He’s the ultimate competitor and he will never hesitate to push the ball down the field or into tight windows when it’s there. The biggest issue I had with Teddy Bridgewater and Derek Carr as potential quarterbacks of the Bucs weren’t their dismal deep ball numbers, it was the fact that even when it was there, they just wouldn’t throw it. They aren’t built like that mentally.

Both quarterbacks are passive, take-what-is-there passers who simply don’t challenge defenses enough. They are easy to scheme for, and they don’t adapt when you take away their first preference. Nobody has ever accused Brady of struggling in that regard. In fact, he’s made a career out of continually adjusting to defenses, and his mind and competitive edge are as sharp as ever. Brady has the perfect mentality for a quarterback in Arians’ offense, and even if his physical tools aren’t elite anymore, that mindset is the most important part of this fit.

Bucs QB Tom Brady – Photo by: Getty Images

Now, let’s look at the tape.

There is admittedly a lot of issues to work through. Unless it was routine stuff, it seemed like there were so many instances throughout the season where Brady and his receivers were just not on the same page. Timing and details were really lacking, which made it hard to evaluate Brady’s accuracy at times.

Make no mistake, Brady did not play well by his standards over the second half of last season, missing too many throws and not looking as settled under pressure as he typically has. I think frustration was a big reason for the struggles, as Brady really hadn’t operated an offense that was so significantly lacking in talent for some time.

The Tom Brady that could win with next-to-nothing? That guy is gone. That’s also a non-issue in Tampa Bay, where the Bucs have the best wide receiver duo in the NFL in Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. Chemistry and communication were big issues in New England last year, as the team was forced to rely on a raw rookie in N’Keal Harry and a mid-season addition in Mohamed Sanu after Antonio Brown and Josh Gordon were released.

Nevertheless, I did my best to sort through the mess and evaluate Brady’s deep ball, first looking specifically at throws that threaten defenses over the top. “Distance deep balls” is what I called them. His raw numbers seem pretty fair. Most of his worst throws are still catchable, albeit roughly placed, but none of the receivers he had were going up and making plays on the ball either.

The Patriots didn’t run the ball well most of the year, and teams wisely defended them with a lot of two-high safety looks. On top of not having a great vertical threat, this made chunk plays over the top even more difficult to come by. Brady gets clobbered on this play-action shot into what ends up being double-coverage, but still delivers a pretty solid ball that Philip Dorsett can’t adjust to.

There simply aren’t physical issues for Brady in terms of throwing the deep ball. Placement and timing, yes, those needed work at times last season, but his inexperienced receiving corps also had a lot to do with that. In terms of his ability to throw for distance, there were plenty of 40-50 yard throws in the air that looked effortless. Keep in mind these types of throws are a very small percentage of an offense’s attack in most games, but it’s important to have the arrow in your quiver. Brady clearly still does.

Back to that inexperienced receiving corps. It looks like Brady is trying to lead Harry away from the safety on this vertical route, but the rookie doesn’t stack the cornerback, slows down and then fails to track the ball successfully. The ball is thrown close to where it needed to be, but Harry’s positioning isn’t ideal.

The Patriots’ issues with the deep ball were simply far more of a personnel issue and lack of chemistry concern than it was Brady missing open receivers. That just doesn’t happen consistently on tape. He’s throwing into contested windows all the time when he does throw vertically, which is probably why he only threw deep (20+ yards) at a league average rate. There just isn’t any separation down the field, and there is even less finishing in contested situations when the ball does get there.

I watched every Brady throw of 20 yards or more over the final five games of the 2019 season, and I was impressed with the way the ball still comes off the 42 year-old quarterback’s hand. He can absolutely still spin it, throwing with regular velocity right down to the last time we saw him on the field in the playoffs against the Tennessee Titans.

Those are two elite throws into tight windows with a ton of velocity on the ball. That’s more encouraging to me than anything, because it shows the physical tools are still there to get the job done. Now it becomes about establishing timing, chemistry and communication with his new weapons in Tampa Bay.

One other observation from Brady’s tape that is somewhat of a concern: he’s always needed good conditions to throw accurately, but now more-so than ever. Brady is still excellent stepping up against edge pressure, and he makes good decisions under pressure as always, but compressed pockets and free interior rushers had him throwing off his back foot more than I remembered in the past, and the results weren’t pretty.

Now, Brady still has a quick release, good pocket movement and terrific progression speed, so this issue isn’t going to come up on a per-snap basis. Tampa Bay will need to prioritize their offensive line during the rest of the offseason, but Brady has enough ways to beat pressure with his mind that I think this weakness, which he’s really always had to some degree, can be overcome.

Here are two additional resources on evaluating Brady’s recent play. The first is from Mark Schofield, one of the best quarterback gurus on the planet and a Patriots analyst for SB Nation’s Pats Pulpit. If you’re on Twitter, follow him. He did this detailed Twitter thread on Brady’s standout play from the 2018 season, the last time the star quarterback was a part of a competent offense.

Brady, McDaniels and the Patriots’ 2018 Passing Game: A Thread.

What they do well, things to watch for on Sunday, and some of what makes Brady…Brady.

Week 4 against Miami. Corner route to James White out of the backfield. Releases this when White is at the 6. #Anticipation pic.twitter.com/IAmvGpW62T

— Mark Schofield (@MarkSchofield) January 29, 2019

Steven Cheah, co-host of the Going Deep podcast, also did an excellent breakdown of some 2019 Brady tape, which featured plenty of vertical throws and nuanced quarterback play that should give Bucs fans reason to be optimistic moving forward.

How does Tom Brady fit into Bruce Arians’ vertical offense? I took a look at his tape from 2019 to find out! pic.twitter.com/BunawGf5R8

— Steven Cheah (@StevenCheah) March 18, 2020

Of course, the biggest bonus with Brady is that he is truly the anti-Winston in that he is consistently near the bottom of the league in turnovers, turnover-worthy plays and sacks taken. He may not put the team on his back and single-handedly win games for you like he did in his prime, but Brady basically never loses them for you. That’s incredibly reassuring for a Bucs team that feels like they could have had a winning record last season if not for so many Winston miscues – 30 interceptions to be exact.

Nobody is claiming that Brady – at 42 years old – is the ideal, perfect quarterback to run any offense, let alone Arians’ scheme. But he was clearly the best available option this offseason, and still has the ability to play very well in Tampa Bay. The Bucs hit an absolute home run by luring Brady to Florida, and now they will need to continue to smash some dingers with the way they address the rest of the offseason.

There are still some unknown variables to how this team will perform in 2020, but quarterback, the most important position on the field, is no longer one of them. Brady will get the job done, the question marks now lie on the offensive line and the Bucs’ young secondary. More on that in the coming weeks.