Re-watching Emeka Egbuka’s rookie campaign has been fascinating. From the unsustainably hot start in the first four games to the precipitous fall off in the middle of the season, I started to see some encouraging developments after the bye week, even if his production did technically bottom out. But I was also left with three big questions entering the last quarter of the season.

1. He spent the majority of the season playing without Mike Evans. The future Ring of Honor member returned for weeks 15-18. How would that impact Egbuka’s usage, target share and production.

2. Egbuka was known as a reliable target in college, carrying a high catch rate and making tough grabs. But through most of his rookie season in the NFL he was having trouble reproducing that reliability. Can he improve his finishing?

3. After his hot start against zone coverage, defenses found him struggling to beat press man. Can he find a counterpunch?

Layering these answers on the rest of his season’s worth of work should provide a detailed and thorough understanding of who he is as a player entering his second season in the league.

Bucs WRs Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin Jr. – IMAGN Images

The Impact of Mike Evans’ Return

Two immediate changes occurred to Egbuka when Evans returned to the lineup late in the season. First, Egbuka’s target share and routes run both dropped noticeably. His routes run per game fell from 36 per game in weeks 10 – 14 to 21.5 in weeks 15 – 18, while his target share dropped from 26% to 20% over the same time periods. And while Evans’ return is the most direct causation, Jalen McMillan also returned to the lineup during this period as well. That created a full rotation for the Bucs’ receiving room in an effort to try and keep everyone fresh.

Egbuka’s usage when on the field changed as well. During the third quarter of the season, he lined up outside on 77% of his snaps. Fast forward to Q4 and that number fell to 62%. At the same time, he went from about 10 snaps per game as the single man on 3×1’s in the third quarter of the season to 2.5 in the final four games of the season.

This was a real-time change in usage that showed how the Bucs would prefer to use him versus how they were forced to use him when Evans was gone. He transformed back from a mis-cast X into the true Z/F player that he really is. And with it, despite lower target volume all of his efficiency metrics improved.

Catch Rate – 43% to 53%
Yards/Catch – 12.2 to 14.7
Yards/Route Run – 1.36 to 1.53

Evans’ return opened up opportunities that Egbuka legitimately took advantage of.

With Evans out, defenses would have never lost track of Egbuka like this. Mike came back and made something like this possible (4 over 2 to Mike’s side).

But now Evans is gone. That brings lots of questions for EE entering year two. pic.twitter.com/iLRIIl5A9w

— Josh Queipo (@JoshQueipo_NFL) July 17, 2026

But this was set against a backdrop of an entire offense that was sputtering. Egbuka was put back in his best position to succeed with a struggling offensive scheme and inconsistent operational execution that capped his overall potential.

Finishing Catches

Emeka Egbuka was comped quite often to Chris Godwin as a pre-draft prospect. Among their many similarities was a set of reliable hands. But Egbuka’s hands had been letting him down through much of the season leading up to week 15. From week 5 through week 14 Egbuka ranked 35th among 37 qualifying receivers in catch rate at 46.2%. That’s the 8th percentile. He was also tied for the second most drops among that group (5).

All of this is according to Pro Football Focus. I should note I charted Egbuka with seven drops myself. I guess my grading is harsher. Insert Mad Men meme “Not Great Bob!” here.

But in the last four weeks of 2025, Egbuka’s catch rate rose over 8 points to 54%. He moved to the 11th percentile. That doesn’t seem like a meaningful improvement until you consider that many of his Q4 targets weren’t catchable. His adjusted catch rate over this final stretch was 90% – a full 31 points over his week 5-14 rate of 59%. And importantly, no drops. He also made a couple of difficult grabs for good measure.

Emeka Egbuka vs. Man Coverage

This has been the thread throughout most of the season. Emeka Egbuka wins against zone but struggles against man – especially when he’s jammed at the line. And sad to say things did not change for the 2025 first rounder over the last four games of the season. Aside from a single rep where he caught A.J. Terrell off balance and knocked him to the ground, Egbuka continued to struggle in those situations.

And these struggles weren’t just against the topflight corners of the NFL like earlier in the season when he faced off against Sauce Gardner, Christian Gonzalez and Christian Benford. No, these last four games saw him shut down at times by the likes of Dee Alford and Jason Marshall Jr.

One area I was disappointed in last year with Emeka Egbuka was his physicality at the stem of his routes. No issues with this one though as he ends up putting A.J. Terrell on the ground before making the grab for 23 yards on 3rd and 15. And Terrell got the flag. pic.twitter.com/tfgsCoS4DT

— Josh Queipo (@JoshQueipo_NFL) July 15, 2026

This is against 180-pound Cobee Bryant. https://t.co/XnWIpFiY89 pic.twitter.com/Y0xYTKGT6E

— Josh Queipo (@JoshQueipo_NFL) July 17, 2026

Part of these struggles trace back to his lack of physicality in his routes. Contact frequently knocked him off his path, slowed his pace and generally bothered him throughout this period just as it did all season. What perplexes me is watching this juxtaposed against him as a blocker on perimeter screens. When he is asked to dictate contact there is a real tenacity and strength to his game. Why it shrivels away when he’s running routes is honestly beyond me. But I would argue that his number one goal for this offseason should have been to improve his strength through contact as a route runner.

Ultimately, this was an area of his game he was never able to improve during his rookie season. And it presents a specific hole in his game entering year two that makes him more of a 1a who can feast as a complement to a strong X receiver rather than be the focal point of a passing attack on his own. On crucial third downs defenses can switch to press on him and effectively shut him down, leaving Baker Mayfield to have to go somewhere else. And if you can’t trust a receiver to win in that situation you can’t build your passing attack around him. That’s the difference between a true alpha and a good receiver.

Other Notes

• Emeka Egbuka got open repeatedly over this time period only to not have the ball come his way. This is for a variety of reasons including him being pushed down in progressions because he wasn’t the primary anymore, pressure forcing Baker Mayfield to scramble or go to a check down. When he was targeted, it was often a non-quality target. Seven of his 17 targets were non-catchable, leaving him with just 10 quality targets over four games.

• There was still a noticeable difference in the quality of his in-breaking routes vs his out-breakers. He ran his in-breakers with confidence and precision whereas his out-breakers were plagued by indecisiveness at the stem and an overall sloppiness. My theory is the lack of space throws him off – even from condensed looks.

• I was a bit disappointed watching him run his clearouts. These are routes where he will almost never be targeted on, but it’s important for any receiver tasked with those to run them at full speed to draw coverage and open things up for his teammates. But multiple times I observed him not giving 100% on. Effort is the easiest thing a player can bring to the game.

• The strength he shows as a blocker shows up post-catch consistently. He fights for tough yards and gets the most out of each grab.

• I mentioned it earlier, but his blocking improved down the stretch.

2026 Outlook

This concludes an in-depth look at his rookie season. There’s lots to like and my outlook on Emeka Egbuka is genuinely positive. Playing against a league that runs zone coverage 70-80% of the time, he will have plenty of opportunities to continue to get open and make plays. If he focuses on getting stronger and deploying that strength as a route runner and at the catchpoint there is plenty of extra meat on the bone for him to eat.

Bucs WR Emeka Egbuka and Cardinals DE Josh Sweat – Photo by: USA Today

But the biggest key for him is one that is beyond his control. Can the Bucs find someone to take Evans’ role within the offense. He can’t be replaced in impact – he’s an eventual Hall of Famer. But how he impacts the offensive scheme, and more importantly for Egbuka, how he allowed everyone else to fit into their best roles is almost as important. Jalen McMillan has shown he can win in against man coverage. And Ted Hurst is a prototypical X in size and speed.

Can one, or both of those two allow Egbuka to stay as F/Z, playing off the line and motioning at the snap to get clean releases and take advantage of lesser defenders while not drawing brackets? If so, it could mean Egbuka leads the team in production if not in gravity. If not, we could see another season of frustratingly streaky play.