Betting the Bucs is a new segment that focuses on the gambling lines for each Bucs game during the season. We’ll take a look into different aspects of the game to help make your decision on whether to bet for or against the Bucs. We’ll also take a brief view at the slate of Sunday games around the rest of the league.
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The Line: Bucs -4.5, Over/Under 50.5
The great Andre 3000 from the rap duo OutKast once said “You can plan a pretty picnic but you can’t predict the weather.” And that’s exactly the scenario we find ourselves in for this highly anticipated match-up of Bucs vs. Saints with first place in the NFC South up for grabs.
On a normal day, 50.5 is quite reachable for these teams where the over has hit two out of the previous three times at Raymond James Stadium this season and both teams reached that mark a week ago. But as Greg Auman of The Athletic pointed out, there are supposed to be very strong winds on Sunday night with a chance of rain.
Weather for Sunday night in Tampa and Bucs-Saints? Most likely impact from approaching Eta is wind (14 mph forecasted) and potential rain (35 percent chance). https://t.co/41bRcDRlaz
A lot of the numbers say you should take the Bucs in this one. The Saints are 1-5 ATS in their last six and the over has hit in five straight. The Bucs have gone over in 17 of their last 22 games, and overall have played much better at home, not to mention that Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown are playing in this game. To go even further, the over has hit in five of the last six games between these two teams.
But outside of the wind factor, the main stat I’m looking at is this: The Bucs are 1-4 ATS facing New Orleans, and that includes the Tampa Bay’s 34-23 loss in Week 1. Between the heavy winds, two tough defenses and the fact that it’s a rivalry game, this one’s going to be a slugfest. Drew Brees doesn’t throw the ball far down field, so there won’t be a ton of explosive plays because of the weather. Tampa Bay just seems to always have problems with the Saints. It never comes easy. I see the Bucs winning, but it will sure be close, so we’re going with two picks on this line!
The Pick: Saints +4.5, Under 50.5
I’m 9-7-1 since starting this weekly segment after going 2-3 a week ago. Time to pick up the slack this week. Let’s see what we got for the rest of the NFL.
Bear-Titans Under 47
The Titans are a solid team that likes to run the football, but has struggled offensively the past two weeks. The Bears have one of the best defenses in football and haven’t had an offense in what seems like a decade.
Giants +2.5 at Washington
The Giants have played almost every game of their season to one possession, and that includes the Bucs last week. They’ll do the same here, and have a solid chance to win.
Raiders-Chargers Over 53
The Raiders didn’t hit the over last week with bad weather, but overall both teams just keep lighting up the scoreboard. Why change what keeps consistently hitting?
Steelers -14.5 at Cowboys
I don’t think the Cowboys even reach 14 points with their fourth quarterback on the season. Meanwhile they have one of the worst defenses in football. Pittsburgh keeps their undefeated streak going while covering easily.
Cardinals -4.5 vs. Dolphins
The Dolphins had an upset win last week, but it wasn’t because of Tua. Arizona comes in and scores all over the Dolphin defense, while pulling away without many issues.