Week 7 and the Buccaneers are already in do-or-die territory. Some fans still see hope, pointing to a favorable remaining division schedule and the possibility of going 8-3 over the final eleven games. That is the equivalent of asking a baseball team to go 76-29 over their last 105 games. After going 3-12 over their last fifteen regular season games, it is a very tall order. But hey, there is a chance.
Both teams know each other well. Panthers head coach Dave Canales spent time in Tampa as offensive coordinator in 2023. He knows Bowles. Bowles knows him. Carolina has looked genuinely dangerous at times this season while also looking very much like the Carolina Panthers at other times. Here is how both teams set themselves up for victory Sunday.
BUCS WIN IF...
Bucs on Offense: Baker Must Be Healthy and Robinson Must Be Flexible
Baker Mayfield must play and must be fully healthy. Not Baker managing a game with a compromised throwing hand. If he cannot throw at full strength, hand the keys back to Daniels. A limited Baker is not necessarily better than a healthy rookie.
The bigger issue is Zac Robinson's approach. Through six weeks Robinson has gone all-in on one or two concepts per game and ridden them into the ground. Fifteen screens one week, zero the next. Run on every first down one game, abandon the run entirely the next. That is not a balanced offensive philosophy. This week the Panthers require a multi-level attack. Run Bucky Irving inside and outside. Get the ball to Godwin on intermediate routes consistently. With Egbuka out, lean on Hurst's size and catch radius downfield and Johnson's quickness across the middle. Attack every level of the defense. Be flexible, Zac.
Bucs on Defense: Make the Panthers One Dimensional
The Panthers have put up big numbers this season including 37 against the Bears, 34 against the Falcons, and 32 against the Lions. But they build everything off the run game, and the Buccaneers own one of the best run defenses in the NFL. Take away Chuba Hubbard early, force Carolina into obvious passing situations, and Bryce Young loses the RPO looks that make him most dangerous.
Keep generating pressure with the front four the way they did for three quarters against the Steelers. Tighter Panthers formations this week should help Bowles disguise blitz packages better. Give me a Trotter sack, a Walker sack, and a Parrish interception. That is the formula.
PANTHERS WIN IF...
Panthers on Offense: Get Hubbard Going and Unleash McMillan
Establish Chuba Hubbard in the run game and let Young work off RPO action. Young gets the ball out fast, which partially neutralizes an inconsistent pass rush. The biggest mismatch in this game is wide receiver Tetairra McMillan. McMillan can win at every level of the route tree and is a nightmare matchup for any corner. Get him the football early and often.
Panthers on Defense: Let Derrick Brown Eat
The Panthers defense has been up and down through it’s first 5 games. They gave up 59 to the Bears in week 1, but then held the Falcons to 3 in week 2. Even with Baker Mayfield probably back to start for the Bucs, this defense should best it’s 24.6 points per game allowed.
Linebacker Devin Lloyd has been outstanding this season with 35 tackles and two interceptions through five games. He will be disruptive all afternoon. And defensive tackle Derrick Brown, who already has five sacks on the season, should feast against the interior of this Buccaneers offensive line. That matchup alone could define how this game plays out.
FINAL WORD
Remember last year when Bowles said teams who run 30 times against the Panthers tend to win? The Bucs got to 33 rushing attempts that day. And lost 23-20 with only 145 passing yards. A ridiculous pregame statement that became an even more ridiculous game plan. Classic Bowles. Keep it close. Lose anyway.
Prediction: Bucs LOSE 27-17
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The bigger issue is Zac Robinson's approach. Through six weeks Robinson has gone all-in on one or two concepts per game and ridden them into the ground.
Glad you posted that because that is exactly the weirdness I see when I watch it. Today we are throwing short. Today we are throwing long. Today we are running ...
Bucs can win this if they don't screw it up.
Basically if the run defense holds the DBs just have to play their marks. Tet and Coker are the only players that can do damage downfield and that goes away if their running game is bottled up. Tremble and Waller can do damage but they can be limited too if the play action is not there to be exploited and they are forced to be in line blockers.
Evero is going to throw the kitchen sink against an OL that can't handle stunts and the Panthers DBs are good enough to bottle up the Bucs WR and TE group. So it comes down to the Bucs running game out shining Carolina's to secure the win.
It is possible that some Mayfield magic catches Caroline off guard with Tez or Hurst. But the same can be said with Coker sitting in Bowles soft zone and splitting the safeties deep.
Bucs should eek out a win but if they play undisciplined football Carolina is going to light up the scoreboard and this offense will not be able to keep up.
If Robinson is smart he sets up the play action to trick the rookie defenders in Carolina's secondary.
Keep generating pressure with the front four the way they did for three quarters against the Steelers.
Young has been outstanding against the blitz this year.
Is this the week that Walker sees a significant jump in his snaps?
Or, has he not become an efficient coverage player yet?
I just saw baker is playing? First division game of the season should be interesting. Funny how were still technically close to the division lead but man I don't want to go into that again. Bowles would be our hc forever. Just lose...
Is this the week that Walker sees a significant jump in his snaps?
Lol nah fuck that guy
”hE dOeSn’T pLaY tHe rUn wElL”
can the offense put up 23 points?
they do that, I think they take this game
can the offense put up 23 points?
they do that, I think they take this game
may need a little more than that lol
"Five games into their season, the Panthers are averaging 29.2 points per game and scored 16 offensive touchdowns. That's a far cry from last season's 2-3 start, when Canales's squad managed only 20.4 points per contest and 11 offensive TDs. Offensive coordinator Brad Idzik's has certainly made a difference."
"If the league office has a favorite team, it’s currently the Buccaneers. Every week, their games remain exciting because they’re undecided down to the end.
Tampa Bay has a current streak of 12 straight one-score games. Via NBC Sports research, it’s tied for the third-longest streak of one-score games since the merger.
The 1989-90 Chargers had a 14-game streak, and the 2014-15 Ravens had a 13-game streak.
The bad news for the Bucs is that they’re 3-9 in those games — and 1-5 on the season. They’ll get quarterback Baker Mayfield back today in Carolina; he missed three games with a dislocated thumb suffered in Week 3 against the Vikings.
The good news for the Bucs is that, since 2020, they’re 10-2 against the Panthers."
jinxed by PFT
The bad news for the Bucs is that they’re 3-9 in those games — and 1-5 on the season
Great stat to demonstrate how bad Bowles is... Bad teams find ways to lose.
The bad news for the Bucs is that they’re 3-9 in those games — and 1-5 on the season
Great stat to demonstrate how bad Bowles is... Bad teams find ways to lose.
agreed
it would be interesting to see a break down of how those games played out. Some of them have to be the bend/dont break
Otton and Bredeson on the block
If we can run we have a chance
