Betting The Bucs is a weekly segment that focuses on the gambling lines for each Tampa Bay game during the season. We’ll take a look into different aspects of the game to help you make your decision on whether to bet for or against the Bucs. We’ll also break down various prop bets to take before you watch on Sunday.

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The Line: Bucs -3.5, O/U 54

This is one of those matchups that technically isn’t a playoff game, but it feels like more than your typical regular season meeting. The Bucs and Bills have a lot to play for on Sunday afternoon, as Tampa Bay looks to stay in the race for the number one seed in the NFC. Meanwhile, Buffalo looks to reclaim first place in their division. On top of that, it’s an opportunity for star quarterbacks Tom Brady and Josh Allen to showcase for MVP candidacy this season.

The numbers will tell you that picking the under is the right choice, considering that the Bucs have gone under in five of their last seven games and it has hit in four of the last six for the Bills. But with these quarterbacks, we’re looking at a different story. Brady has been lights out at home, throwing 20 touchdowns in just five games. The Bucs also haven’t played against a top level quarterback since Matthew Stafford in Week 3, when he shredded Tampa Bay for 343 yards and four touchdowns. Josh Allen has the talent and he’s a mobile quarterback as well. That’s another thing that the Bucs haven’t really mastered yet. For all the sacks they’ve gotten lately, they’ve also whiffed on many opportunities to take down quarterbacks.

As good of a game as this can be, I don’t trust the Bucs’ defense to change up their game plan. They’ve struggled mightily on third down, and their blitzes haven’t gotten home often enough. Because the Bucs play such soft coverage in the pass game, I see Allen having few issues moving the ball up and down the field. Tampa Bay has relied on splash plays and turnovers of late, but they might not get that against this type of offense.

The Pick: Bills +3.5, Over 54

Prop Bets:

Tom Brady Over 2.5 TD Passes (+125) 

The Bills have one of the best pass defenses in the league, but they also haven’t faced a quarterback like Brady this season. He’s dominated at home, and only has one game in Tampa this season where he didn’t throw at least four touchdowns. In a game where they’ll be throwing the ball a lot, he’ll get his opportunities.

Mike Evans TD (+120)

In the two seasons that Evans has had Brady as his quarterback, he hasn’t gone more than two games without scoring a touchdown. He’s been held out of the end zone over the last two games, so it’s about time he scores again.

Chris Godwin Over 6.5 Receptions (-135)

Godwin is coming off a franchise record 15 receptions last week. While I don’t think he’ll reach that number this week, the Bucs do manufacture a lot of plays for Godwin, especially with screens at the line of scrimmage. Predicting that they dial up at least two or three of those calls, he’ll just need four other receptions, which he’s more than capable of getting.