All Twenty-Tuesday: QB Jameis Winston

In last week’s Cover 3, we went into all the details of defensive coverages. We talked about coverage shells, when to use them and what players it takes to make each work. Aside from it being nice to know all of that information on its own, the reason I wanted to go through everything we could was to transition into this week’s film review, and that is, Jameis Winston in his pre-snap reads.

There has always been this narrative around Winston that he was a player who not only *could* make all the throws, but *wanted* to make all the throws. This led to some incredible highlight reels and big-time plays during his time at Florida State, and even into his young career as a Buccaneer. But, this is also what has been the source of much of his trouble. When you try to make every throw, some of them aren’t going to go as planned. Best case scenario can’t be the basis for most decisions.

But can one exists without the other? This has been something that even Buccaneers head coach, Dirk Koetter, has admitted as true and is also a delicate situation. You don’t want to coach the competitiveness out of Winston. There are times, especially for a team that aspires to win a championship, that a quarterback just goes for a throw in a split-second of decision-making where probability says that’s not a good idea, but the talent prevails and a spectacular play is made.

Two notable cases in point from last year were Winston’s 39-yard completion to Mike Evans against Chicago in which he dodged six would-be Bears sackers, and a desperation 42-yard touchdown heave to Adam Humphries at Dallas.

Teams need those types of plays; the Bucs need them. But, on the flip side, if you turn the football over, you won’t win many football games. Koetter knows both cases to be true.

There is great potential in Winston’s arm, and I mean that in both a positive and a negative. When Winston unleashes his arm, his weapon, the entire outcome hangs in its balance. When I think of such potential, such swinging presence, I can’t help but be reminded of a super hero many know and love.

Marvel’s God of Thunder – Thor.

When you think about Winston and Thor, they look nothing alike, minus maybe both of them being tall. Winston doesn’t have the long flowing golden hair like Thor does or the outfit or even the body type, even as a professional athlete. But, there are two things that Thor and Winston share in common that help us make sense of where Winston is in his career and where he still has yet to go. Those two things they share are a weapon (for Thor, it’s Mjolnir, his hammer, and for Winston, his throwing arm) and a mindset. Because of this, they might also share similar paths in their stories.

I’m sure most of you have seen the movie Thor (the first one, the one that matters), or read the comics, but for those who haven’t, or it’s been a long time, here’s a little synopsis. In the beginning of the story, Thor is about to be formally recognized as the crown prince of Asgard, his mystical homeland. Before Odin, his father and Asgard’s ruler, can make it official, alarms go off as someone or something is trying to steal Jotens’ power casket (a power source that can be used for evil).

Marvel’s Thor

The danger is averted, but Thor is angry and wants to attack the people who tried to steal it. Odin forbids him. But, Thor doesn’t listen, goes to the Frost Giants’ planet, Jötunheim, with a few of his friends and begins to throw down in revenge, believing they could take on any foe, regardless of number or power. After killing what had to be hundreds of Frost Giants in three minutes, Thor and his friends are surrounded, but Odin arrives to save the day; he apologizes to the Frost King, but it’s too late. Thor’s ignorant actions have brought war upon Asgard.

So, back to Winston. As weird as it is to say, Thor’s mindset where he thought he could take on an entire nation of people with him and a few friends is pretty spot on to how Winston played football in the early parts of his career. At Florida State, Winston didn’t care about defensive players, or, at least, it didn’t seem like it. Winston’s positive mindset of, “I believe in my guys, we can beat anyone in the nation” won him all but one game with the Seminoles, but got him in trouble, at times, because he trusted things too much; he trusted them beyond the context of the situation. That led to a few bad habits and bad results.

The clip above was one example of that. Winston should have known it was zone coverage and what type of zone coverage. He should have known the linebacker was staring right at him and was moving with the eventual target. But, he didn’t. You know why? He wasn’t focused on them. To him, it didn’t matter. It should have.

Now, I don’t want to be too hard on things from Florida State, because, for one, it’s tape from over three years ago, and two, coaches don’t really teach players at the collegiate level like we think they do. They’re there to get the most talent out of these young kids to win games and win titles.

FSU’s Jimbo Fisher is one of the better ones, and I’m sure Winston was coached some to recognize defenses, but most of what you’re taught at the college level is mastering what you do on offense. Even though Winston showed at a young age he could read and write plays, in his youth, he didn’t show that as consistently on the field as some people would expect from a No. 1 overall pick (and also why he wouldn’t bother to fool them, telegraphing passes with his eyes).

The play directly above was another example. Against Quarter-Quarter-Half, which is Cover 6, Winston had a clean pocket. He saw the players disperse to their zones, but he either didn’t care or didn’t care enough to know how that would counter what his own guys were doing. In college you can kind of get away with being on the better team and just saying “us versus them and we’ll win.”

In the NFL, that doesn’t fly.

The play above is of Winston’s first career pass, and the reason I chose it as an example is to show that things don’t magically just get better when you get to the next level, or even with time. Who Winston was as a quarterback at Florida State, in his natural state, told us what he really needed to work on in his early years as a Buc, and at the rate he may be able to work on it.

In the clip above, it’s was more of the same attitude that got Winston in trouble in college. In it, he should have known it was man coverage, there was even motion before the snap that gave that away. But, regardless, he stared down his receiver and threw the ball, assuming the defensive back wasn’t going to be fast enough or that his receiver could just separate.

It failed him.

But, we all know that Winston today is not the same player he was when he made that first career pass. So, what’s different? You can’t just say, “Well, he has more experience.” Time isn’t what makes you a better player. It’s what you do with it. Naturally, Winston’s two biggest areas that needed improvement as a passer have always been: over confidence and accuracy. The first we’ll hit this week, and the next we’ll go over in-depth next week.

As we’ve already talked about, over confidence has led Winston to make some poor decision, not only in which throws he makes, but what he does before the throw, too. One of the biggest gripes with Winston is when he stares down receivers. In college, it was almost like he didn’t think it mattered. Again, it seemed like he didn’t prioritize thinking about what the defense was going to do, and instead just focused on what his guys could control on their side. In reality, he was the one who could have controlled what the defense did, too.

The first NFL play of his interception showed him staring down a receiver in year one. The second clip, the one directly above, showed improvement of him with total command of the offense and knowing where to go with the ball, but still left some to be desired in the little things.

In the touchdown play above to Cameron Brate in that Dallas game, Winston showed great command and placement of his weapon (his arm). However, the difference between a good quarterback and playoff quarterback is in the details.

Winston saw that it was man coverage. He identified the defense close to their assignments with the goal line in sight, and knew where his receiver could win. But, I would argue he could have made that score even easier. When he hiked the ball, he didn’t exactly look off that looming safety, and if the safety would have been just a little faster, that touchdown wouldn’t have happened.

What Winston really needs to work on and be more consistent with is still not staring down receivers, or, better yet, respecting the defense and what it’s capable of. This is much like what Thor had to go through when he realized his selfish actions got others in trouble. It wasn’t until he saw those consequences that he could finally be humbled and learn from them. Winston’s arm and placement have come a long way, but it’s time for his eyes to do the same.

This is what it looks like when it all comes together. And when I say, “it all” I mean when confidence exists, but there’s still respect for the defense (the perfect Winston balance). In the NFL, you have to respect defenses. For the first time in his life – mostly due to him just being better than everyone else for most of his life – I think we saw Winston truly respect defenses in 2016, and he had some great throws because of it.

In the play above, the ball was hiked to Winston, and he immediately looked to his right. His eyes stayed there for just a second, and then it was over to the left where he knew he was going to go with the ball. Because his eyes weren’t locked there at the start, as we’ve often seen from him, the safety couldn’t get a jump on the pass and was too late to help a mismatch in favor of former Bucs tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins.

Once you respect a defense, you can start manipulating it, and I think that’s where we are on the Winston timeline. With the arsenal of offensive weapons the team has surrounded him with in Year 3, look for the offense to make things even better him by putting players in motion before the snap and identifying coverages in the pre-snap read and watching Winston be more cerebral. Once he knows what he’s going to see from a defense (and what they can do from it), he can use his eyes better and try to eliminate one of his few major flaws.

Before, I believe Winston was simply identifying a defense to know what was going to happen to his main target (where he was going regardless). Now, the next step is for him to know the defense in order to better manipulate it, not just to get his main target open, but maybe even a better option – which he’s doing.

It wasn’t until Thor had his powers stripped from him and was humbled that he could achieve his true potential – getting the most out of himself and his weapon. He had to respect his enemy and what they were capable of in order to outsmart them and out-muscle them.

This is also true of Winston, who needs to cut down his interceptions – he’s thrown 33 in his first two years. If he can pare last year’s 18 picks in half, that would be a great start. PewterReport.com’s Scott Reynolds recently referenced how Year 3 is typically the year that happens for great quarterbacks.

Right now Winston is in the flirting with Natalie Portman (the actress who played Jane, Thor’s love interest) stage of the plot. I’m sure Bucs fans wish they could fast forward a bit, but the journey of a franchise quarterback takes time. How much time exactly depends on where they’ve come from.

Now you know.