The Bucs are set up to win another Super Bowl this season. They have one of the most talented rosters in the NFL, and it’s entirely fair to say injury luck is the biggest obstacle that can keep them from hoisting the Lombardi Trophy for the second time in three years.

However, the road to Arizona won’t be easy. Tampa Bay’s schedule is full of 2021 playoff teams. The Cowboys, Packers, Chiefs, Bengals, 49ers and Rams are all on the slate. But aside from the Rams, the team the Bucs may want to see the least is the Saints, a team they will see twice.

New Orleans has beaten Tampa Bay in seven straight regular season games dating back to 2018. Since Tom Brady’s arrival in 2020, the Bucs are 0-4 against the Saints in the regular season. Of course, fortunes were reversed when the two teams met in the playoffs two seasons ago. Tampa Bay won 30-20 at the Superdome to clinch a spot in the NFC Championship Game.

Playoffs aside, though, the Bucs have a Saints problem. But why?

Former Saints Safety: New Orleans Is ‘Built’ To Beat Tampa Bay

Bucs TE Rob Gronkowski and Saints SS Malcolm Jenkins – Photo by: USA Today

Recently retired safety Malcolm Jenkins spoke on the Rich Eisen Show on Thursday, and he had plenty to say about the Saints’ dominance over Brady and the Bucs in the last two years. Jenkins, who spent 2009-2013 and 2020-2021 with the Saints, said it all comes down to matchups. He said it’s not necessarily about Brady. Rather, it’s about what New Orleans does to take away from what the seven-time Super Bowl champion quarterback does best. 

“Those two years, you had myself matched up with Gronk. That was a good matchup,” Jenkins said. “You have [Marshon] Lattimore on Mike Evans. That’s a great matchup. CJ Gardner-Johnson’s in the slot [and] was on [Antonio Brown] or [Chris] Godwin. That’s a great matchup. On the other side was [Paulson] Adebo or Janoris Jenkins, who can match up with any third receiver.

“Tom Brady’s whole game is ‘take advantage of matchup issues.’ There are none when the Saints play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.”

Jenkins has a point. Brady has been rendered ineffective against the Saints in the four regular season matchups between the two teams. It hasn’t always been his fault, either. It’s a matter of matchups, game planning, takeaways and sometimes circumstances. Consider, of course, that the last matchup featured injuries to Evans, Godwin and running back Leonard Fournette in the first half of a 9-0 game.

Bucs QB Tom Brady – Photo by: USA Today

Here’s a look at the breakdown of Brady’s performances over the Bucs’ last four regular season games against the Saints:

2020 Week 1 (NO 34, TB 23): 23-of-36 (63.9%), 239 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT

2020 Week 9 (NO 38, TB 3): 22-of-38 (57.9%), 209 yards, 0 TD, 3 INT

2021 Week 8 (NO 36, TB 27): 28-of-40 (70%), 375 yards, 4 TD, 2 INT, fumble

2021 Week 15 (NO 9, TB 0): 26-of-48 (54.2%), 214 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, fumble

Overall, Brady is 99-162 (61.1%) for 1,037 yards and six touchdowns in those four games. He threw eight interceptions and fumbled twice over those four matchups. The biggest issue is the turnovers, which the Saints have done a fantastic job of forcing. But there’s a deeper, more philosophical question here that Tampa Bay must answer in 2022, and it’s all about balance. 

How Can The Bucs Find A Solution In 2022?

Tampa Bay travels to New Orleans in Week 2 before the two teams meet again in Week 13 at Raymond James Stadium. So, what can the Bucs do to reverse the trend and snap their losing streak to the Saints this season? Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds wrote about it in one of his SR’s Fab 5 columns last month. And, as Jenkins told Rich Eisen, the formula lies within the Bucs’ January 2021 playoff win over the Saints.

Bucs QB Tom Brady and RB Leonard Fournette – Photo by: USA Today

“That one year where we beat them twice and they beat us in the playoffs, they won that game off of running the ball and their defense taking the ball away,” Jenkins said. “That, to me, when Brady tries to win that game throwing it, that plays right into the Saints’ hands. That style of play, Brady has to win that game with his left hand. That’s what makes that matchup so interesting and so difficult for him. Because what he does best — what works every single week — is not going to work against the Saints.”

Over the course of four regular season games against New Orleans, Brady has averaged 40.5 pass attempts per game. Here’s the rushing breakdown over those four games:

2020 Week 1 (NO 34, TB 23): 26 rush attempts, 86 yards (3.3 avg.)

2020 Week 9 (NO 38, TB 3): 5 rush attempts, 8 yards (1.6 avg.)

2021 Week 8 (NO 36, TB 27): 14 rush attempts, 71 yards (5.1 avg.)

2021 Week 15 (NO 9, TB 0): 21 rush attempts, 118 yards (5.6 avg.)

That most recent matchup is an interesting one. The Bucs actually ran the ball well, and you have to wonder if they could’ve mustered up 10 points had they not been hit with three key injuries throughout the night. But on the whole, Tampa Bay seems to favor the pass more than the run. And as Jenkins said, that isn’t going to work as well against the Saints.

Going back to the playoff matchup, the Bucs ran the ball 35 times for 127 yards (3.6 avg.). That helped them win the time of possession battle, and it made it so that they weren’t trying to win the game solely on Brady’s arm. He completed 18-of-33 pass attempts that night for 199 yards and two touchdowns. He also added a rushing touchdown of his own.

Running The Football Is Just One Key To Overcoming New Orleans

Bucs CB Sean Murphy-Bunting – Photo by: USA Today

To say that the Bucs just need to run the ball more to beat the Saints might sound like an oversimplification of the matchup. But it certainly can’t hurt. When asked about their Saints problem earlier this offseason, Tampa Bay tight end Cameron Brate also pointed to running the football as a potential key, drawing back to that playoff game.

“You see the game we won against the Saints in the playoffs in 2020. We ran the football. I think that’s the number one thing you have to do against a defense like that,” Brate said. “You have to have them respect the run. For whatever reason, against those teams, we couldn’t do it. We couldn’t get the run game going.”

It isn’t just the run game for the Bucs, though. Think back to Jenkins’ explanation of the Saints’ loss to the Bucs in the playoffs two seasons ago. On offense, Tampa Bay ran the ball well. And on defense, Todd Bowles’ unit took the ball away. The Bucs forced four turnovers in that game and finished with a plus-four turnover margin.

In the four regular season losses to New Orleans, Tampa Bay has posted a turnover margin of minus-nine.

That’s obviously not going to get the job done.

The Bucs don’t need to beat the Saints to win the NFC South. They proved that in 2021. However, the team just has to get over the hump against New Orleans this year. The blueprint appears to be there. It’s just about choosing to use it — and then executing it at a high level.