The Bucs will go up against a formidable Bengals offense on Sunday to start the 2026 season. Joe Burrow, Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Mike Gesicki and Andrei Iosivas form a strong playmaking unit that can throw the ball up and down the field.

Last year they were without Burrow for most of the season so take some of these numbers with a grain of salt. With that said, all of the information powering this report comes from the following sites:

Sumer Sports
Fantasy Data Points
NFL Pro (powered by Next Gen Stats)
rbsdm.com

Pewter Report breaks down some of the player matchups here, where this will look more at schematic and tendency matchups.

Bengals Offense Headline Numbers

Overall, Cincinnati is an offense that stays on schedule but struggles to create explosives. Their run game is better than it gets credit for but the Bengals have been reluctant to lean into it. From a personnel standpoint, they don’t get very exotic with two backs or five wide receivers, which allows them to stay in the top third of the league in both 11 (three receivers) and 12 (two tight ends) personnel.

The Bengals on First Down

I would hope the Bucs play light boxes and invite the run on first down. Cincinnati favors the pass on first down and playing Cover 2 with two high safeties should make that a harder proposition for them. The Bucs have a strong defensive front, and they should lean on it to beat the Bengals efficient run game without the need to bring an additional defender in the box.

And Tykee Smith and Antoine Winfield Jr. are quick to trigger downfield and can defend against the Bengals’ mid and wide zone heavy run calls well.

And when the Bengals try to spread things out on first down, Todd Bowles can get to Cover 2 from his exotic pressure looks and unconventional rotations.

In the clip above, the Cardinals matched Cincinnati’s spread empty look with six men on the line. This forced Joe Burrow to pull Mike Gesicki in to attach and run a six-man protection, pulling an eligible out of the play. Post-snap Arizona fell into Cover 2 with just a three-man rush, wasting Gesicki and putting maximum assets into coverage, forcing Burrow to eventually throw the ball away.

Leaning into Cover 2 allows the Bucs to bracket Ja’Marr Chase, who owns a 32% target share on first down. Chase also favors the left side of the field so Jacob Parrish may end up as the most targeted corner in this matchup.

The Bengals on Second Down

Once again, the Bengals struggle most against two high looks with a pole runner through the middle on second down.

In the clip above the Bills ran Cover 6 with a MEG (Man Everywhere He Goes) tag on Ja’Marr Chase at the top of the screen. By running Cover 4 to the passing strength and the middle linebacker getting vertical with the tight end, the Bills were able to make sure there was always a cap on Chase and three defenders to guard against any deep threat. The result is an invitation that Burrow accepts to dump off to the field flat. Rally and tackle held the play to a minimal gain.

Bengals On Third Down

If the Bucs can win on 1st and 2nd down, they can earn their right to play their staple cover-3 on 3rd and medium. And that can look something like this.

Baltimore sets the protection plan and guarantees a one-on-one for their left edge by putting Roquan Smith over the right guard and threatening the blitz with nickel Ar’Darius Washington from outside the right tackle. They then set both of their defensive tackles and their opposite side edge all to the offense’s left. This forces the Bengals into max protect, keeping both their back and their tight end to protect.

Post-snap the Ravens have three-over-two to the field with Washington dropping to the hook, the strong safety breaking to the flat and the outside corner breaking to the deep third. They also have the deep safety shading to their side to fully close the field. All of this funnels Burrow to Chase on the shallow where the Ravens are waiting to rally with three defenders in position to converge.

This is a bread-and-butter concept the Bucs can run to create a one-on-one for Rueben Bain Jr. with Keionte Scott and Josiah Trotter on the line as pass rushing threats and Tykee Smith crashing as the flat defender. All of these leans into each player’s strengths.

Blitzing

Todd Bowles has typically blitzed on early downs in recent years. His goal is to add defenders to the box, put offenses in third-and-long and try to win with four rushers on third down. Against the Bengals, I would love to see him invert this tendency. Joe Burrow likes to target outside the numbers so the Bucs can go light box, mug up their linebackers and vacate the middle of the field pre-snap.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: IMAGN Images via Reuters Connect

From there Bowles can get creative with which four he sends. Then on third down, after he’s bluffed these exotic blitz and sim pressures on the early downs, I would want him to unleash his best blitz calls selectively to keep Burrow and the Bengals offense off balance.