Coming off a super bowl win, let's beat a dead horse and examine this all-time awful draft at the absolute worst time.
Round 1
(Pick 32): Joe Tryon, OLB (Washington) + retired after 5 seasons
Round 2 (Pick 64): Kyle Trask, QB (Florida) + can't even make it as a third string qb
Round 3 (Pick 95): Robert Hainsey, OL (ND) + ended up being an ok pick sorta... Played decent last year and at least can add depth despite not being a true starting calibur player
Round 4 (Pick 129): Jaelon Darden, WR (North Texas) + lmfao did he even last 2 seasons?
Round 5 (Pick 176): K.J. Britt, LB (Auburn) downhill LB that can't cover and barely in the league... Hopefully we didn't just draft his more athletic clone
Round 7 (Pick 251): Chris Wilcox, CB (BYU) + immediately out of the league
Round 7 (Pick 259): Grant Stuard, LB (Houston) + actually a really good pick but we decided to trade him for peanuts
...
So... It's pretty clear Licht fucked up our repeat chances with this all time stinker of a draft.
Horse beat...the final last one for this draft.
It was one of those drafts that we knew sucked immediately as it was happened
ofcourse homers going to Homer, but most of us were wondering WTF right then and there
A lot of the players from that draft are still in the league. So the problem is that most of them were reaches a round or two early and the Bucs did not pursue value. Licht has improved since then looking for value (2nd round still is controversial round for Licht) and players with upside of being potential starters down the line (eg McCollum, Roberts).
That draft was disgusting. Let's make it sting a little more, shall we? This is who we passed on to take JTS in the 1st Round:
Creed Humphrey (C, Chiefs – Pick 63)
Landon Dickerson (OL, Eagles – Pick 37)
Jeremiah Owusu‑Koramoah (LB, Browns – Pick 52)
Nick Bolton (LB, Chiefs – Pick 58)
Jevon Holland (S, Dolphins – Pick 36)
That's just to begin with. There were also guys like: Asante Samuel Jr. (CB, Chargers – Pick 47) and Pat Freiermuth (TE, Steelers – Pick 55)........and that was just guys passed up for JTS in the 1st round.
In the 2nd round, we took Kyle Trask over guys like: Spencer Brown (OT, Bills – Pick 93), Paulson Adebo (CB, Saints – Pick 76), Nico Collins (WR, Texans – Pick 89), Josh Palmer (WR, Chargers – Pick 77).
In the 3rd round, we took Robert Hainsey and passed on guys like: Amon‑Ra St. Brown (WR, Lions – Pick 112), Rhamondre Stevenson (RB, Patriots – Pick 120), and Chuba Hubbard (RB, Panthers – Pick 126).
In the 4th, we took Jaelon Darden and passed on guys like: Evan McPherson (K, Bengals – Pick 149), Talanoa Hufanga (S, 49ers – Pick 180), and Kenneth Gainwell (RB, Eagles – Pick 150).
In the 5th, we took KJ Britt and passed on guys like: Trey Smith (OG, Chiefs – Pick 226), Elijah Mitchell (RB, 49ers – Pick 194), and Damar Hamlin (S, Bills – Pick 212).
Yeah, this one hurt.
Passing on Creed Humphrey was criminal knowing that the Bucs were not going to pay Cappa to stick around and still ended up using a draft pick later to address OL with Hainsey. It could be argued had the Seahawks drafted Humphrey they would not have needed to draft Zabel in the 2025 draft or the other interior OL in prior drafts A lot of teams really passed up Humphrey because they were not looking at the total value of the player and it cost them.
Koramoah was looked at a a true joker player that could be used to play all over the field and the Bucs passing on him was frustrating as he was more of a true joker defender than JTS ever was.
A lot of the players from that draft are still in the league. So the problem is that most of them were reaches a round or two early and the Bucs did not pursue value. Licht has improved since then looking for value (2nd round still is controversial round for Licht) and players with upside of being potential starters down the line (eg McCollum, Roberts).
A lot? 2?
Passing on Creed Humphrey was criminal knowing that the Bucs were not going to pay Cappa to stick around and still ended up using a draft pick later to address OL with Hainsey. It could be argued had the Seahawks drafted Humphrey they would not have needed to draft Zabel in the 2025 draft or the other interior OL in prior drafts A lot of teams really passed up Humphrey because they were not looking at the total value of the player and it cost them.
Koramoah was looked at a a true joker player that could be used to play all over the field and the Bucs passing on him was frustrating as he was more of a true joker defender than JTS ever was.
Technically we didn't pass on him in the 2nd. Would have been perfectly suitable to take him with the first pick.
I just cannot get over taking a project edge and backup QB with a chance to repeat.
Hainsey was fine then fucking Darden? Lmfao
A lot of the players from that draft are still in the league. So the problem is that most of them were reaches a round or two early and the Bucs did not pursue value. Licht has improved since then looking for value (2nd round still is controversial round for Licht) and players with upside of being potential starters down the line (eg McCollum, Roberts).
A lot? 2?
Since that draft:
Otton as a round 4 is a low end TE1/TE2. White as a round 3 pick emerged as a RB1 late in his Bucs career. Diaby as a late 3rd rounder is tier 2 starter now. Bucky Irving Jr. as a round 4 pick is projected RB1 now. T. Smith and J. McMillan both 3rd round picks are looking at significant starter reps. Tez Johnson and David Walker are to be determined but I wouldn't be surprised if they become borderline starting players or primary reserve players down the line. K Scott as a 4th rounder, Capehart as a 5th rounder and Schrauth as a 6th rounder could all become serviceable starters at some point.
A lot of the players from that draft are still in the league. So the problem is that most of them were reaches a round or two early and the Bucs did not pursue value. Licht has improved since then looking for value (2nd round still is controversial round for Licht) and players with upside of being potential starters down the line (eg McCollum, Roberts).
A lot? 2?
Since that draft:
Otton as a round 4 is a low end TE1/TE2. White as a round 3 pick emerged as a RB1 late in his Bucs career. Diaby as a late 3rd rounder is tier 2 starter now. Bucky Irving Jr. as a round 4 pick is projected RB1 now. T. Smith and J. McMillan both 3rd round picks are looking at significant starter reps. Tez Johnson and David Walker are to be determined but I wouldn't be surprised if they become borderline starting players or primary reserve players down the line. K Scott as a 4th rounder, Capehart as a 5th rounder and Schrauth as a 6th rounder could all become serviceable starters at some point.
I don't disagree with all that per se but also not blown away with it either.
Licht isn't bad but TIMELY all time stinker of a draft when we needed it most. Impact players...
The drafts since I would rate as a B.
A lot of the players from that draft are still in the league. So the problem is that most of them were reaches a round or two early and the Bucs did not pursue value. Licht has improved since then looking for value (2nd round still is controversial round for Licht) and players with upside of being potential starters down the line (eg McCollum, Roberts).
A lot? 2?
Since that draft:
Otton as a round 4 is a low end TE1/TE2. White as a round 3 pick emerged as a RB1 late in his Bucs career. Diaby as a late 3rd rounder is tier 2 starter now. Bucky Irving Jr. as a round 4 pick is projected RB1 now. T. Smith and J. McMillan both 3rd round picks are looking at significant starter reps. Tez Johnson and David Walker are to be determined but I wouldn't be surprised if they become borderline starting players or primary reserve players down the line. K Scott as a 4th rounder, Capehart as a 5th rounder and Schrauth as a 6th rounder could all become serviceable starters at some point.
I don't disagree with all that per se but also not blown away with it either.
Licht isn't bad but TIMELY all time stinker of a draft when we needed it most. Impact players...
The drafts since I would rate as a B.
Well if Bain and Scott become home run A+ super stars then it all changes for Licht.
A lot of the players from that draft are still in the league. So the problem is that most of them were reaches a round or two early and the Bucs did not pursue value. Licht has improved since then looking for value (2nd round still is controversial round for Licht) and players with upside of being potential starters down the line (eg McCollum, Roberts).
A lot? 2?
Since that draft:
Otton as a round 4 is a low end TE1/TE2. White as a round 3 pick emerged as a RB1 late in his Bucs career. Diaby as a late 3rd rounder is tier 2 starter now. Bucky Irving Jr. as a round 4 pick is projected RB1 now. T. Smith and J. McMillan both 3rd round picks are looking at significant starter reps. Tez Johnson and David Walker are to be determined but I wouldn't be surprised if they become borderline starting players or primary reserve players down the line. K Scott as a 4th rounder, Capehart as a 5th rounder and Schrauth as a 6th rounder could all become serviceable starters at some point.
I don't disagree with all that per se but also not blown away with it either.
Licht isn't bad but TIMELY all time stinker of a draft when we needed it most. Impact players...
The drafts since I would rate as a B.
Well if Bain and Scott become home run A+ super stars then it all changes for Licht.
Well yeah no shit... Bain was another layup but Scott was a great pick... Still far from a guarantee
I don't disagree with all that per se but also not blown away with it either.
Licht isn't bad but TIMELY all time stinker of a draft when we needed it most. Impact players...
The drafts since I would rate as a B.
I've stated this before but it's difficult to really assess Licht. He has 12 seasons with the team in which we could divide into three separate phases.
Phase 1 - Shit (2014-2017)
A new GM with the team but failed on the first coach in Lovie, and endured Koetter as second coach. The Bucs finished in last place in 3 out of the 4 seasons.
2014 - 2-14
2015 - 6-10
2016 - 9-7
2017 - 5-11
His first draft pick was his best draft pick in Mike Evans. Other solid selections include Donovan Smith and Ali Marpet in 2015 and Chris Godwin in 2017. Not great, hitting on just 4 of your 13 picks in the first 3 rounds.
i can't think of one free agent signing he hit on during this time either - Michael Johnson, Clinton McDonald, Alterrraun Verner, Robet Ayers, Brent Grimes, Desean Jackson, Chris Baker?
Phase 2 - Great (2018-2021)
Obviously having the GOAT helps but Licht has done well otherwise too. If not for his solid foundation of building the team, Brady likely doesnt choose us. This phase also saw 2 coaches with Arians replacing Koetter.
2018 - 5-11
2019 - 7-9
2020 - 11-5 (Super Bowl Champions)
2021 - 13-4 (Franchise Best in Wins)
Pretty solid drafting - Vita Vea, Ronald Jones, Carlton Davis, Alex Cappa, Jordan Whitehead, Devin White, SMB, Jamel Dean, Mike Edwards, Anthony Nelson, and Scottie Miller all contributors for the 2020 SuperBowl and all drafted in 2018 and 2019. Add in Wirfs and AWJ in 2020 and Licht was dominating drafts. 2021 draft was clearly a disaster from the start.
He did well in free agency as well. A solid trade for JPP in 2018 worked out well not to mention additions of Shaq Barrett and Ndamukong Suh along with the Brady boys in 2020 - Fournette, Gronk, AB.
It's this phase which truly clouds are judgement of Licht as we hope he can get back to these days.
Phase 3 - MID (2022-2025)
i mean the Bowles area in some ways exceeded expectations (2023/2024) and in other ways significantly disappointed (2022/2025). The law of averages are that it's been MID. and when you take Shit and Great in phases 1 and 2, Licht therefore....MID
2022 - 8-9, division winner
2023 - 9-8, division winner (first non Brady playoff win since 2002 season)
2024 - 10-7, division winner
2025 - 8-9, historical collapse to miss playoffs.
The 2022 free agent movies of Russell Gage, Julio Jones, Shaq Mason trade didnt really work out. Baker Mayfield addition was obviously one of Licht's best and a good value move as well. Haason Reddick didn't work out. The Bucs spent most of this phase resigning their own guys as not much external moves.
Hard to really tell with the draft. I mean theres guys that start for this team and drafted but really question if we can't do better - Logan Hall, Rachadd White, Cade Otton, Zyon McCollum. You have 1 really good pick in Luke Goedeke and solid pick in Yaya Diaby. You then have a bunch of guys where jury is still out but could be promising - Kancey, Mauch, Barton, Smith, McMillian, Bucky Irving, Edbuka, Morrison, and Parrish. And listen, i know some guys have had good rookie years or two years with us, but i lived through Michael Clayton, Cadillac Willaims, Justin Evans, and Kendall Beckwedth....and even Devin White....so yeah let's just give it a few more years. Sort of like 2018 and 2019 being shit years but the drafts helped us in futureyears.
Phase 4 - TBD (2026 - )
Not even worth mentioning yet but this will be critical. Get we get out of Mid? Do we cycle back to Shit....or do we skip Shit and get back to Great.
The Bucs spent most of this phase resigning their own guys as not much external moves.
the dominant aspect of phase 3, I think you're calling it.
The Bucs spent most of this phase resigning their own guys as not much external moves.
the dominant aspect of phase 3, I think you're calling it.
i mean again tough to tell. there's no doubt that 2022 to 2025 was more fun then 2014 to 2017 but in terms of overall NFL...we are mid.
The drafting well of 2018 through 2020 helped make it obvious to retain our own guys. Getting Baker at a bargain and proven to be a top 15 guy back in 2023, makes sense to re-sign him at the $33M a year. These all make sense
but also....could be a bad thing. look at this year.
You'd argue that Cade Otton was a good pick in the 4th round because he starts for us and earned a second contract. I'd argue while a solid pick in 4th round, he's not even a top 20 tight end...maybe fringe....so....could we not do better? So this was a situation where retaining our own guy was sort of a demerit.
Licht gets a pass in my eyes because of the Super Bowl. We are forever grateful for that...but how many other GMs survive those other 11 years with 7 of them being losing records.
You also have to note we are in the worst division in football. So while those .500 winning percentage division titles are nice, it was certainly a benefit.
in 2024, we were 10-7 and tied the Rams, Seattle for the 6th best record in the NFC.
in 2023, we were 9-8, and tied the Packers, Saints, and Seahawks for 6th best record in the NFC.
in 2022, we were 8-9, and tied the Packers for the 8th best record in the NFC.
Just imagine if there was 1 other half decent team in the division during that span. Hell, we got a little bit of taste of that last year with Carolina but i'd say last year was more about going 2-7 in the last 9 with 6 of those games being very winnable then it was the competition.
