Season predictions are a funny thing. They’re built on how healthy teams look heading into Week 1, what you know about the opponents on your schedule, and what your gut tells you after watching a full offseason of football. But everything can change in an instant. Teams ride waves. You catch some opponents at their peak and others at their lowest. Last year I predicted a 10-7 season with a 4-2 start. We were headed exactly that direction — until the wheels flew off. Here’s hoping for a smoother ride in 2026.
WEEK 1 — Bucs at Bengals
I’ve always believe in Todd Bowles on opening week. The Bucs are 3-0 in season openers under his leadership, and he is at his absolute best when given an entire offseason to craft a defensive game plan. It doesn’t hurt that as good as the Bucs tend to be in openers, the Bengals are historically bad. Cincinnati has gone just 1-6 in season openers under Zac Taylor. But I’m not sure that trends holds up this year.
The Bucs defense will be tested by Joe Burrow and his talented skill players, but this is a favorable matchup for Tampa Bay’s front four. The Bengals’ offensive line is not special, which should allow Rueben Bain Jr. and company to get after Burrow without requiring Todd Bowles to overcommit to the blitz. Hopefully he lets the front four work and keeps the back seven in multiple coverage looks.
On offense, the Bucs will need to mix things up early. I’m eager to see how Zac Robinson’s wide zone scheme translates in a real game. Will it open up enough space to run consistently? Or will we find ourselves in a parade of third-and-sevens? Either way, I’d love to see Baker throw on first down early and keep Cincinnati’s defense off balance.
Prediction: Loss (Bucs 19, Bengals 27)
WEEK 2 — Browns at Bucs
This should be a hot afternoon at Raymond James Stadium, and hopefully the Bucs take full advantage of it by jumping out to an early lead. The Browns offense is a mess, and Tampa Bay’s defense should be able to contain Deshaun Watson and a Cleveland offense that has very little to threaten you with. If they can’t, we have bigger problems than this one game.
I expect the Bucs offense to come out noticeably sharper in game two. Baker finds his rhythm early with short, efficient completions. Rueben Bain Jr. records his first NFL sack. Calijah Kancey adds one of his own. And Alex Anzalone and Antoine Winfield Jr. combine on a sack that had the coaching staff drawing it up all week. Good day to be a Buc.
Prediction: Win (Browns 13, Bucs 30)
WEEK 3 — Vikings at Bucs
The Vikings represent a genuine coaching challenge for Bowles, though he did get the best of Kevin O’Connell in their only meeting back in 2023. Kyler Murray is never an easy out. His ability to extend plays and create with his legs puts enormous pressure on a defense’s assignment discipline, and missed assignments in the secondary could mean wide open receivers in a hurry.
Defensively, Brian Flores gives offenses nightmares as a coordinator. The Bucs absolutely cannot afford to get into third-and-long situations against his scheme. Stay ahead of the chains. Control the tempo. Even with those challenges, I think Baker and company have enough to pull this one out at home.
Prediction: Win (Vikings 23, Bucs 27)
WEEK 4 — Packers at Bucs
It’s genuinely hard to know what to expect from this Packers team between injuries and suspensions that will keep key players out early. But Matt LaFleur remains one of the sharpest offensive minds in football, and his run-heavy scheme presents an interesting matchup against a Tampa Bay defense built to stop the run. The key is keeping Jordan Love from getting hot. He is as streaky as any quarterback in the league.
This feels like one of those quietly frustrating games where Baker throws two unexplainable interceptions that put the team in a hole they can’t quite climb out of. We make it interesting late but ultimately come up short.
Prediction: Loss (Packers 27, Bucs 17)
Record after Week 4: 2-2
WEEK 5 — Bucs at Cowboys (Thursday Night Football)
Dak Prescott is a stat accumulator and receivers like CeeDee Lamb give Todd Bowles’ defenses real problems. Dallas has also added some meaningful pieces to their defense this offseason. This is an important game for both teams as they meet with identical .500 records under the Thursday night lights.
I have a feeling the Bucs finally show up for a Thursday Night Football game and Baker absolutely bakes. Too bad Dak bakes right back. The scoreboard will struggle to keep up with both offenses. Baker throws three touchdowns, Godwin, Hurst, and Gainwell. Dak throws three of his own to Lamb twice and George Pickens, then runs one in late for the difference.
Prediction: Loss (Bucs 30, Cowboys 34)
WEEK 6 — Steelers at Bucs
I’m genuinely not sure what to make of the Mike McCarthy era in Pittsburgh. I get the feeling the game has passed him by a bit. That said, they still have T.J. Watt and Aaron Rodgers, two players capable of changing a game completely on their own.
This is essentially a must-win for the Bucs. A 2-4 start would be a very uncomfortable place to be in the NFC South. T.J. Watt gives our offensive line fits all afternoon, but Baker makes enough plays with his legs to keep points on the board. And Jacob Parrish puts the game away with a late interception of Rodgers.
Prediction: Win (Steelers 16, Bucs 20)
WEEK 7 — Bucs at Panthers
Carolina will be coming off a two-game losing streak with a tough schedule looming. The Bucs smell blood and play accordingly. Baker bounces back with two touchdown passes and a rushing score. Rueben Bain Jr. has the first two-sack game of his NFL career. This is the kind of winnable road game the Bucs need to capitalize on.
Prediction: Win (Bucs 27, Panthers 16)
WEEK 8 — Falcons at Bucs
The Bucs haven’t forgotten last season’s Thursday night debacle against Atlanta, the third-and-28, the fourth-and-14. None of it. Tua is back under center for the Falcons, and the Bucs’ defensive line lights him up. Five sacks on the night, Diaby, Bain, Walker, Kancey, and Tykee Smith. Bucky Irving runs for over 100 yards. Cade Otton catches two touchdowns. The Bucs rattle off their first three-game winning streak of the season.
Prediction: Win (Falcons 10, Bucs 24)
Record after Week 8: 5-3
WEEK 9 — Bucs at Bears (Sunday Night Football)
The stage is set for the Bucs to carry real momentum into their bye week. Instead, Caleb Williams celebrates on the Sunday Night Football stage, throwing for over 300 yards and three touchdowns. The Bucs defense looks like it’s playing with ten players at times, the middle of the field wide open all evening. A missed opportunity heading into the bye.
Prediction: Loss (Bucs 17, Bears 28)
WEEK 10 — BYE WEEK
WEEK 11 — Bucs at Lions
Coming out of the bye, the Bucs look like their heads are still on vacation. Jared Goff carves up the middle of Tampa Bay’s defense all afternoon. Amon-Ra St. Brown catches two touchdown passes. Gibbs takes a screen pass 45 yards to the house. The Bucs offense never gets going in Detroit, and a promising second half of the season gets off to the worst possible start.
Prediction: Loss (Bucs 12, Lions 30)
WEEK 12 — Panthers at Bucs
After last season’s slip-up against Carolina, the Bucs won’t look past them twice. Kenny Gainwell scores twice — one rushing, one receiving — and the defense puts constant pressure on Bryce Young from start to finish, nearly eliminating the Panthers from playoff contention in the process.
Prediction: Win (Panthers 10, Bucs 23)
WEEK 13 — Chargers at Bucs
On paper this is a favorable matchup. The Chargers love to lean on their run game, and the Bucs are built to stop the run first. But Jim Harbaugh won’t play into our hands. He’ll let Justin Herbert throw early and often, catching the Bucs’ defense out of position on early downs. The Chargers are fighting for a playoff spot of their own and bring a desperate edge to Raymond James.
Prediction: Loss (Chargers 27, Bucs 16)
Record after Week 13: 6-6
WEEK 14 — Ravens at Bucs
Lamar Jackson is one of those players and systems that Todd Bowles has never figured out. Two years ago, Ravens receivers were running so wide open downfield it looked like a walk-through against air. I’m not expecting much different, because stopping Baltimore is purely a schematic challenge. Overplaying one phase inevitably opens up another for big plays.
Tampa Bay slows the Ravens’ run game for much of the first half, but Baltimore inevitably breaks two long touchdown runs and continues finding receivers open over the middle with systematic defensive breakdowns.
Prediction: Loss (Bucs 17, Ravens 38)
WEEK 15 — Saints at Bucs
Many analysts believe the Saints could make a division run this year. I’m not one of them. How many times have we seen a team end a season on an upswing with a young quarterback who does just enough, only for everything to fall apart when expectations actually arrive? I see a quarterback who overachieved when asked to do very little. Now he’ll be expected to lead. That’s a different job entirely.
The Bucs finally dominate the Saints at home. Three sacks. Two interceptions, including Zyon McCollum’s first pick of the season.
Prediction: Win (Saints 6, Bucs 23)
WEEK 16 — Bucs at Falcons
Thanks to the Panthers faltering early and the Saints not meeting expectations, this one could decide the NFC South. Yes, sadly it may once again come down to an eight or nine-win division champion.
After a quarterback carousel in Atlanta, Michael Penix finds himself back in the starting seat. Too bad the Bucs are ready for him. Bain dominates with two sacks and relentless pressure. Kancey and Vea each add one of their own. The offense does just enough to get the job done.
Prediction: Win (Bucs 20, Falcons 13)
WEEK 17 — Rams at Bucs
Even with a chance to lock up the division championship at home, the Bucs continue their baffling inability to solve Sean McVay. His offense glides down the field with ease during the first half for three touchdowns and a field goal, then takes the foot off the gas in the second half for a win that was never seriously threatened. Same story, different year.
Prediction: Loss (Rams 34, Bucs 15)
Record after Week 17: 8-8
WEEK 18 — Bucs at Saints
Even after losing to the Rams, the Bucs have backed into the NFC South championship and hold all tiebreaker scenarios regardless of what the Saints do. Because of this, the Bucs rest their starters, hand the ball to the backups, and wave goodbye to any chance of a perfect division sweep.
Prediction: Loss (Bucs 7, Saints 23)
FINAL RECORD: 8-9
NFC South Champions. Yes, you read that correctly. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers again win the NFC South division title with a losing record. Whether that’s a celebration or an indictment of the entire division is a conversation for another day. Either way, the Bucs are in the playoffs. And in January, anything can happen.
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