Eagles GM Howie Roseman is the current "gold standard" GM. Theres a few articles talking about his draft record of hits and misses.
This one includes this evaluation:
"Of his 27 picks in the first three rounds since 2016, 22 have become productive starters – all but 1st-round pick Andre Dillard in 2019, 2nd-round picks Sidney Jones in 2017 and J.J. Arcega-Whiteside in 2019 and 3rd-round picks Davion Taylor in 2020 and Sydney Brown in 2023.
Pretty good track record."
So, 81.4% success rate using the "productive starter" standard. Subjective, obviously, but how does Licht's drafting compare using their standard "productive starter" rounds 1-3 since 2016 (a terrible starting point for Licht lol)
2016 - three picks in first 3 rounds, all busts so 0 of 3
2017 - Howard, Evans Godwin and Beckwith so 2 of 4 or 3 of 4, Evans was a marginal starter until injury. Godwin was a home run.
2018 - Vea, Jones, Stewart, Davis and Cappa -5 of 5 all productive starters, Cappa good enough to move on in FA. Super Bowl players
2019 - White, SMB, Dean and Edward - 4 of 4 all productive starters several SB players
2020 - Wirfs, winfield and Vaughan - 2 of 3
2021 - JTS, Trask and Hainsey. 2 of 3 Trask never really. JTS not great but a "productive starter." Hainsey a starter and then back up.
2022 - Hall Goedeke and White - 3 of 3
2023 - Kancey Mauch Diaby - 3 of 3 or 2 of 3 because Kancey has been injured
2024 - Barton Braswell Smith and McMillan - 3 of 4
2025 - Egbuka morrison and Parrish - 3 of 3
So using the lower number on the close one sthat would be 27 productive starters out of 35 for a 77% success rate. Thats a difference of one player so if you add in players like Evans (2017) or Kancey because injuries are not really under a GM's control, Licht is comprable. Of course, you could go the other direction, so was JTS a "productive" starter? The article doesn't flush out the standard.
One other interesting part is that both Licht and Roseman have a fairy visible learning curve, missing early (eg Vernon Hargreaves) and then hopefully learning form it.
Licht doesn't have a problem with drafts. He has a problem with free agents and when to extend players.
It is hard to tell what the issue is. Either Bowles sucks, Licht sucks, or they both suck. Given the fact that Licht was able to get a team to the Super Bowl with a different coach and Bowles has always sucked as a head coach I lean towards Bowles sucks.
I'd argue he has a problem with drafts outside of 2018 to 2020, maybe 2024
Of those 35, let's see who falls into 1-good pick 2- bad pick 3-mid pick
2016 - Hargreaves, Spence, and Aguayo - 3 bad picks
2017 - Howard, Evans, Godwin, Beckwith -
1 clear good pick in Godwin.
Howard was with the team for 5 years so would suggest "mid" here. a first round pick that became a back-up by year 4. Given first round value, one could argue bad pick here but in no way a good pick
Evans - bad pick. Played 2 years with us, missed the next 4 out of the NFL, back in the NFL now but clearly has not given 2nd round value to us
Beckwith - bad pick. Played 1 year with us. Again, whether injury or what not, was not worth it for us
2018 - Vea, Ronald Jones, MJ Stewart, Carton Davis, Alex Cappa
would suggest 3 good picks here in Vea, Davis, and Cappa.
MJ Stewart a bad pick and Ronald Jones a mid pick
2019 - Devin White, SMB, Jamel Dean, Mike Edwards
Would suggest Dean was a good pick and due to his 2020 contributions we give White a mid pick here. Same for SMB and Edwards. some plays here and there but we could have done worse
2020 - Wirfs, Winfield, and Vaughn
2 good picks and 1 bad pick. Key contributor to superbowl team here with 2 draft for needs pick hitting
2021 - JTR, Trask, Hainsey
2 bad picks with Hansey being mid
2022 - Logan Hall, Goedeke, White
1 good pick in Goedeke, 2 mid picks in Hall and White. They started but not good players that didnt see second contracts
2023 - Kancey, Mauch, Diaby
would suggest Diaby is a good pick while the other two due to injury currently mid with potential to either be good or bad dependent on 2026 season
2024 - Barton, Braswell, Tykee Smith, McMillian
would suggest 1 clear bad pick in Braswell, and let's go with 3 good picks here. Again, 2026 could really move the needle here but we will go off potential
2025 - Egbuka, Morrison, Parrish
if 2023 & 2024 is too early to tell, say the same about 2025.we can go with 2 good picks and maybe a mid in Morrison but obviously 2026 could move the needle.
so the final tally
good - 14
mid - 11
bad - 10
doesn't get any more "mid" than that
the Eagles during the same time period - Goedert, Hurts, Devonta Smith, Dickerson, Milton Williams, Jordan Davis, Cam Jurgens, Naboke Dean, Jalen Carter, Nolan Smith, Quinyon Mitchel, Cooper Dejean, Jalyx Hunt, Jihaad Campbell. So 14 good picks out of 27. A slightly higher "hit" rate with him being 0-5 in his first 2 years in terms of "good picks". so back those out and he is 14 for his last 22...and that's not even suggesting who was mid.
It is hard to tell what the issue is. Either Bowles sucks, Licht sucks, or they both suck. Given the fact that Licht was able to get a team to the Super Bowl with a different coach and Bowles has always sucked as a head coach I lean towards Bowles sucks.
they both suck but feel that Licht is more manageable as he does hit once in a while. Fee like we can work with him.
Take out Brady years and we likely are already on a new GM by 2026.
If the loon was an Eagles fan, could one imagine how hard he would hump Roseman’s leg? Poor Howie would appear to be bukkaked on.
Licht doesn't have a problem with drafts. He has a problem with free agents and when to extend players.
Yes and this comparison is just drafts so only one data point and subjective at that
even with drafts if you change the standard the variance may grow
Of those 35, let's see who falls into 1-good pick 2- bad pick 3-mid pick
yes i just posted in a reply that if we go to some other subjective standard the outcome might change.
Roseman is a good GM so not taking anything away from him. Just rare to see someone try to quantify results so thought it would be interesting
If the loon was an Eagles fan, could one imagine how hard he would hump Roseman’s leg? Poor Howie would appear to be bukkaked on.
Football: 0
Latent homosexuality: 1
Must be a day that end in a "Y"
It is hard to tell what the issue is. Either Bowles sucks, Licht sucks, or they both suck. Given the fact that Licht was able to get a team to the Super Bowl with a different coach and Bowles has always sucked as a head coach I lean towards Bowles sucks.
Another is maybe ownership. Glazers have Licht operating on a cash budget versus Lurie with an almost open check book for Roseman.
I'd argue he has a problem with drafts outside of 2018 to 2020, maybe 2024
Of those 35, let's see who falls into 1-good pick 2- bad pick 3-mid pick
2016 - Hargreaves, Spence, and Aguayo - 3 bad picks
2017 - Howard, Evans, Godwin, Beckwith -
1 clear good pick in Godwin.
Howard was with the team for 5 years so would suggest "mid" here. a first round pick that became a back-up by year 4. Given first round value, one could argue bad pick here but in no way a good pick
Evans - bad pick. Played 2 years with us, missed the next 4 out of the NFL, back in the NFL now but clearly has not given 2nd round value to us
Beckwith - bad pick. Played 1 year with us. Again, whether injury or what not, was not worth it for us
2018 - Vea, Ronald Jones, MJ Stewart, Carton Davis, Alex Cappa
would suggest 3 good picks here in Vea, Davis, and Cappa.
MJ Stewart a bad pick and Ronald Jones a mid pick
2019 - Devin White, SMB, Jamel Dean, Mike Edwards
Would suggest Dean was a good pick and due to his 2020 contributions we give White a mid pick here. Same for SMB and Edwards. some plays here and there but we could have done worse
2020 - Wirfs, Winfield, and Vaughn
2 good picks and 1 bad pick. Key contributor to superbowl team here with 2 draft for needs pick hitting
2021 - JTR, Trask, Hainsey
2 bad picks with Hansey being mid
2022 - Logan Hall, Goedeke, White
1 good pick in Goedeke, 2 mid picks in Hall and White. They started but not good players that didnt see second contracts
2023 - Kancey, Mauch, Diaby
would suggest Diaby is a good pick while the other two due to injury currently mid with potential to either be good or bad dependent on 2026 season
2024 - Barton, Braswell, Tykee Smith, McMillian
would suggest 1 clear bad pick in Braswell, and let's go with 3 good picks here. Again, 2026 could really move the needle here but we will go off potential
2025 - Egbuka, Morrison, Parrish
if 2023 & 2024 is too early to tell, say the same about 2025.we can go with 2 good picks and maybe a mid in Morrison but obviously 2026 could move the needle.
so the final tally
good - 14
mid - 11
bad - 10
doesn't get any more "mid" than that
the Eagles during the same time period - Goedert, Hurts, Devonta Smith, Dickerson, Milton Williams, Jordan Davis, Cam Jurgens, Naboke Dean, Jalen Carter, Nolan Smith, Quinyon Mitchel, Cooper Dejean, Jalyx Hunt, Jihaad Campbell. So 14 good picks out of 27. A slightly higher "hit" rate with him being 0-5 in his first 2 years in terms of "good picks". so back those out and he is 14 for his last 22...and that's not even suggesting who was mid.
Licht was very hyper focused on drafting depth in his drafts pre 2020 outside of the first 2 rounds. That explains the reach for the kicker in the 2nd round as Licht saw that a plug and play starter. We see that pattern return with the 2021 draft and it backfires on Licht. So Licht has adjusted and actually look for guys that can compete as starters now well into the 4th round now. It could be argued that Licht saw many of his third rounders as starting caliber or borderline even before his 2020 drafts. However it is quite clear the shift has happened which is why the organization expects their 3rd and 4th rounders to be spot starters now versus in the past.