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Week 15: Bucs Win If / Falcons Win If

ehinote · 2025-12-11T03:08:00Z

After starting the season 5-1, who would have predicted that this Thursday Night matchup against the Falcons would become a must-win for the Bucs? Since that strong start, the Bucs have struggled, going 2-5. It’s been a true Jekyll and Hyde season. Last week’s loss to the Saints marked my 10-3 record in predicting Bucs games, and it was the most disappointing of my misses. My confidence in picking a Bucs victory is at an all-time low, but let’s break down what each team needs to do to secure the “W”. BUCS WIN IF… Bucs on Offense: The Bucs offense has taken major steps backward. Injuries haven’t helped, but there seems to be something deeper at play. Baker Mayfield hasn’t looked sharp throwing the ball downfield for at least five games. My biggest concern at the start of the year with Josh Grizzard’s offense was its vertical dimension, which has never been one of Baker’s strengths. Ironically, our most effective play this year has been when Baker tucks the ball, escapes trouble, ducks his head, and runs for a first down. It’s sadly become our most consistently successful play. We’re seeing fewer instances where Baker gets into his drop and delivers the ball on time to find an open receiver. I’m not sure if he’s struggling to read the field, lacking confidence in the plays, or if his receivers just aren’t getting open, but he has missed opportunities. It’s time for Baker to start pushing the ball downfield, as this offense is stuck in neutral. I believe we’ll need to win in a shootout on Thursday night, and starting slowly is not an option. Our success will largely hinge on Baker’s arm. At least having Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan back on the field adds some much-needed firepower. Bucs on Defense: I’m feeling more negative about Bowles’ defense now than I ever have during his tenure in Tampa. The scheme, technical coaching, and talent all seem to be lacking. Kirk Cousins may not come into this game with any momentum, but the Bucs gave him two get-right games last year. If we thought Saints rookie Tyler Shough hurt us with passes over the middle, just wait… Cousins thrives on that. I usually have a defensive scheme in mind for these matchups, but right now, I’m at a loss. I don’t see us excelling in any area. Unless our pass rushers step up and apply more pressure, I’m not sure how we slow down the Falcons. Let’s hope Drake London is sidelined; if not, he could be a problem. I’m counting on Antoine Winfield Jr. to step up… aside from the game in New Orleans, he’s been largely invisible. Some of that is due to Bowles placing him in deep middle third coverage. Go ahead and bet the Over in this game. FALCONS WIN IF… Falcons on Offense: Bijan Robinson is the Falcons franchise, but for this game, they need to lean on Bucs’-killer, Kirk Cousins. They can put up 20+ points by halftime, if they throw 70% of the time or more on first down. The Bucs defense struggles against heavy early-down passing, so they should keep it simple and throw the ball. The Falcons can lean on Robinson in the 4th quarter to run down clock and wear the Bucs down in the fourth quarter. Falcons on Defense: The Falcons should be able to pressure Baker Mayfield. Their rookie edge rushers will eventually get to him if he continues holding the ball too long. They need to keep Mike Evans in check and contain Bucky Irving. Making the Bucs be patient and work down the field will be key. They should get plenty of support from their offense to give them a chance to pull this game out. FINAL WORD I’m all in on a Bucs win today, but it’s purely from the heart. This team is struggling right now and needs a victory to break free from this downward spiral. Let’s hope the Falcons do what they do best—blow games. We could use one of those moments now more than ever. Prediction: Bucs 30, Falcons 24

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Fire Derrangement Syndrome

(@fire-derrangement-syndrome)

Posts: 7916

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I hate watching this defense

Posted : Dec. 11, 2025 9:56 pm

Mic

(@mic)

Posts: 2179

Quartermaster

Thank god the falcons are undisciplined with these flags

Posted : Dec. 11, 2025 9:57 pm

Biggs3535

(@biggs3535)

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Posted by: @fire-derrangement-syndrome

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Posted by: @donkey_hunter

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Posted by: @fire-derrangement-syndrome

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I'm not sure why we won't QB sneak. I hate being at the 1 but he RB is at the 6

Qb size. Our interior line.

We weren't doing it at full strength. Do what other teams do with your TE on the sneak.

This issue is Barton is a undersized

Barton isn’t undersized at 6’5 & 314lbs. Creed Humphrey is 6’4 & 302. I get you don’t like Barton, but no need to make stuff up.

I wouldn’t sneak Mayfield. He’s small and is dealt with injuries already. They have a great short yardage back in White. Hell, any RB could have scored on that one.

Posted : Dec. 11, 2025 9:58 pm

ChadRico

(@chadrico)

Posts: 143

Master At Arms

Does Bowles call the same damn defensive play on every snap?!?!?! This defense is just awful

Posted : Dec. 11, 2025 9:58 pm

ChadRico

(@chadrico)

Posts: 143

Master At Arms

Its crazy they cant get Cousins on the ground, just insane

Posted : Dec. 11, 2025 9:59 pm

Mic

(@mic)

Posts: 2179

Quartermaster

Posted by: @fire-derrangement-syndrome

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I hate watching this defense

A defense I love watching is the Texans always hitting always making things hard. suffocating. Borderline demoralizing knowing you have to go out on offense

This post was modified 11 months ago by Mic

Posted : Dec. 11, 2025 9:59 pm

ChadRico reacted

Trask Force

(@catherder)

Posts: 2983

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not enough pressure n 3rd

Posted : Dec. 11, 2025 10:00 pm

GottaCoachItBetter

(@donkey_hunter)

Posts: 7425

Captain

Miscommunication bails us out.

Take it.

Posted : Dec. 11, 2025 10:01 pm

Fire Derrangement Syndrome

(@fire-derrangement-syndrome)

Posts: 7916

Captain

Stupid McCollum

Posted : Dec. 11, 2025 10:01 pm

DEBUCSOWN

(@debucsown)

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Bad call

Posted : Dec. 11, 2025 10:02 pm

GottaCoachItBetter

(@donkey_hunter)

Posts: 7425

Captain

Posted by: @donkey_hunter

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Miscommunication bails us out.

Take it.

Nevermind.

Lol.

Posted : Dec. 11, 2025 10:02 pm

Biggs3535

(@biggs3535)

Posts: 4116

Captain

What a well coached football team

Posted : Dec. 11, 2025 10:02 pm

Trask Force

(@catherder)

Posts: 2983

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omg

Posted : Dec. 11, 2025 10:02 pm

BadabingBucs

(@badabingbucs)

Posts: 5175

Captain

Can we cut zyon in January?

Posted : Dec. 11, 2025 10:02 pm

Mic

(@mic)

Posts: 2179

Quartermaster

how can you be so dumb to give a first down on 4th and 4

Posted : Dec. 11, 2025 10:02 pm

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Week 15: Bucs Win If / Falcons Win If

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