Welcome to Week 4. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are still looking for their first win of the 2026 season, and this week they will be doing it with an undrafted rookie free agent at quarterback. Jalon Daniels gets his first career regular season start on Sunday against a Packers team that is not exactly setting the league on fire either. This game is winnable. It is also a very large wall to climb. Here is how I see both teams setting themselves up for victory.
BUCS WIN IF...
Offense: Scheme an Early Shot and Run the Football
Let's be honest about the situation. Undrafted rookie free agent quarterbacks are something like 1-8 in their first NFL starts recently. The idea of Jalon Daniels riding in and saving this season is a wonderful thought. It is not a particularly realistic one. But it is the hand the Buccaneers are playing this week, so let's figure out the best way to play it.
The one thing Zac Robinson has done consistently well through three weeks is scripting an explosive shot downfield early in games. Against the Bengals he got Emeka Egbuka open on a deep go route that Baker Mayfield underthrew. Against the Browns he found another open receiver downfield that Baker missed. Against the Vikings he called a beautiful shot down the middle of the field to Ted Hurst for an early touchdown. Robinson has now demonstrated three consecutive weeks that he can scheme a receiver open deep early in a game.
The question this week is whether Jalon Daniels can make the throw that Baker Mayfield has been missing. If Robinson can dial up that early shot and Daniels delivers, it immediately changes the dynamic of the entire game. It backs the Packers' defense off,
Beyond the deep shot, the running game has to be the foundation of everything the Buccaneers do offensively on Sunday. The Packers have been unable to stop the run through the first three weeks of the season. That is not a minor detail. That is the single biggest opportunity on the entire scouting report. If the Buccaneers truly want a chance to win this football game, Bucky Irving and Kenny Gainwell need to combine for over 130 yards on the ground. There is no excuse for not running the ball effectively against this Packers run defense. None.
Defense: Stop the Pass, Force Jordan Love Into Mistakes
The last time these two teams met was in 2024, and Baker Mayfield pulled out one of his best performances of the season in a shootout win. The defense couldn't slow down Jordan Love and the Packers' offense that day, but the offense was good enough to outscore them. That luxury is not available this week with a rookie quarterback taking snaps. This defense has to be significantly better than it was in that 2024 game.
The good news is that if the Packers want to come out pounding the run on first down the way the Vikings attempted last week, Todd Bowles' defense will be in excellent shape. Nobody who understands Bowles' defensive system tries to beat it by running the ball on early downs. That is where his scheme is at its absolute best. Here is hoping Green Bay has not done their homework on that particular tendency.
This week we need David Walker to find the quarterback for two sacks. We need Calijah Kancey to make his presence felt with a sack of his own. And Antoine Winfield Jr. needs to make a genuine splash play to generate momentum and keep this team in the game. Jordan Love will put the ball in harm's way at times. The Buccaneers' defense needs to convert those mistakes into turnovers and points.
PACKERS WIN IF...
Offense: Attack Early With Play Action and Let Love Roll
Head coach Matt LaFleur and needs to come out attacking the Buccaneers' defense with play action on early downs from the very first series. Let Jordan Love roll out, get outside the pocket, and attack the edges of this defense in space. Tight end Tucker Kraft should give the Buccaneers real problems in the middle of the field. The Bucs have now given up significant yardage to opposing tight ends in each of the first three games of the season, and Kraft is talented enough to exploit that chronic vulnerability.
LaFleur will have some timely designed run plays ready. If the Packers execute their early down plan cleanly and get Love into rhythm quickly, they should be putting 20 or more points on the board before this game reaches the fourth quarter.
Defense: Load the Box and Make Daniels Beat You
The Packers' run defense has been their biggest weakness through three weeks, struggling to stop opposing running backs consistently. But here is the adjustment Green Bay's coaching staff can make this week that they could not make against other opponents: with an undrafted rookie quarterback starting for Tampa Bay, the Packers can load the box, commit more defenders to stopping the run, and simply dare Jalon Daniels to beat them through the air.
Throw A-gap blitzes at the Buccaneers' interior offensive line, which has already been exposed as a significant vulnerability by Brian Flores and the Vikings. Get Daniels off his spot early, create uncomfortable situations, and force a first-year player to make NFL-level decisions under pressure in a hostile environment. If the Packers can limit the Buccaneers' running game and get Daniels into third-and-long situations consistently, the game should never be in serious doubt.
FINAL WORD
This game sets up as a potential turnaround moment for whichever team is able to capitalize on the other's vulnerabilities. The Buccaneers have a real opportunity against a Packers team that is not playing particularly inspiring football through three weeks. A healthy running game, an early explosive play, and a defense that finally forces some punts could give Tampa Bay a genuine chance.
But the reality of the situation is hard to ignore. An 0-3 team starting an undrafted rookie quarterback on the road against a team desperate for a confidence-building win. That is a significant wall to climb regardless of how you frame it.
Prediction: Packers WIN 27-13
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I dont see anyway the Bucs can with this game with an undrafted rookie first start at QB.
Preseason and regular season are two different animals
Packers look bad, Bucs look bad
i had this game as a loss even with Baker playing
that said, i had us at 3-0 so maybe reversal happens!
a two touchdown difference seems about right but only hope would be something clicking for Daniels. Doesn't help that Bucky is banged up.
Jalon is willing to throw daggers in the face of pressure. I think if the Packers blitz him it would be a mistake and Jalon will make them pay with his arm or legs as he isn't afraid of letting it rip. What Jalon will struggle with is if Robinson calls a lot of short routes and the Packers just squat these routes or flood the field with 7 man zone drops.
I do agree that Robinson has dialed up the correct deep shot to keep defenses honest from squatting the short routes. I think Jalon has the arm strength to do it but the problem is these WRs and TEs have to CATCH the ball.
Irving Jr needs to have Tucker and KG more involved. Create a three headed monster on the ground, take shots with Godwin, Edbuka and Hurst. Lets Tez and K. Johnson cook underneath with shorter routes.
Defensively we need the Bucs DBs to force turnovers so the Bucs can turn those into field goals and maybe a TD or two.
Packers suck hard core against the run... Bucky should have 15 carries 100 yards and 2 TDs, and Gainwell should compliment that with some good production of his own...
If he can call a good game. I'd like to see the RPO
Packers 24 - Bucs 13
Packers suck hard core against the run... Bucky should have 15 carries 100 yards and 2 TDs, and Gainwell should compliment that with some good production of his own...
If he can call a good game. I'd like to see the RPO
id like to see some RPO also to utilize the speed Daniels brings to the QB position , but I have a feeling that the Packers are going to load the box and blitz the middle of the line playing the run on the way to the QB… the Packers are well aware of how weak their run defense is, so I’m sure they’re making it a point of emphasis this week. I hope I’m wrong but we may be hearing another presser on Monday with Bowles saying “we felt running it 30+ times was a recipe for success, and we did exactly what we wanted to do, when you win ts not questioned, but when you lose you’re right there” just like after the panthers game last year
Packers 38
Bucs 10
