Betting the Bucs is a new segment that focuses on the gambling lines for each Bucs game during the season. We’ll take a look into different aspects of the game to help make your decision on whether to bet for or against the Bucs. We’ll also take a brief view at the slate of Sunday games around the rest of the league.
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The Line: Bucs +3.5, Over/Under 56
From a game perspective, there’s a lot to worry about with the Bucs here. They could be without two starting offensive linemen as Ali Marpet is still in concussion protocol and Donovan Smith hasn’t practiced all week, and backup A.Q. Shipley unfortunately suffered a career-ending neck injury that has put him on IR. On the other side of the ball, Jamel Dean won’t be playing, thus putting Ross Cockrell into an important situation. With the Bucs’ propensity to play soft zone coverage, you’re just begging for Patrick Mahomes to pick you apart in different ways. The Bucs are going to have a tough time guarding Travis Kelce as well, and since Tampa Bay’s defense hasn’t started showing up until the second half, there will be plenty of points out of the gate.
What’s working in the Bucs favor is that Tom Brady and the rest of the offense tends to step it up after losing the week before. They’ve scored 31, 38 and 46 points respectively in games following a loss. Even when the offense has struggled, they still find a way to get on the board. Plus the Chiefs defense is definitely not as tough as the Rams defense that they just faced, so scoring 30 points should not be so difficult to do.
The over has hit in four out of the last five Bucs’ games, including last week. Raymond James Stadium has been kind to putting on an offensive show, as the over has hit in Tampa in nine out of 11 games. On the flip side, the Chiefs are 6-2 over their last eight games on the road, while the Bucs have lost their last two against the spread at home. I’m double-dipping in this one, taking the favorite and the over in a game that should see a lot of scoring.
The Pick: Chiefs -3.5, Over 56
It wasn’t my best last week as I went 2-3 on my picks. I know, I’m just as shocked as you are. With that said, I’ve nailed my last four picks for Bucs games, giving me a good overall record of 19-14-1. Let’s get back on the winning track this week.
Raiders -3 at Falcons
Both teams can be unpredictable at times, but the Raiders look like they’re heading in the right direction. If they can hang with the Chiefs, they should be able to win by more than a field goal against a Falcons teams that got pummeled by Taysom Hill the week before.
Cardinals -1.5 at Patriots
I have more confidence in Kyler Murray doing enough to get his team over the hump than what Cam Newton can do with the Patriots offense. Though it won’t be easy, Arizona goes on top.
Giants -6.5 at Bengals
The Giants have been great to bet on as underdogs recently, but now they find themselves in the precarious position of being the favorite. It was absolutely horrible to see what happened to Joe Burrow last week, and the Bengals have named Brandon Allen as his replacement in this game. Their offense will struggle regardless of who it is, giving the Giants the victory by more than a touchdown.
Chargers-Bills Over 53
The call for this game is simple enough. Los Angeles keeps hitting the over in each game so, I’m going to keep riding that train until it stops. I don’t think this is the week it’s in jeopardy either. The Bills have a solid defense, but their offense likes to air it out with Josh Allen as well.
Dolphins-Jets Over 44.5
It’s such a low number, and yet the potential for a lot of points are very high. It’s not looking like Tua is going to play, which actually helps the cause throwing Fitz Magic in there. The Dolphins offense has run much better with him under center. Over the last two games the Jets have looked like a real football team now that all their receivers are healthy. Sam Darnold is back at quarterback this week so that could be a question mark, but the Jets defense still can’t stop anyone, and it will be a chance for Darnold to showcase himself with the Jets’ top players at his disposal.