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INTRO: I grew up reading Sports Illustrated and became a fan of lead NFL writer Peter King, and would religiously read his MMQB column on SI.com. Part of his MMQB column was a segment called 10 Things I Think I Think, and with so many thoughts about the Bucs offseason brewing in my head – more than just five thoughts for an SR’s FAB 5 – I decided to switch up this week’s format as an ode to King and come up with 10 Things I Think I Think About The Bucs Offseason prior to next week’s NFL Draft.

No SR’s FAB 5 next week because we’ll be knee deep in Bucs draft coverage, but be sure to read my SR’s Bucs Draft Insider column next Tuesday on PewterReport.com instead. After back-to-back SR’s FAB 5 columns heavy on draft content, featuring Akheem Mesidor and Jacob Rodriguez over the last two weeks, I decided to take a break from all the draft talk and zero in on what has been accomplished in Tampa Bay this offseason – and what else needs to happen for the Bucs to rebound in 2026. Enjoy!

A reminder, our final Pewter Report 2026 7-Round Bucs Mock Draft comes out at noon ET on Sunday, April 19 on PewterReport.com – don’t miss it, and watch the corresponding Final Mock Draft Show podcast that Josh Queipo and I will be hosting on our PewterReportTV YouTube channel on Sunday at noon ET as well.

1. I Think The Bucs Will Win The NFC South Again In 2026

The popular saying in football is that the game is not so much about the X’s and the O’s as it is about the Jimmys and the Joes. While coaching matters and scheme is important, teams need talent to win over the course of a season. A quick look around the NFC South shows that the Bucs still have the most talented roster in the division heading into the 2026 NFL Draft and I’m not sure that’s going to change next week as each team adds a few new starters out of the college ranks.

Bucs LT Tristan Wirfs and QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Tampa Bay has the best, most accomplished quarterback in the NFC South in Baker Mayfield and he plays behind the best offensive line in the division. That alone gives the Bucs an edge in the NFC South because none of the other teams in the division have a dominant defense that can neutralize Tampa Bay’s offense when healthy and at full strength.

And say what you want about Todd Bowles, is there a dynamite coach in the division that is head and shoulders better right now? We’ll see what the future holds for Kellen Moore in New Orleans, who was beginning to turn the Saints around at the end of the season with rookie quarterback Tyler Shough.

But Dave Canales has not proven to be a lethal game day strategist in Carolina the way Sean Payton was in New Orleans years ago, and he just turned the play-calling duties over to offensive coordinator and good friend Brad Idzik. And I don’t buy the hype about Kevin Stefanski, and I don’t see how Atlanta got any better this offseason, especially when the biggest addition was backup QB Tua Tagovailoa.

If the Bucs don’t rebound and reclaim the division title in 2026, it will be because of injuries (again) and Bowles holding this team back with game day coaching gaffes either as the defensive play-caller or in the realm of game management. It won’t be because of a lack of talent, as I’m expecting reinforcements to arrive on defense in next week’s draft.

2. I Think Zac Robinson’s Offense Will Click In Tampa Bay

New offensive coordinator Zac Robinson arrives in Tampa Bay and has a better quarterback, a better offensive line and a better receiving corps (even without Mike Evans) to work with than he did in Atlanta. And the team’s offensive players have already played in a very similar scheme in Liam Coen’s offense in 2024, as both Coen and Robinson, who are best friends, have deep roots in Sean McVay’s Rams offensive scheme. Those elements should help Robinson and the offense hit the ground running in 2026.

Bucs OC Zac Robinson – Photo by IMAGN Images – Brett Davis

But I don’t just believe that Robinson’s offense will click in Tampa Bay because of what general manager Jason Licht and head coach Todd Bowles told me. I believe it because of what Coen told me at the NFL Annual Meeting out in Phoenix during our conversations. Despite being the head coach in Jacksonville, Coen watched a lot of Bucs games on tape last year because of his strong affinity for Baker Mayfield and the assistant coaches he hired, as well as the relationships he established with offensive players during the 2024 season.

Coen told me that Robinson came up to Jacksonville for a weekend to play golf, hang out, and of course talk Bucs football. The fact that Coen could share all of his insight about the 2024 season with Robinson – as well as what he saw on tape in 2025 – and the strengths and weaknesses of the Bucs offensive players is invaluable. That should serve as a cheat code and help jumpstart the Robinson play-calling era in Tampa Bay.

The Bucs averaged close to 30 points per game in 2024 and had a top 5 scoring offense and a top 5 rushing attack. That’s the expectation for the 2026 offense under Robinson, and if the unit remains healthy, I believe that’s totally doable. Robinson has the play-calling experience that Josh Grizzard lacked, and his scheme will be closer to Coen’s in both theory and execution.

3. I Think Baker Mayfield Is Going To Have A Tremendous Contract Year

Baker Mayfield enters a contract year in 2026, and I don’t think that will faze him one bit. At age 31, Mayfield is used to handling pressure by now. He was the first overall pick in 2018 and went to Cleveland as a Heisman Trophy winner. Mayfield signed a one-year, prove-it deal with Tampa Bay in 2023 and exceled. Then he signed a three-year, $100 million extension and lived up to that contract rather than wilting from the pressure of such a deal. Mayfield is already in line to get a new deal worth $50 million per season. If he has a great season, that number could climb past $55 million per year.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

As long as Mayfield is healthy – and having a healthy offensive line in front of him is important – I could see him put up similar numbers to his record-breaking 2024 season under Liam Coen with Zac Robinson now in charge. I think Robinson will have Mayfield get back to more short, rhythmic throws that led to his franchise-best 71.4% completion percentage in 2024, while throwing for career highs in touchdowns (41) and yards (4,500).

What made Mayfield really successful that year was having a strong running game to lean on and use play-action off of. Josh Grizzard leaned too heavily on gap scheme blocking last year and the Bucs’ run game became too predictable during the second half of the season as a result. The fact that Bucky Irving missed about half the season and the offensive line was a carousel of injuries didn’t help, either.

Expect Robinson to diversify Tampa Bay’s rushing attack in 2026 with more zone runs so it becomes less predictable. If the run game improves it will set up Mayfield to convert fewer third-and-long downs, which will help his completion percentage and result in longer drives that hopefully end in touchdowns rather than field goals.

For the first time, Robinson won’t have a 6-foot-5 receiver in the lower red zone to get some cheap, easy touchdowns on fade passes, though. He had 6-foot-4 receiver Drake London for two years in Atlanta, as well as 6-foot-6 receiving tight end Kyle Pitts, to use near the end zone, and won’t have the 6-foot-5 Mike Evans at his disposal. But Robinson will have the entire offseason to scheme how to help Mayfield overcome that this year and come up with some lower red zone solutions.

4. I Think Kenneth Gainwell Is A Better Fit In Tampa Bay Than Rachaad White

I think it’s a good thing that Rachaad White wanted out of Tampa Bay so badly because the Bucs might not have re-signed him even if he was open to returning. Just look at the two-year, $14 million deal the team gave to Kenneth Gainwell, while White had to settle for a one-year, $2 million deal with Washington.

Bucs RB Kenneth Gainwell – Photo by: IMAGN Images – Barry Reeger

The reason why the Bucs really pursued Gainwell and gave him such a lucrative deal is that the team feels he’s a better back than White because White wasn’t going to get that contract in Tampa Bay. Gainwell is actually a slightly better receiver than White is because he has the speed and quickness to run routes other than just screens and wheel routes.

While he doesn’t have White’s 6-foot-1, 220-pound size, Gainwell has the technique and tenacity to be a good pass protector on third downs and actually had a better pass pro grade per Pro Football Focus than White did last year. And Gainwell brings more juice as a runner. He’s faster through the hole, quicker with his cuts and more elusive than White is on the second level.

Zac Robinson knows how to run the ball – just look at what the Falcons were able to achieve in his two seasons there with a pair of top 10 finishes in the league. Robinson wants to diversify the Bucs ground game and incorporate more outside zone runs, which fits Gainwell’s skillset perfectly. He has great vision and cutback ability, which is necessary to be successful as a wide zone runner. White’s running style was too hesitant at times and he doesn’t have the ability to cut on a dime and reverse field into a backside hole like Gainwell does. That’s part of the reason why the Bucs didn’t run as much zone as they could’ve in.

5. I Think The Bucs WR Corps Will Be Fine Without Mike Evans

Don’t get the headline twisted – I didn’t say the Bucs WR corps will be “great” without Mike Evans, I just said “fine.” The Bucs will miss Evans this year, especially on downfield shots with him coming up with 50-50 balls more than half the time, as well as fade passes in the end zone from the lower red zone. Tampa Bay doesn’t have a 6-foot-5 receiver who is capable of winning in those situations like Evans could.

Bucs WRs Jalen McMillan and Chris Godwin Jr. – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

But what the Bucs do have is three really good, starting-caliber wide receivers in Emeka Egbuka, last year’s first-round pick, Jalen McMillan and Chris Godwin Jr., whom the team believes is back to being “old CG” now that he’s two years removed from his devastating ankle injury. All three are 6-foot-1 and are ideal No. 2 receivers, but I’m not sure any of them can be a true alpha receiver.

But what I do think is that the sum of these parts can produce well over 2,000 receiving yards – even if the Bucs don’t have a 1,000-yard receiver this year. Baker Mayfield doesn’t like to force the ball to any particular receiver and is perfectly with throwing to the open one. That usually leads to completions and avoids interceptions. The fact that Godwin, Egbuka and McMillan are void of ego and are all team players makes spreading the workload around and sharing the ball easy in Tampa Bay.

Throw in Tez Johnson, a unique playmaker who had five touchdowns in spot duty as a rookie, and the Bucs have four legit weapons at wide receiver. There’s a chance the team could add another true X receiver in the draft to replace Evans as a split end, but even the Bucs don’t, McMillan could be used in that role this season as a stopgap until the team secures a better option in 2027.

Keep in mind that the Falcons were 5-2 down the stretch last year, including a 3-2 record without London that featured wins over Tampa Bay and the LA Rams, as well as Atlanta sweeping the Saints and beating the Cardinals. Robinson had some experience navigating without a big X receiver last year, so that should help him overcome not having Evans to work with this season.

6. I Think The Bucs’ Attitude Adjustment On Defense Was Absolutely Necessary

The Bucs defense needed an upgrade in talent and attitude this offseason. While the unit’s talent was incrementally upgraded from a depth standpoint this offseason, general manager Jason Licht needs to find a couple of starters – and stars – in this year’s draft, primarily at inside and outside linebacker to further upgrade the talent.

Bucs DT A’Shawn Robinson – Photo by: IMAGN Images – Jim Dedmon

But the defense needs more than just better players. An attitude adjustment was necessary as the unit has simply been too soft over the last two seasons. Tampa Bay has struggled to stop the run at times and struggled rush the passer on a more regular basis. There has been a lack of accountability on defense because there has not been that fire-starter on the unit that this team has had in previous Super Bowl seasons.

In 2002, it was Warren Sapp, who ruled the locker room with an iron fist and gave the Bucs defense a badass identity. In 2020, it was the combination of Ndamukong Suh and Jason Pierre-Paul along the defensive line that made Tampa Bay’s defense not only formidable, but feared. The addition of badasses like A’Shawn Robinson and Al-Quadin Muhammad is a step in that direction, though it should be noted that neither player is in the class of Sapp, Suh or JPP.

But this defense has been missing a presence in the huddle that holds teammates accountable. The defense has had enough rah-rah leaders and lead-by-example guys over the years. What it has lacked is leadership with a mean, nasty edge, and credit the Bucs for leaning into players with those traits. Robinson’s bad ass mentality will resonate with safety Tykee Smith, who is a leader on the rise who plays with an edge.

7. I Think Jason Licht Will Draft The Right Edge Rusher This Year

There was a time when Jason Licht couldn’t draft a running back to save his life. Charles Sims and Ke’Shawn Vaughn did little in Tampa Bay as a pair of third-round picks. Jeremy McNichols was a fifth-round bust. Ronald Jones II had one good year as a second-round pick, and thankfully that came in 2020, but he was quickly out of Tampa Bay – and the NFL – shortly thereafter.

Miami edge rusher Akheem Mesidor – Photo by IMAGN Images – Jerome Miron

But Licht kept taking swings at the position and eventually found a hit with Rachaad White in the third round in 2022. Then he signed Sean Tucker as an undrafted free agent in 2023 before drafting Bucky Irving, who was a 1,000-yard rusher as a rookie, in the fourth round in 2024. Licht has had some notable misses at edge rusher – Noah Spence, Joe Tryon-Shoyinka and Chris Braswell – but I think this year is when he hits on a good one.

Actually, he’s already hit on a good one in Yaya Diaby, a former third-round pick who has been in the top 10 in the league in QB pressures over the last two seasons. I also think David Walker, last year’s fourth-rounder, will turn into a hit. But Licht will succeed in drafting another very capable pass rushing edge this year.

The team is focusing on the right players – guys like Miami’s Akheem Mesidor, UCF’s Malachi Lawrence, Oklahoma’s R Mason Thomas, Illinois’ Gabe Jacas – and as long as Tampa Bay comes away with one of those pass rushers by the end of Day 2, I’ll feel pretty good about the outside linebacker room in 2026, especially with the addition of veteran Al-Quadin Muhammad, who had 11 sacks last year in Detroit.

If the rookie pass rusher comes through with five or six sacks in his first year in Tampa Bay, if Walker comes on as expected, and if Diaby has between 8-12 sacks in his contract year, an area that has been Licht’s biggest weakness will have a sudden turnaround just like the team’s fortunes at running back quickly did.

8. I Think The Bucs Will Address Cornerback After The Draft

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bucs were super stealthy and drafted a cornerback in the first two rounds this year – even though they have hardly investigated the position from a public standpoint with scant interest via official 30 visits and formal interviews at the NFL Scouting Combine. Cornerback remains a big need with just three starting-caliber players in Zyon McCollum, Jacob Parrish and Benjamin Morrison.

Dolphins CB Rasul Douglas – Photo by: IMAGN Images – Kirby Lee

And McCollum and Morrison enter 2026 with big question marks. McCollum’s play nose-dived after he signed a lucrative contract extension, and Morrison missed seven games with hamstring injuries that first flared up in training camp and caused him to miss the entire preseason. Cornerbacks have a history of getting dinged and missing playing time in Tampa Bay, so finding another quality cornerback – or two – who can step in and competently start is a must.

Yet there is a chance that the Bucs could continue to prioritize the front seven on defense through the draft and potentially not draft a cornerback until maybe Day 3 for depth – or skip the position at all. If that happens, the lack of perceived interest in cornerbacks in the draft this offseason would ring true, and it would force the Bucs to address it after the draft in free agency.

That might not be a bad thing, as getting a veteran cornerback with starting experience would be preferred over relying on a rookie cornerback to fill the CB4 spot on the depth chart. As it stands, Morrison only played in 10 games last year, so he’s not even truly a veteran yet. Jason Licht has hinted that the cornerback position might be addressed after the draft where some veterans could be released, and I think that is what Tampa Bay is planning on happening. The team is keeping tabs on Rasul Douglas and Martin Emerson, and those are two names to keep an eye on after the draft.

9. I Think The Depth Added This Year Will Help The Bucs Avoid Losing Streaks

The Bucs have a dubious distinction of losing at least three games in a row in each of Todd Bowles’ seasons as head coach dating back to 2022. In fact, Tampa Bay has lost four straight games in each of the last three seasons, which is embarrassing and has prevented the Bucs from elevating into the upper echelon of the NFC.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and Bucs ILB Christian Rozeboom – Photo by: IMAGN – Bob Donnan

A big part of the reason for those losing streaks has been untimely injuries to key starters. And the depth that the Bucs have had in those seasons has proved to be inadequate. I think that’s been a big focus this offseason – improving the roster from the bottom up and upgrading the reserves at several positions like inside linebacker with Christian Rozeboom, outside linebacker with Al-Quadin Muhammad, defensive tackle with A’Shawn Robinson and Rakeem Nunez-Roches and offensive tackle with Justin Skule.

In 2001 the Bucs went to Philadelphia to play the Eagles in the Wild Card playoffs with the likes of Warren Sapp, Derrick Brooks, Ronde Barber, John Lynch, Simeon Rice, Mike Alstott, Brad Johnson and Keyshawn Johnson – and got their ass kicked, 31-9. Yet Tampa Bay beat Philly the next year in the NFC Championship Game, 31-15, with all of those same legends and went on to win Super Bowl XXXVII.

So what was the difference? Jon Gruden came in and upgraded the Bucs depth in 2002. He replaced “C” and “D” players with “B” players so that the Eagles could no longer exploit them in mismatches as they had in previous years.

I think that’s been Jason Licht’s and Todd Bowles’ approach this offseason, and it will be interesting to see if it works in 2026. If the Bucs can successfully avoid another three- or four-game losing streak because of better depth, that will be the clear indicator that their offseason strategy was successful.

10. Special Teams Coordinator Danny Smith Could Give The Bucs An Extra Win

Tampa Bay’s special teams were a liability last year under Thomas McGaughey, and a blocked punt returned for a touchdown by Philadelphia cost the Bucs that game in Week 4. Todd Bowles should have fired McGaughey before the end of the season as he was incompetent and the special teams unit suffered several blocked punts and field goals throughout the year, and couldn’t effectively cover kickoffs, either.

Bucs ST Coordinator Danny Smith – Photo by IMAGN Images – Brian Fluharty

Long-time Pittsburgh special teams coordinator Danny Smith comes to the Bucs as McGaughey’s replacement and he could be an absolute game-changer. Known as a great special teams strategist, I expect the Bucs coverage units to be better and for the return units to also take a step forward. Despite being 72, Smith coaches with a ton of energy, and that’s been a big theme in the coaching changes that have occurred in Tampa Bay.

At first glance, I like the coaching changes that Todd Bowles made. I think having younger secondary coaches that were already on the staff in Tim Atkins (safeties) and Rashad Johnson (cornerbacks) will bring some more energy, and new defensive tackles coach Marcus West is known for having an energetic and enthusiastic coaching style.

But Smith may give them a run for their money in the energy department despite his advanced age. My expectation is that Smith turns Tampa Bay’s special teams from a team weakness into a team strength. And instead of special teams costing the Bucs a win or two, his expertise can actually help the Bucs swing that into an extra win or two this season.

For a Bucs team that underachieved in 2025 and finished with a disappointing 8-9 record, a one-to-two win swing could be the difference between Tampa Bay winning the division and making the playoffs again in 2026.

Pewter Report Final Bucs Mock Draft + Final Mock Draft Show – Sunday At Noon ET

Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds and Josh Queipo will debut the fifth and final Pewter Report 2026 7-Round Bucs Mock Draft of the year on Sunday at 12:00 p.m. ET – sponsored by Jorgensen Law P.A. – on PewterReport.com.

Reynolds and Queipo will host a special Bucs Mock Draft 5.0 Show podcast which takes place following the release of Pewter Report’s fifth Bucs Mock Draft of the offseason to answer your questions and get your reactions. The show will be featured on the PewterReportTV YouTube channel and also streamed live on our @PewterReport X and Facebook channels. Join us!

Pewter Report’s 3-Day LIVE Draft Show Starts Thursday Night At 7pm ET

The annual Pewter Report Draft Show returns for the 2026 NFL Draft! Pewter Report’s three-day live-streaming coverage of the Bucs draft happens on the PewterReportTV YouTube channel and is the best way for fans to follow Tampa Bay’s draft.

The Pewter Report LIVE Draft Show is presented by PrizePicks daily fantasy gaming, and kicks off at 7:00 p.m. ET on Thursday, April 23 – one hour before the official start of the 2026 NFL Draft.

Hosts Scott Reynolds and Matt Matera will be broadcasting live all three days from the Bucs’ team headquarters at the AdventHealth Training Center. Other members of the Pewter Report staff, including Adam Slivon, Bailey Adams and Josh Queipo, will also be making on-air appearances to offer up their insight and analysis as the Bucs make their selections.

The PR staff will also be interacting with Bucs fans and answering questions in nearly 20 hours of coverage over three days.

Sign up for PrizePicks with code: HMA and get $50 in lineups instantly when you play your first $5+ lineup by clicking HERE.

Pewter Report 2026 LIVE Draft Show Schedule On The PewterReportTV YouTube Channel

Thursday, April 23 – 7:00 p.m. ET (picks begin at 8:00 p.m. ET)
Friday, April 24 – 6:00 p.m. ET (picks begins at 7:00 p.m. ET)
Saturday, April 25 – 11:00 a.m. ET (picks begins at noon ET)

Click here to watch Day 1 of the Pewter Report LIVE Draft Show on the PewterReportTV YouTube channel.