inebackers aren’t the sole reason the team is 27th in pass defense
lol. No one said they were the sole reason. Fire's post is literally "much of that," which is to say NOT sole reason.
Exactly right. Stay away at all costs. If he could be had in rounds 5-7, then maybe I would consider it but him being a 1st or 2nd is laughable."
University of Tennessee cornerback Jermod McCoy missed all of last season with a torn ACL in his right knee. He could miss “extensive” time in 2026 as a rookie in the NFL.
Tom Pelissero of NFL Media reports that team medical staffs are concerned McCoy could need another surgery to repair a bone plug in McCoy’s knee. The bone plug was used to repair a cartilage defect."
LB coverage can be attributed to much of that
I think this point is exaggerated somewhat. Did the linebackers get worked in coverage? Hell yeah. But there were two them on the field and five secondary players. The linebackers aren’t the sole reason the team is 27th in pass defense.
I like the CB’s fine. I would put the majority of that ranking on the scheme more than them specifically, but if a top CB falls (probably won’t) in your lap, the organization should at least discuss it.
Ok yeah fair points, agreed
LB coverage can be attributed to much of that
I think this point is exaggerated somewhat. Did the linebackers get worked in coverage? Hell yeah. But there were two them on the field and five secondary players. The linebackers aren’t the sole reason the team is 27th in pass defense.
I like the CB’s fine. I would put the majority of that ranking on the scheme more than them specifically, but if a top CB falls (probably won’t) in your lap, the organization should at least discuss it.
Ok yeah fair points, agreed
Yes definitely not the "sole" reason, but you can easily see sign of the impact of the poor LB play. For example, in the first Falcons game the Falcons top receivers are Robinson and Pitts with Robinson infamously blowing past SVD flat for a 50 yrd TD. This was their RECEIVING stats against the Bucs:
ROBINSON - 6 rec on 7 TGTS for 100 yds and a TD
PITTS - 7 rec on 8 TGTS for 59 yards
So together they are 53% of the passing yards given up by the Bucs and 77% of the YAC.
The very next week, against the Vikings, London. is the top receiver fot the Falcons and Robinson only has 3 rec on 5 TGTS for 25 yards. Pitts is 4 reception s on 5 TGTS for 37 yards. They are only 45% of the passing yards and only 47% of the YAC (28 versus 144 against the Bucs)
I already did the Lions game and the Eagles game. The point is that you can see when you match up the games versus the Bucs to the other game that followed (in this example) the opponents are picking on the Buccaneers weak LB unit.
Some of Kyle Pitts biggest games of 2025 are against the Bucs. Each of those games is followed by a drop in production (against the Vikings and the cardinals). The other team that he has similar success agains is the Commanders . . . a WORSE defense than the Bucs (Passing yards).
Same thing with Robinson receptions. His top receptions and TARGETS are the Bucs and Commanders. And in the second Bucs game they clearly feed him the ball through the air (11 TARGETS)
That pattern exists throughout the season and across multiple teams. LVD had a 45 PFF coverage grade, 69th out of 88 LBs. SVD had a 30.5 PFF coverage grade. 84th out of 88.
That pattern exists throughout the season and across multiple teams.
In week two the Bucs play the Texans in a defensive battle on national television. The Texans #2 and #3 receiver in the game are their RBS, Marks and Chubb. The thing that stands out is that together they have 68 YAC from their receptions.
That stands out because in the week before against the Rams they have zero receptions and zero YAC. And in the game after they have 4 combined receptions but for only 11 YAC
AGAIN . . you can see these types of stats across the season where the Bucs have the outlier bad performance against RBs and TEs.
Go to the end of the season and you will see Miami Tight End Dulich have his top targets and only TD . . . against the Bucs
AGAIN . . you can see these types of stats across the season where the Bucs have the outlier bad performance against RBs and TEs.
In the Lions game the Bucs give up an astounding 124 YAC to the Lions RBs and TEs
In the week prior those same Lions players (Gibbs, Montgomery and Wright) only have 1 reception for 6 YAC against the Chiefs
In the next game after (week 9) those same 3 have 40 YAC against the Vikings
Over and over and over .. .
Been out of pocket and haven’t had time to indulge in my preferred distraction, during one of my favorite times of the year.1. The Bucs Will Trade Down in the First Round
Jason Licht will likely opt to trade down from their current first-round position. Picking lower in the round provides more flexibility; missing on a pick in the 20s is less impactful than a top-10 miss. Licht prefers the safety of a mid-to-late first-round pick over the pressure of a top-10 selection.
2. Sonny Styles Will Spark a Long Wait for Off-Ball Linebackers
Once Sonny Styles is drafted early—likely between picks 3 and 8—there may be a significant gap before another off-ball linebacker is selected. Expect the next off-ball linebacker, potentially CJ Allen or Jacob Rodriguez, to come off the board around picks 23-28.
3. One of the Top 3 Edge Players Will Fall Out of the First Round
Whether it’s concerns about Rueben Bain Jr.’s past, questions surrounding Akheem Mesidor’s age or health, or worries that Keldric Faulk’s dip in production foreshadows future issues, at least one of these edge rushers will likely slip into the second round. Last year, we saw Donovan Ezeiruaku drop to 44th and Mike Green to 59th; history could repeat itself.
4. Oregon Tight End Kenyon Sadiq Could Slip to the 2nd Round
Despite being viewed as the most talented tight end in this draft class, Sadiq’s overall size and strength don’t match up to top tight ends from previous years like Colston Loveland, Tyler Warren, or Brock Bowers. While he’s the best in this class, I see him more as a second-round talent and wouldn’t be surprised if he falls out of the first round next Thursday.
5. Darrell Jackson Jr. Won’t Last Past the 2nd Round
Many fans and mock drafts have Jackson projected to go in the 3rd or 4th rounds, but I don’t see him lasting that long. He’s a big man with athletic feet, capable of clogging running lanes and surprising linemen with his quick first step. Similar to how the Rams selected Braden Fiske at 39th overall in 2024, Jackson will likely go earlier than expected.
6. Four Wide Receivers Will Be Drafted in the First Round
Although there are 5 to 7 receivers projected to go in the first round, I believe only four will be selected in the first 32 picks. While receivers have been flying off the board in recent drafts, I think this year’s need for other positions will take precedence, and the top-tier talent at wide receiver isn’t as elite as in previous years. Carnell Tate stands out, but there are concerns surrounding others like Makai Lemon, Jordyn Tyson, and Densel Boston.
7. Penn State Quarterback Drew Allar Will Be Drafted by the 5th Round
Once considered a potential top-5 pick during the 2024 and early 2025 college seasons, Allar has all the intangibles—size, arm strength, accuracy, and running ability. He just needs to put it all together. Given his potential, I don’t see him slipping past the 5th round.
8. The Bucs Will Make Two Trades During the Draft
I anticipate the Bucs will trade down in the first round and then make another move in the middle rounds—3, 4, or 5—to secure a player they’re targeting. Unlike recent drafts, Licht is likely to be more active in moving around this year.
Whatever happens, I can’t wait to see how it all unfolds.
i Like your analysis & emphasis on positions of need, probably because it aligns with my own thoughts. Until today, I haven’t run many draft sims, and am seeing a few names have risen and a few fallen.
I may have a difference of opinion on the names, but the positions seem spot on.
Since we’re going to get 2nd tier Edge’s, almost wouldn’t mind dropping down -and maybe that’s why Licht has seemed pretty coy about the draft this year? Could also be that he’s just going to stick & pick and committed to adding 2 ILB’s & 2 lower tier edges?
The trade down is my prediction, and 20 - 26 is my sweet spot as well. Would love to target Jacob Rodriquez at that point, but I think it’s going get really competitive at that spot for him. If he’s the target, maybe any two of Malachi Lawrence, Cashius Howell, in the 2nd round. Then back ILb (Golday?) in the 3rd, or in R Mason Thomas.
after that we go BPA for DT, CB, OT/G.
There is some depth in this draft, but it’s pretty heavy on 2nd tier guys that can perhaps offer some quality rotational rush specialist options at edge, coverage and downhill specialist at ILB. I’m not married to names at this point (with the possible exception of Jacob Rodriquez).
Thanks, great read!
Yep, Lions destroyed our defensive middle, they destroyed our makeshift o-line offensively and beat the pulp out of Baker.AGAIN . . you can see these types of stats across the season where the Bucs have the outlier bad performance against RBs and TEs.
In the Lions game the Bucs give up an astounding 124 YAC to the Lions RBs and TEs
In the week prior those same Lions players (Gibbs, Montgomery and Wright) only have 1 reception for 6 YAC against the Chiefs
In the next game after (week 9) those same 3 have 40 YAC against the Vikings
Over and over and over .. .
Blueprint for all of our opponents afterwards, and hits on & injuries to Baker, started piling up.
It’s why we got Anzalone and Rozeboom - but also why I think we need to come away from this draft with two competent ILB’s and two rush specialist edges. Maybe Walker will be able to show what Licht thought he could become. The one thing we can do with the available draft options, is build in some specialists in a constant rotation to leverage the edge - only way that will work is to do the same at ILB - layered rotational coverage and downhill specialists.
My two cents, anyway.
They'll trade down and get more picks when there is already a real good player who can help us on the board. Then when they pick they'll be forced to reach on a need but the second pick they received will be a decent pick. This sounds like Tampa draft right?
my prediction is Bucs make an incredible stupid pick by taking the tight end in the first round, neglecting defense yet again
most of us veteran fans will be face palming even more discouraged about the upcoming season, while the homers will talk about it being a great pick and how our offense will be great with slop on defense.
AGAIN . . you can see these types of stats across the season where the Bucs have the outlier bad performance against RBs and TEs.
In the Lions game the Bucs give up an astounding 124 YAC to the Lions RBs and TEs
In the week prior those same Lions players (Gibbs, Montgomery and Wright) only have 1 reception for 6 YAC against the Chiefs
In the next game after (week 9) those same 3 have 40 YAC against the Vikings
Over and over and over .. .
Also good points. They def played a crucial role.
In the end I still don't want to draft a corner early