With training camp less than two weeks away, there is something peculiar brewing in Tampa Bay. The Bucs still haven’t signed their first draft pick from the 2022 NFL Draft – defensive tackle Logan Hall.

To most this might seem a bit peculiar. The NFL uses a slotting system for draft picks that ensures each player will get a certain amount of money in their contract based on where they were drafted. There isn’t much room for negotiation.

What Could Be Holding Up The Deal?

So why hasn’t the team reached a deal with their rookie defensive tackle? Most likely this has to do with fully guaranteed money. In 2021 the NFL set a new record for how many draft picks received fully guaranteed contracts since the 2012 collective bargaining agreement capped rookie contracts. The top 28 draft picks that year were able to negotiate their deals with a 100% guarantee. This year every first-round pick was able to do the same.

It stands to reason that Hall wants to become the first second-round pick to get a fully guaranteed deal. Last year’s 32nd pick was cornerback Tyson Cambell of the Jacksonville Jaguars. His contract was a four-year deal worth $9,015,108 with $7,175,744 fully guaranteed. The full guarantee represents 80% of the total contract. Campbell was able to fully guarantee the first three years of his contract along with $50,000 of his fourth year.

Hall’s deal will also be a four-year contract and should come in at $9,316,459 per Brad Spielberger of Pro Football Focus.

Where Will Hall’s Guarantee Land?

Assuming Hall won’t settle for a guarantee at a lower rate than Campbell’s the floor for his guarantee sits at roughly $7.45 million. Personally, I don’t think Hall gets the full number. The Bucs have all the leverage in negotiations, and I don’t believe they will want to set the precedent.

Spielberger agrees. When I asked him about the possibility of Hall getting a fully guaranteed contract, Spielberger replied “I don’t think he is pushing for a fully guaranteed deal. But I do think he is trying to get a chunk of year four guaranteed. Campbell was the first second-rounder to get some of year four guaranteed last year, but still just $50,000. So, he’ll look to top that.”

There are two other high second-round players who seem to be waiting on Hall to sign before committing to their own contracts. Wide receiver Christian Watson of the Packers and cornerback Roger McCreary of the Titans, who were selected with the two picks directly after Hall, are also not signed as of this writing.

Meanwhile, running back Breece Hall of the New York Jets, who was taken after McCreary, has signed his deal with the details of the guarantee still not confirmed. Jalen Pitre is the highest second-rounder to have signed with details of his guarantee available. Per overthecap.com, Pitre has the first three years of his deal guaranteed. Those combined with his signing bonus bring his guarantees to 78.4% of his $8,954,436 total contract.

My Projection

My guess is the contract gets signed just before training camp. I believe the full guarantee will include around $300,000 of the fourth-year salary. That would be around $7.67 million of the total contract value. It will represent a win-win for both sides. The Bucs will hold off on setting the fully guaranteed precedent for second-round picks that the NFL seems to be careening towards. Meanwhile, Hall will get to advance that guaranteed number higher than it has been previously.