While I’ve always maintained that grading a draft should be reserved for a few years post-selection, it’s still valuable to share initial opinions. Here’s mine.
You have to start with a team’s first pick. In the case of the Bucs, selecting Rueben Bain Jr. at 15 might be the most universally accepted choice among ownership, front office, coaches, and fans. Bain, who fell to this spot, is arguably the most dominant edge pass rusher from last season, finishing with 5 sacks in 4 College Football Playoff games. That’s impressive production!
The Bain pick has to earn an A+ grade right after the draft weekend, setting a strong tone for the overall grade regardless of subsequent picks. First-round selections are expected to contribute significantly during the 2026 season, and while second and third-round picks ideally provide valuable snaps, anything beyond that is considered a bonus. Here’s where I see some potential issues that could affect the overall draft grade.
Before I share my Overall Draft Grade, let’s break down each pick:
1st Round: Rueben Bain Jr., Edge, Miami
In my previous mock draft, I had the Bucs selecting Bain’s teammate, Ahkeem Mesidor, because I didn’t expect Bain to be available at #15. While I would have been satisfied with Mesidor before the Bain drop, I’m elated with the Bain selection. He brings the consistent outside pass rush the Bucs have lacked since the 2020 and 2021 seasons, keeping opposing quarterbacks awake at night before games. I do have some reservations about the Bucs’ ability to develop an outside linebacker’s pass rush skills, but Bain was well-coached in college.
It will be up to Coach Todd Bowles to maximize his attributes. Lean into each player’s strengths and let Bain and Yaya Diaby go after the quarterback, instead of dropping into the flats. Imagine the havoc Bain, Diaby, Kancey, and Vea could wreak on third downs with their pass-rushing ability while the other seven defenders focus on coverage. Grade: A+
2nd Round: Josiah Trotter, ILB, Missouri
I previously drafted Trotter in the 4th round in earlier mocks and even considered him in the 3rd. However, the 2nd round feels a bit high, especially with other talent available. Trotter is a downhill player with a solid tackle success rate, but he tends to leave his feet too early, which could hinder him at the NFL level.
I like Trotter as a player, but I question where he was selected. The Bucs may have been caught off guard when the Dolphins drafted Jacob Rodriguez just before their pick, leading me to believe they didn’t secure the best player available at that moment. I had multiple linebackers ranked higher who were still on the board, such as CJ Allen, Anthony Hill Jr., and Kaleb Elarms-Orr. Elarms-Orr, who could have been a steal in the 4th round, showcased sideline-to-sideline capabilities with 125+ tackles in 2026 and demonstrated blitzing skills. We’ll see how Trotter performs in the coming years. Grade: C+
3rd Round: Ted Hurst, WR, Georgia State
Hurst has immense potential at 6’4″ and 206 pounds, and I see him as a candidate for the future X receiver (though I prefer him as a Z). While there’s a desire to replace Mike Evans, let’s not jump the gun just yet. Evans was a 7th overall pick; Hurst is the 84th. The Bucs have taken mid-round receivers before, hoping to find hidden gems, only to realize they were just average.
I like the pick, but I would have preferred to address other needs. It wouldn’t have hurt to select Daylen Everette, a corner out of Georgia, who went just a few picks later. Everette, standing 6’1″ and running a 4.38 40, would fit Bowles’ Cover 3/Cover 4 schemes nicely. Grade: B
4th Round: Keionte Scott, CB, Miami
Scott offers strong value at the 116th overall pick. He’s a dynamic leader with big-play potential. I’ve consistently advocated for Bowles to bring in corners for nickel roles instead of relying on safeties, and hopefully, Scott will fill that role. While I wouldn’t have minded the Bucs selecting Kyle Louis (ILB out of Pittsburgh) or Fernando Carmona (G, Arkansas) here, Scott is a solid addition. Grade: B
5th Round: DeMonte Capehart, DT, Clemson
Capehart is primarily a run-stuffer and fits best in a 2-gap defense, which isn’t the Bucs’ scheme. He may not have the quickest first step, but he holds his own in one-on-one blocks. While he may not be a flashy pick and lacks significant pass-rushing ability, he can effectively clog run lanes. Grade: B-
5th Round: Billy Schrauth, G, Notre Dame
Schrauth isn’t the quickest or strongest lineman but is technically sound. He logged plenty of snaps for the Fighting Irish and is a smart player. However, I question whether he has the talent to become a consistent starter on Sundays. Carmona (mentioned above) is a more talented option. Grade: C+
6th Round: Bauer Sharp, TE, LSU
I’m not sure about this pick. Sharp has receiving skills as a tight end but lacks blocking ability. At 6’5″, his height is promising, but I’m skeptical about a tight end who can’t block. I would have preferred Dallen Bentley (TE, Utah), who was the second to last player picked in the 7th round. Bentley is a solid blocker and could have stepped in as the #2 tight end. This selection leaves me puzzled—perhaps someone in the organization has a connection to Sharp? Grade: D
Overall Score: B
The Bucs nailed their most crucial pick with first-round edge Rueben Bain Jr. Everything else feels like a bonus, though they sometimes seem to lose focus after making a solid selection.
I hope Trotter can hit the ground running, but I suspect some weaknesses might emerge as liabilities at the NFL level. I also hope Ted Hurst can demonstrate he was a viable Power 5 contributor. My best hope for immediate impact lies with Keionte Scott, who may help fill the void left by Christian Izien.
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It's a D+ draft without landing Bain.
Bain is such a crazy good pick that it's in the C+/B- category
FWIW - Lynch getting roasted for over drafting a WR. Article touches on the disconnect sometimes between the pre-draft mock industry and actual team FO people
Trotter is the Bucs version but seems there was a belief he never makes it to 77 (original pick) and the Bucs had him rated higher than most here, apparently.
@bucsbits - good article. There’s definitely no exact science, but sometimes the Bucs get stuck on guys and take them earlier than needed. I hope Trotter turns into the next great Bucs linebacker.
Lets start with the bottom and work our way up to the top.
Sharp I have read can block in space relatively with great ease due to his athleticism, but he doesn't finish with his hands because he isn't fast enough with his hand placement. That is easily correctable with coach Peele. As for his receiving prowess his sample size is small and he did make a position switch. But his athletic traits are off the charts and he is large enough to add weight too due to his frame. Culp at 2 inches shorter can add only so much weight compared to Sharp but Culp is faster no doubt. Still, Sharp displays traits that Durham and Otton do not have so that is why I think the Bucs highly coveted him for this team.
Schrauth is perfectly fine to draft that late in the draft and technically sound is also perfectly fine for the Bucs scheme at LG or RG. RG requires a lot less athleticism compared to LG but even the Bucs are starting Bredeson who is modestly athletic at best.
Capehart doesn't seem like a 2 gapper based on what he has shown as he shows traits of explosion that indicates he is ideal in a one gap system. Whether his craft is refined at 5 tech or NT will be determined but given his traits and length I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up at 5 tech but right now I think NT backup to Vea and Roches would be a good starting point.
Scott may be able to play safety or NCB which is a huge bonus for the team in light of losing Izien. But I think Scott's value will be more apparent on special teams and that is why it was a great value selection for that reason.
Hurst is another gem that Licht has hit a home run on as the third round is Licht's money round when the dust settles. It is easy to compare Hurst to less refined or raw WRs like Raiders Thorton form last year draft. But Hurst is more developed as a WR and backed that up with production. In fact Hurst is going to make a lot of waves when training camp is underway. A player with his size and speed but also ability to make razor sharp cuts isn't to be underestimated. People are sleeping on Hurst.
Trotter was drafted to compete with Dennis an Rozeboom for the Mike spot while Anzaolone locks down the green dot Money backer spot. Trotter on paper is an upgrade over Dennis going down hill and may be as good of a tackler as Rozeboom. Rozeboom has been a tackling machine with the Rams and Pathers so Trotter and Rozeboom will really press Dennis in this competition. Dennis can be a streaky player and rally to make tackles in a single game and in other games be shut out.
Bain is going to be a force not only in passing situations but in run situations. It will also allow Diaby to do his work on one side while Bain and Muhammed lock down the other side. Throw in a healthy Walker as the 4th and Nelson as the 5th and the Bucs have some rotation going. I am more excited about the rotation than any single player because that is what will unlock team success.
@bucsbits - good article. There’s definitely no exact science, but sometimes the Bucs get stuck on guys and take them earlier than needed. I hope Trotter turns into the next great Bucs linebacker.
I agree they do seem to get stick on guys. A little bit like Lynch was saying in the linked article, confidence (for better and worse) in their internal consensus.
it woukd be interesting to think how that has worked out across their player evaluations. For example, it arguably worked short term with White but then failed overall. They likely ignored things others saw.
they got Marpet right. Not so much with Klein, although not sure if he was a reach.
maybe one interesting discussion for all the draft-oriented folks is what do you do in this scenario:
1) Trotter is the LB you want
2) you agree with the consensus BB he is 61
3) you have 46 and 77 picks
4) no takers on trades?
i think every draft nick says Trotter is a reach but the alternative is you don't get who you evaluate as the fit.
Trotter is the Bucs version but seems there was a belief he never makes it to 77 (original pick) and the Bucs had him rated higher than most here, apparently.
Well yeah they reached on him over a better LB prospect
I will take a stab at this one.
maybe one interesting discussion for all the draft-oriented folks is what do you do in this scenario:
1) Trotter is the LB you want
2) you agree with the consensus BB he is 61
3) you have 46 and 77 picks
4) no takers on trades?
i think every draft nick says Trotter is a reach but the alternative is you don't get who you evaluate as the fit.
First, I am not buying the narrative that there were no willing trade partners. There were trades all up and down the draft board. They could have made a trade if they really wanted one.
Now that being said, if Trotter absolutely is the LB I want, then I am probably drafting him regardless of where he is rated.......but I also am going to try like hell to unload that 46 pick for something in the 50s and see if I can get another pick coupled with it so that its not such a rated-risk reach. Ideally I would be looking heavily at 55 and maybe a 120-something for close value to the 46 pick. I refuse to believe that deal could not be made.
But if all else fails and there truly are no takers, and he is the guy I have my heart set on (even though he is poor value at that pick number), then I follow Licht and Bowles philosophy and take him but I cuss under my breath because I have to make that pick.
@alldaway - well if your fandom, confidence and over exuberance have anything to do with how this draft class plays out, then we’re in great shape. Maybe one of the best drafts by an organization ever. I’m all for it.
To the contrary I still think this is an 8-9 team. Licht had to pull of a miracle from the draft for this team to move forward and he might have by landing Scott and Bain. But that will be determined with training camp. With that said too much focus on Trotter when Scott and Hurst are being underrated. Scott should have been a 2nd round pick and Hurst pretty much went where most had him. But a lot of inferior WRs were drafted ahead of Hurst in round 2. So that is where Licht once again landed a home run with a WR in the third round and I firmly believe this. Schrauth was slated to go a round higher easily so Licht did his homework on him as well and frankly throwing him in the mix with Haggard and Klein to see who emerges is the best possible scenario. But there are some that believe Schrauth can start in the NFL as a rookie which is high praise but I think I will pump the brakes on him for now.
I do think the mock draft cottage industry does seem to not find a ceiling regarding “confidence” - teams have their own board-room confidence issues. Both are consistently scrutinized, but only one has their career on the line.
maybe one interesting discussion for all the draft-oriented folks is what do you do in this scenario:
1) Trotter is the LB you want
2) you agree with the consensus BB he is 61
3) you have 46 and 77 picks
4) no takers on trades?
i think every draft nick says Trotter is a reach but the alternative is you don't get who you evaluate as the fit.
When team “confidence bias” sets in it causes blind spots & you end up with a repeating pattern of JTS and Devin White type picks.
Let’s hope we’re over that, I love the draft, did a dance and high fived with Bain pick, then yelled at the screen & spiraled when we took Trotter in the second…but now that the picks are in, so I’m just hoping Trotter proves me wrong.
If so, I’m here for it!
Really though, Bain falling all the way to us made this a great draft. I loved the Hurst & Scott picks, and I think Capehart was a sneaky-good pick, but his endurance must have been a concern as they had him on a pitch-count at Clemson.
Jury is out on Bauer Sharp, but any contribution from a 6th or 7th rounder is just gravy.
I think this is a solid B draft and when graded with free-agent additions, really built a lot of rotational benefits that can maybe minimize when the injury bug starts kicking in.
BIG expectations for this season, BIG.
@ehinote - nice thread & write up.
Liked the notes/counter by @alldaway
nice participation all around!
I will take a stab at this one.
maybe one interesting discussion for all the draft-oriented folks is what do you do in this scenario:
1) Trotter is the LB you want
2) you agree with the consensus BB he is 61
3) you have 46 and 77 picks
4) no takers on trades?
i think every draft nick says Trotter is a reach but the alternative is you don't get who you evaluate as the fit.
First, I am not buying the narrative that there were no willing trade partners. There were trades all up and down the draft board. They could have made a trade if they really wanted one.
Now that being said, if Trotter absolutely is the LB I want, then I am probably drafting him regardless of where he is rated.......but I also am going to try like hell to unload that 46 pick for something in the 50s and see if I can get another pick coupled with it so that its not such a rated-risk reach. Ideally I would be looking heavily at 55 and maybe a 120-something for close value to the 46 pick. I refuse to believe that deal could not be made.
But if all else fails and there truly are no takers, and he is the guy I have my heart set on (even though he is poor value at that pick number), then I follow Licht and Bowles philosophy and take him but I cuss under my breath because I have to make that pick.
Just has to let the colts trade up for Allen. It isn't a magic wand but it's reasonable to assume they could have made a deal and traded back and still got Trotter