@jc5100 - Shaq IS my example. He wasn’t a starter in Denver. He showed that he had all the potential but was stuck behind Von Miller and Bradley Chubb. That’s a great pickup by Licht. There wasn’t much development needed. His talent fit Bowles defense perfectly. And he hit the ground running.
And players obviously matter “no shit”. But their production is affected by coaching and scheme from year to year. And injuries matter too “no shit”. But even with last year’s injuries that offensive line would have looked better than it did last year with Coen. And every player in that locker room would agree.
The OL was good in 2024 because Wirfs, Goedeke and Mauch are really good. They played 0 snaps together in 2025. Coen wasn't going to get Andy Heck and Dan Feeney to block. He couldn't get Graham Barton to block.
It's both. The oline was healthy in 2024 and Coens run design was dynamic, changing series to series, setting up the defense over and over.
add in Irving and 2024 is night/day to 2025 because available talent and OC
@theknees - if Styles somehow falls around 10, I’d love if we went and got him. And how could we (or Bowles) pass up on Downs if he falls to us? Immediate stud. Trade Winfield for a third round pick, and let Downs and Tykee Smith run the backside of the defense for the next 5 years.
While many view Bowles negatively, he isn't as bad as people think, and Coen isn't as great as some believe
This.
That is a pretty good draft too, @donkey_hunter.
I agree with everything you are saying, JC. I just couldn't pass up the defensive talent in the first 2 rounds in positions that also need help. You make one very critical point that I am not sure folks are realizing is how "teetering on the edge" the O-Line is. We all saw it several times last year when none of our projected starters could take the field at the same time. I would honestly be ok with any of those O-Linemen you mentioned in your take but just prefer the defensive talent.@jc5100 - eventually you have to fill your weakest roster spots. BPA is fine when you’re set at all your positions. We have too many needs on defense to take a luxury pick on an offensive lineman.
Offensive linemen are not luxury picks. It’s a fallacy that our offensive line is set. It was a disaster last year. Wirfs has a chronic high ankle and now has something going on with his knee since 2024. He misses games. We have to accept it and plan for it. There are some monster OL in this first round.
@jc5100 - Shaq IS my example. He wasn’t a starter in Denver. He showed that he had all the potential but was stuck behind Von Miller and Bradley Chubb. That’s a great pickup by Licht. There wasn’t much development needed. His talent fit Bowles defense perfectly. And he hit the ground running.
And players obviously matter “no shit”. But their production is affected by coaching and scheme from year to year. And injuries matter too “no shit”. But even with last year’s injuries that offensive line would have looked better than it did last year with Coen. And every player in that locker room would agree.
Another no shit comment from you. No shit the offensive line would have looked better with Coen than Grizzard. But if you think they would have been good you're nuts.
Not only should offensive line be on the table in round 1, it should be the priority. Finish it, let it be the dominanting force of the team. Right now it's 1 historic oft-injured player, 2 very good injured players and 2 JAGs. Replace one of the JAGs with a pro-bowler. Lead the league in rushing.
Most offensive lines are an injury away from a mess. Here’s my issue, we’re talking about a unit that is an injury away from a mess. Well, we have issues on defense with units before an injury even happens.
I do like the idea of having an offensive lineman that can step in, but not for the same reason as you’re thinking. Mine is to have someone that can step in next year for either Goedeke or Mauch. We can’t afford to pay 3 linemen $24M+ a year. Gotta have young guys filtering in to keep the unit salary affordable.
Especially once we pay Baker or another QB $50M. The way it’s looking right now, we’ll be paying Yaya $20M+ a year next year. For an average team, we have way too many $20M+ players. And the bigger problem is we over pay many of our own to keep them.
Again, we still don’t have a 3 down OLB to play opposite Yaya. We may be even worse off at that position than last year, and I was no Reddick fan or of the signing. Now, I doubt we find that guy in this draft and needed to do it outside of the draft. We also still need a true MLB for day one. I’m not against oline help… at all. But let’s not act like it’s in worst shape than other units on this team.
If you look at Licht's history he tends to draft trenches early or takes skill positions. Devin White is like the anomaly and safety/TE in round 1 would be a shocker pick. Honestly if the draft board falls as it will it is possible Licht goes DT in round 1 since Vea is on the last year of his contract and Kancey isn't a guarantee to be re upped after his contract expires.
The Bucs tend to draft in rounds 1 through 3 with cap considerations and gaps in their future roster projections along the trenches or high skill positions. That is why EE fit for the Bucs in case Evans left the following year(which happened) but also protection from injury with depth and having a five year contract to counter balance Godwins monster cap number. EE was clearly a BAP pick while also addressing a future need.
Usually the cap building philosophy is that if you have X position with high cap number you need to draft players cheaply to counter balance this. McMillan, T. Johnson, and EE are all on rookie contracts so Godwin's cap number while gargantuan is not that much if you sum the total of the entire WR group. Which is why I suspect the Bucs were able to still project and fit in Evans in their cap equation if he wanted to return this off season.
Guard is another possibility because of the uncertainty with Mauch and Bredeson is on the last year of his 2 year deal. Plus, like WR guard has had issues with depth. WR depth lacking hurt the Bucs in 2024 and guard depth lacking hurt the Bucs in 2025.
But in terms of value guards and safeties are high value in rounds 2 and 3 because Licht loves drafting DBs and guards in these rounds.
So don't be surprised if Licht goes DT in round 1 and guard in round 2. The Bucs may roll the dice by drafting edge and ILB in rounds 3 and 4. Just a possibility given Licht has been burned using first round and 2nd round picks at edge (JTS, Braswell, Spence). Meanwhile Licht has had his best success drafting ILB and OLB in rounds 3, 4, and 5 (K. Alexander, A. Nelson, K. Beckwith, Diaby Britt, Dennis). And Walker has the potential to join the list of mid round picks at LB that excel under Licht.
Licht also likes his value picks up along DL and OL in the mid rounds so trading down for mid round picks may be worth their weight in gold (Roberts, Klein, Hainsey, K. Davis, Cappa, ).
can’t afford to pay 3 linemen $24M+ a year. Gotta have young guys filtering in to keep the unit salary affordable.
Especially once we pay Baker or another QB $50M. The way it’s looking right now, we’ll be paying Yaya $20M+ a year next year. For an average team, we have way too many $20M+ players.
This
Since the conversation has moved direction with O-Lineman being considered in the first, I ran a second mock draft. This turned out ok. I am really only pleased with my 1st, 4th, and 5th pick in this mock. The landscape changed quickly once I drafted Freeling in the first.
1st Round: Monroe Freeling – OT, Georgia
2nd Round: Gabe Jacas – EDGE/LB, Illinois
3rd Round: Dani Dennis-Sutton – EDGE, Penn State
4th Round: Will Lee III – CB, Texas A&M
5th Round: Zane Durant – DT, Penn State
6th Round: Lander Barton – LB, Utah
7th Round: Diego Pounds – OT, Ole Miss
Most offensive lines are an injury away from a mess. Here’s my issue, we’re talking about a unit that is an injury away from a mess. Well, we have issues on defense with units before an injury even happens.
I do like the idea of having an offensive lineman that can step in, but not for the same reason as you’re thinking. Mine is to have someone that can step in next year for either Goedeke or Mauch. We can’t afford to pay 3 linemen $24M+ a year. Gotta have young guys filtering in to keep the unit salary affordable.
Especially once we pay Baker or another QB $50M. The way it’s looking right now, we’ll be paying Yaya $20M+ a year next year. For an average team, we have way too many $20M+ players. And the bigger problem is we over pay many of our own to keep them.
Again, we still don’t have a 3 down OLB to play opposite Yaya. We may be even worse off at that position than last year, and I was no Reddick fan or of the signing. Now, I doubt we find that guy in this draft and needed to do it outside of the draft. We also still need a true MLB for day one. I’m not against oline help… at all. But let’s not act like it’s in worst shape than other units on this team.
Diaby averages 6.3 sacks per year. There’s no way he’s worth 20M a year. If he explodes in a contract year then it’s a dangerous outlier. If he wants 20M a year then let him play out the contract year and let him walk. It will be a bad contract.
As for Baker getting 50M a year, he hasn’t earned that either. Why get held hostage by average players to let a good player go? Yea Edge and QB are more valuable than guard but Mauch is a plus player. His 2024 film is borderline elite.
Having an elite offensive line is a cheat code. Bucs are on the cusp of it but not there yet. Finish it.
Diaby averages 6.3 sacks per year. There’s no way he’s worth 20M a year.
JQ
Tampa Bay has consistently been able to execute deals where players take slightly less than projections would suggest. I would venture that they can split the APY difference between Karlaftis and Oweh at $23 million per year over four years. Carrying the final year of his rookie, and the final effective contract is five years and $95,674,000 with an effective APY of $19,134,000.
Diaby averages 6.3 sacks per year. There’s no way he’s worth 20M a year.
JQ
Tampa Bay has consistently been able to execute deals where players take slightly less than projections would suggest. I would venture that they can split the APY difference between Karlaftis and Oweh at $23 million per year over four years. Carrying the final year of his rookie, and the final effective contract is five years and $95,674,000 with an effective APY of $19,134,000.
1. Bucs get players for slightly less because there’s no state income tax. This isn’t Greenberg wizardry that Pewter Report overrates.
2. We have 27 year old Diaby locked in at 1 year, 3.9M. You can’t lump it in with 28-31 year old at $23M+. This is likely going to be Diaby’s best year. If you extend him now you throw away that value. And what are we really paying for? He’s not that good of a pass rusher. Hes a slightly better version of Greg Spires. We can replace his production fairly easily.