When the Bucs took over first place in the NFC South in Week 14, they also took control of their own playoff destiny. However, they knew that a letdown in Week 15 would potentially cost them both, as they were set to face the 8-5 Chargers while the Falcons would be meeting the 2-11 Raiders on Monday Night Football.

The scenario was simple: A Tampa Bay loss in Los Angeles on Sunday would reopen the door for Atlanta to retake the division lead with a win over Las Vegas.

Bucs WR Mike Evans Photo by: USA Today

Well, the Bucs did their part to make sure that didn’t play out. After falling behind the Chargers 17-10 in the second quarter, they scored the game’s final 30 points in what turned out to be a dominant 40-17 win over the league’s No. 1 scoring defense. Baker Mayfield threw for four touchdowns, while Mike Evans caught two and went off for a season-high 159 yards. Tampa Bay’s defense pitched a second-half shutout, with Lavonte David and Logan Hall finishing with 1.5 sacks each and Jamel Dean hauled in his first interception since Week 2 of the 2022 season.

The win sent the Bucs to 8-6 and kept them atop the NFC South for another week. It also lowered their “Magic Number” to clinch the division down to three with three weeks to play. Todd Bowles and his team are two games above .500 for the first time since they were 2-0, and they’ll play their road finale next Sunday night before closing out the season with two games at home.

The Falcons won’t get any style points for it, but they did go on to beat the Raiders on Monday Night Football by a score of 15-9. With two blocked punts and a blocked extra point, Atlanta’s special teams stole the show while its defense shut down a lifeless Vegas offense. Kirk Cousins was only 11-of-17 for 112 yards, a touchdown and an interception, but despite giving the Raiders a chance to come back late, the Falcons held on for an ugly win. With that, they snapped a four-game losing streak got back to .500 at 7-7 and kept pace with the Bucs.

Here’s an updated look at the NFC South standings through Week 15:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8-6 (2-2 in the NFC South)
Atlanta Falcons 7-7 (4-1 in the NFC South)
New Orleans Saints 5-9 (2-3 in the NFC South)
Carolina Panthers 3-11 (1-3 in the NFC South)

The Bucs remain one game up on the Falcons for first place in the division and still control their own destiny in their quest for a fourth straight NFC South title and a fifth straight playoff appearance. If Tampa Bay can match (or better) Atlanta’s record over the final three games, it’ll keep its run of division championships going and keep Kirk Cousins and his new team out of the playoffs.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles and Falcons HC Raheem Morris – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

In that scenario, the Falcons’ head-to-head sweep of the Bucs wouldn’t matter. And given the advantageous situation Raheem Morris and Co. got themselves into with that sweep and the lead they had on the three-time defending division champs, it would leave the Dirty Birds with yet another “what if” in a history full of them.

Here’s a look at the remaining schedules for the top two contenders in the NFC South:

Week 16: Bucs – at Cowboys (6-8); Falcons – vs. Giants (2-12)
Week 17: Bucs – vs. Panthers (3-11); Falcons – at Commanders (9-5)
Week 18: Bucs – vs. Saints (5-9); Falcons – vs. Panthers (3-11)

The Bucs certainly can’t trust the Giants to handle their business against the Falcons next week. But Tampa Bay just needs to worry about itself and take care of Dallas on Sunday Night Football. A win over the Cowboys at Jerry World would lower the Bucs’ Magic Number to two with two games to play.

That would be a fifth straight win for Bowles’ team, and it would set up a potential clinching scenario when they return home to Raymond James Stadium in Week 17. Wins over the Cowboys and Panthers in the next two weeks paired with a Falcons loss to the Giants (unlikely) or Commanders (more likely) would have the division wrapped up before the New Year.

But the important thing is for the Bucs to keep their playoff mentality going and win out. Do that, and it doesn’t matter what Atlanta does.

Where The Bucs Now Stand In The NFC Playoff Picture

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs don’t only control their own destiny as far as the NFC South goes – they now control their own destiny for the No. 3 seed in the NFC playoffs. We’ll get back to that in a minute.

The Lions’ winning streak finally came to an end in Week 15, as they fell 48-42 to the Bills at home. That was Detroit’s first loss since its Week 2 loss to Tampa Bay, and it opened the door back up for Minnesota in the NFC North conversation.

The Vikings beat the Bears on Monday Night Football, getting to 12-2 themselves. The Lions still hold the division lead and the No. 1 seed via tiebreaker, but the two teams meet again in Week 18. If the Vikings can win out, they’ll win the division, knock the Lions down into the Wild Card picture and be in contention with the Eagles for the first-round bye.

Speaking of the Eagles, they beat the Steelers on Sunday to get to 12-2 as well. They remain in the hunt for that No. 1 seed and the bye that comes with it.

There was a shakeup in the NFC West, and it impacted the Bucs’ positioning. The Rams beat the 49ers on Thursday night and took over the division lead with the Seahawks’ loss to the Packers on Sunday night. Tampa Bay has the tiebreaker edge over Los Angeles, meaning it’s the former in possession of the No. 3 seed with three weeks to play.

The Packers and Commanders both won in Week 15 to keep themselves in the No. 6 and No. 7 seeds, respectively.

Bucs WR Jalen McMillan – Photo by: USA Today

Here’s a look at the NFC Playoff Picture through Week 15:

1. Lions – 12-2 (NFC North leader)
2. Eagles – 12-2 (NFC East leader)
3. Bucs – 8-6 (NFC South leader)
4. Rams – 8-6 (NFC West leader)
5. Vikings – 12-2 (NFC Wild Card No. 1)
6. Packers – 10-4 (NFC Wild Card No. 2)
7. Commanders – 9-5 (NFC Wild Card No. 3)
——–In the Hunt——–
8. Seahawks– 8-6
9. Falcons – 7-7
10. Cardinals – 7-7
11. 49ers – 6-8
12. Cowboys – 6-8

NFL.com currently gives the Bucs an 83% chance to reach the postseason for a fifth consecutive season.

Winners of four straight, Tampa Bay will looking for a fifth consecutive win on Sunday Night Football when it matches up with Dallas. Getting that victory would have Todd Bowles and his team one step closer to another NFC South title, a fifth straight playoff appearance and a home playoff game on Super Wild Card Weekend.