Betting The Bucs is a weekly segment that focuses on the gambling lines for each Tampa Bay game during the season. We’ll take a look into different aspects of the game to help you make your decision on whether to bet for or against the Bucs. We’ll also break down various prop bets to take before you watch on Sunday.

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The Line: Bucs -12, Over/Under 47

Entering with a 5-1 record should have the Bucs feeling pretty good about themselves at the start of the season. They’ve done well, but they haven’t exactly been winning blowouts, as they only have a 2-4 record against the spread. I’m not too keen on picking Tampa Bay to cover this week, however, the two covers the Bucs accomplished came at home and against, shall we say, lesser opponents in the Falcons and Dolphins. That’s the case again when they play the Bears. So when you factor in all of that, the Bucs winning by two touchdowns sounds better than the initial reaction.

Playing without Antonio Brown doesn’t help, but we already know they can overcome that with all of their other skilled receivers. This also isn’t the same Bears defense from a couple seasons ago, so the Bucs will be able to push the ball down the field. It’s just a matter of how quickly they can do it. Tampa Bay’s defense should have their best game of the season against a Bears’ offense at the bottom of the league. The Bucs haven’t had a problem jumping out to big leads, but keeping that same pace for four quarters is where they’ll need to improve.

The Pick: Bucs -12

Prop Bets:

Bucs 1H -7 (+100)

I’m still in the honeymoon phase with this Bucs first half pick. It hits every single time I’ve taken it, so I will continue to ride it until I’m proven wrong. To quote the hit song from Gene McFadden and John Whitehead “Ain’t No Stoppin’ Us Now.” It’s not just that the Bucs have done well in the first half, it’s the value of +100 that really makes this a great bet.

Longest TD U 39.5 Yards (-103)

Teams will continue to play zone against the Bucs’ offense because they know they’ll get beat in man. The Bucs have shown no issues with taking intermediate plays to get to the end zone. We also know that the Bucs defense builds their whole unit around not allowing the big play. These are once again good odds for a very possible win.

Bucs U 1.5 FGs (+110)

Ryan Succop has had just one game in which he’s hit more than one field goal in a game this season. There’s been another two games where he hasn’t even attempted a field goal. It’s all about touchdowns for the Bucs.

Tom Brady Over 2.5 Touchdown Passes (+127)

He’s two away from getting to 600 career touchdown passes, so you know he’ll hit it because he’s Tom Brady. The thing is, the GOAT has been on fire playing at home this season. In three home games this year, his touchdown throws have gone five, four and five again. You’re asking him to get three now with the extra motivation of 600 in his career? We might see this hit in the first half.

Leonard Fournette Over 3.5 Receptions (-149)

All-season Lenny has done just about everything in the Bucs offense. He’s caught at least four passes in four of the Bucs’ six games, including each one at home. Just let Lenny continue this groove that he’s in.

Mike Evans Over 4.5 Receptions (-135)

I think we’re looking at your typical bounce-back-from-a-quiet-game type of outing for Evans this week. Add in that Brown is out this week, and that leaves Evans and Chris Godwin as the top targets. Evans is in a good spot for a solid afternoon.

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About the Author: Matt Matera

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8 months ago

Nice picks Matt! Hope you “put your money where your mouth is”. 6-1 on the day should make you some good cash.