It’s time for PewterReport.com’s 2-Point Conversion post-game column, which features two statements, two questions and two predictions based on the latest Bucs game. Tampa Bay blew a second half lead in Tennessee thanks to turnovers and red zone woes – two things that have caused several losses for the team this year – in a 27-23 defeat. The 2-5 Bucs are seeing their playoff hopes diminish as each loss mounts.

2 BIG STATEMENTS

STATEMENT 1: Turnovers, Red Zone Woes Continue To Plague Bucs

Tampa Bay didn’t have seven turnovers in the team’s 27-23 loss at Tennessee on Sunday like it had in its 37-26 loss to Carolina in London before the bye week. The Bucs only turned the ball over four times, but still had a minus-3 turnover ratio, and that was enough to give the Titans the edge to improve to 4-4 while Tampa Bay fell to 2-5.

The first turnover came when Jameis Winston, who accounted for six turnovers in London, fumbled the snap from center Ryan Jensen, who snapped the ball prematurely. That gave Tennessee the ball on Tampa Bay’s 10-yard line, two plays later, quarterback Ryan Tannehill hit tight end Jonnu Smith with a 5-yard touchdown to give the Titans a 7-3 lead.

An outstretched hand from a Titans defensive lineman may have altered the trajectory of Winston’s seventh pass of the game, which was intercepted by cornerback Malcolm Butler at the Tampa Bay 29 and returned to the 6-yard line. Wide receiver Chris Godwin read the coverage wrong and stopped his route from going inside, which was where Winston was going with the football. After the game, head coach Bruce Arians said that neither of Winston’s two interceptions were the quarterback’s fault.

Bucs head coach Bruce Arians – Photo by: Mary Holt/PR

“Everybody is going to want to say that Jameis threw interceptions,” Arians said. “Jameis didn’t throw one damn interception that was his fault. His receivers let him down today. Guys stopped on routes that were supposed to be going down the middle. The last play that was supposed to go down the middle should have been a big play. He played his tail off, and you can write what you want. Not one of those interceptions was his fault, and it’s a damn shame.”

Winston’s third turnover came in the fourth quarter with just under five minutes left when Harold Landry knocked the ball loose on a sack when he got around left tackle Donovan Smith. Landry recovered the ball to snuff out Tampa Bay’s drive.

Winston’s second and final interception came late in the fourth quarter when Breshad Perriman kept running a vertical route and didn’t cut towards the middle of the field where Winston was throwing the ball. Whether it’s been Winston’s fault, or the fault of others, the recent turnovers by the Bucs offense have not only robbed Tampa Bay of scoring opportunities, but also put the defense in a precarious situation – often having to defend a short field.

That was the case in London where the Bucs had to defend five drives that started inside their own 36-yard line and resulted in 20 points by the Panthers in Carolina’s 11-point victory.

Panthers’ Starting Field Position In Tampa Bay Territory
Tampa Bay 25 – field goal
Tampa Bay 36 – touchdown
Tampa Bay 8 – touchdown
Tampa Bay 16 – field goal
Tampa Bay 24 – missed field goal

The Titans had three drives start inside the Bucs’ 36-yard line on Sunday and produced 14 points in a four-point win by Tennessee.

Titans’ Starting Field Position In Tampa Bay Territory
Tampa Bay 10 – touchdown
Tampa Bay 6 – touchdown
Tampa Bay 36 – fake field goal attempt no good

Tampa Bay’s defensive problems in the red zone are twofold. The Bucs defense has been put in a bind too often with too many short fields to defend, and the defense is not doing a good job holding opposing offenses to field goals.

“We have to hold them to three,” Arians said. “If we play the right technique both times we hold them to three, but we played the wrong technique. Alright? That’s frustrating. Our young secondary has to get their head out of their ass and do what they’re coached to do.”

Bucs CB Carlton Davis – Photo by: Mary Holt/PR

Tannehill was held to 21-of-33 passing for 193 yards, but threw three touchdowns inside the red zone. Second-year cornerback Carlton Davis gave up two scores.

As far as the offense, Tampa Bay’s red zone production is worse than it was a year ago, and it’s really harming the Bucs’ chances of winning. At Tennessee, the Bucs had to settle for 22-yard and 24-yard field goals from Matt Gay in the first quarter and finished the day with just two touchdowns on four red zone trips – 50 percent – while the Titans were perfect with red zone efficiency (3-of-3).

“Anytime we get into the red zone we want to score touchdowns,” Winston said. “That’s what we want to do. That’s what every team in the league wants to do. They want to score touchdowns, but we didn’t. We still fought back and we got the lead, so hey, it didn’t really matter at the time, but it ended up biting us in the end.”

The Bucs entered the game converting just 54.55 percent of its red zone opportunities into touchdowns, which ranked 18th in the NFL and is lower than last year’s 60 percent conversion rate. That number will go down a bit after Sunday’s red zone woes. Keep in mind that former Bucs offensive coordinator Todd Monken said that “we absolutely chose to suck” when describing Tampa Bay’s red zone woes last year.

Perhaps it’s time for Arians to take over the play-calling in the red zone – or even the entire game – instead of letting rookie offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich continue to have that responsibility as the Bucs keep sucking in the red zone.

STATEMENT 2: Evans’ Record Day Goes For Naught In Bucs’ Loss

What a day it was for Bucs wide receiver Mike Evans, who almost single-handedly willed Tampa Bay to a win at Tennessee. But the Titans prevailed, 27-23, by holding the star receiver without a catch in the fourth quarter. Evans finished the day with 11 catches for 198 yards and two touchdowns. With his spectacular day, several franchise records fell.

Evans broke James Wilder’s career receptions record of 430 in the third quarter as he hauled in nine catches for 182 yards and two touchdowns at that point to give the Bucs a 23-17 lead. Evans now owns most of Tampa Bay’s receiving record, including career catches (433), career yards (6,765) and career receiving touchdowns (46), in addition to most receiving yards in a single season (1,524) and most touchdowns in a season (12).

Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photo by: Mary Holt/PR

Evans tied his own career best for most catches in a game, and came close to beating his personal receiving yardage record, which came with 209 yards and two touchdowns on nine catches in a 27-7 win at Washington during his rookie season in 2014. Evans now has 23 games where he has gone over 100 yards, which is also a franchise record.

With his two touchdowns at Tennessee, Evans moved into a tie with Wilder with 46 career touchdowns for second place on the Bucs’ all-time touchdown list behind Mike Alstott’s 71. Winston said that the reason why Evans didn’t have a catch in the fourth quarter after erupting for nearly 200 yards in the first three quarters was a change made by Tennessee’s defense.

“They doubled him,” Winston said. “They doubled him, but we just didn’t have a good route for him to get open. They just doubled him. We give him a lot of match-up opportunities and they doubled him. We exposed them for most of the game because they doubled Chris, but at the end they doubled [Mike].”

2 PROBING QUESTIONS

QUESTION 1: Why Was An Inadvertent Whistle Blown On Titans’ Fake FG?

Good question. The refs screwed the Bucs earlier in October in a seven-point loss at New Orleans, as I documented in a previous 2-Point Conversion column at that time. And the refs were at it again on Sunday in Tennessee, blowing the whistle too quickly on a fumble that was forced on the Titans’ fake field goal attempt in the fourth quarter.

Rookie middle linebacker Devin White saw the fake attempt coming and knifed in to hit holder Brett Kern for no gain on fourth-and-2 and force a fumble. Free safety Andrew Adams scooped up the loose ball and raced 70 yards for an apparent touchdown to give Tampa Bay the lead – only to find out that the play had been blown dead inadvertently by the officials.

Because the whistle was blown, the Bucs couldn’t review the play – even though White clearly forced a fumble prior to Kern hitting the ground.

Devin White BLEW UP the Titans punter… HOW WAS THIS NOT A FUMBLE?! Should have been a #GoBucs Defensive TD. I’m pissed. pic.twitter.com/HoZl8Pw6D7

— Zac Blobner (@ZacOnTheMic) October 27, 2019

“To have a fumble, pick it up and run it in for a touchdown and have an inadvertent whistle is always tough,” Arians said. “The inadvertent whistle is a huge, huge play because we pick up a fumble and run it in for a touchdown and win the game and it’s not good.”

QUESTION 2: Did JPP Play Enough In Tennessee?

Probably not. Outside linebacker Jason Pierre-Paul was on a pitch count on Sunday in his return to action since fracturing a vertebrae in his neck in a car crash back in May, but the Bucs probably could have played him even more in hindsight.

It didn’t take long for Pierre-Paul to make his presence felt, getting a sack on his second snap of the season. Outside linebacker Shaq Barrett got a great jump off the snap and drew a double team, while Pierre-Paul beat his man one-on-one.

Bucs OLB Jason Pierre-Paul – Photo by: Mary Holt/PR

Not only did Pierre-Paul have an affect on Tampa Bay’s pass rush, he was also a force against the run with three tackles for loss, and it looked like he was in on more than just the three tackles the NFL statisticians gave him credit for.

Barrett became the NFL sack leader with 10 sacks after notching one in Tennessee after being shut out the two previous games. Barrett also secured a $250,000 incentive bonus for hitting double-digit sacks on the season. Barrett, who earns $250,000 per game due to his $4 million salary, doubled his pay for the day in just one play. Barrett also forced a fumble on the play, which was his fourth of the season to lead the team.

Outside linebacker Carl Nassib recorded his third sack of the season when he dropped Tannehill in the third quarter on third down to force a punt. Pierre-Paul was on the field for all three of the Bucs’ sacks on Sunday, and will likely play even more snaps next week in Seattle than he did in Tennessee.

“I kept asking him, ‘Are you playing too much?’ and he said ‘I’m not playing enough,’” Arians said. “It was amazing what he did early and it was great having him back there.”

2 BOLD PREDICTIONS

PREDICTION 1: Tampa Bay Will Cut Perriman

Tampa Bay should cut Perriman after Sunday’s awful performance. It’s one thing that he literally tackled Dare Ogunbowale for a two-yard loss on a red zone run on third-and-goal from the Tennessee 4-yard line, but he also didn’t do anything as a receiver to warrant keeping.

The wide receiver tackles the running back in the backfield … that’s a new one. I’ve never seen that before in 24 years of covering the Bucs.

Winston took the blame for the Keystone Cops-like collision near the goal line on third down, but Perriman is a veteran and should have realized the timing was off and slammed on the brakes before running into Ogunbowale.

Bucs WR Breshad Perriman – Photo by: Mary Holt/PR

“That was on me – that was a timing snap,” Winston said. “We worked on it in practice. That was the first time we had done that with him in a game. That was on me. I just have to have better timing.”

Perriman had what looked like an easy two-point conversion catch in the second quarter, but couldn’t get both feet in bounds at the back of the end zone. Perriman also appeared to run the wrong route on the final play of the game and stayed outside when Winston anticipated him going inside. The result was an interception, Winston’s second of the day.

Perriman returned from a hamstring injury to finish the day with zero catches with four targets. He had several mental errors following the bye week and if the Bucs cut Perriman it will allow the team to gain a compensatory draft pick, possibly as high as the fourth round. The Bucs need to do it and stop wasting time on a receiver that has just 16 yards on three catches this season and grab a compensatory pick for next year.

PREDICTION 2: Bucs Will Eventually Move On From Winston

There are nine games left in Tampa Bay’s 2019 season, but it will take a miraculous turnaround for Winston to warrant the Bucs using the franchise tag on him next year – let alone signing the former 2015 first overall pick to a long-term contract extension. Winston just cannot stop turning the ball over and it’s killing the Buccaneers.

Winston had four turnovers in Tennessee, although not all of his turnovers were necessarily his fault, as Arians explained. Yet there is just something – bad luck, a black cloud, bad mojo, something – about Tampa Bay’s fifth-year quarterback that makes him a turnover machine. Winston now has 91 turnovers since 2015, which is the most in the NFL by far. Former Jacksonville quarterback Blake Bortles has 76, and former New York Giants starting quarterback Eli Manning has 74 since 2015.

At 2-5 after Sunday’s loss at Tennessee, it’s hard to imagine the Bucs not finishing the season with double-digit losses once again as Tampa Bay would have to finish 5-4 down the stretch to post a 7-9 record. With the team losing three straight games and another tough road contest at Seattle looming next week, a 5-4 finish seems highly unlikely – almost as unlikely as Winston returning as the Bucs’ starting quarterback in 2020.

Bruce Arians and Andrew Luck – Photo by: Getty Images

Regardless of what Arians thinks of Winston after Sunday’s loss at Tennessee, he’ll change his mind by the end of the season as Winston’s turnovers continue to pile up. I hope that’s not the case given all the investment the Bucs franchise has made in Winston, but I just don’t see this tiger changing his stripes.

I predict that not only will the Bucs consider drafting a quarterback in the first round next year, but the team could try to make a play for Andrew Luck, a former Arians pupil, coming out of retirement – even though that may be a long shot. Of course Tampa Bay would have to trade a first-round pick – and likely more – to Indianapolis, which still holds Luck’s rights if the 30-year old quarterback were to return to the game after sitting out the 2019 season. Whether it’s Luck or a rookie, it’s becoming more and more unlikely than a quarterback other than Winston will be under center in 2020.