Cover 3 is a weekly feature column written by PewterReport.com’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat writer Trevor Sikkema published every Tuesday. The column, as its name suggests, comes in three phases: a statistical observation, an in-depth film breakdown, and a “this or that” segment where the writer asks the reader to chose between two options.
Sikkema’s Stat of the Week
The 2018 NFL Draft is just two weeks away, can you believe that?
I’m sure some of you are saying “Yes!” to the tone of excitement for what is to come, and I’m sure others are saying “Yes!” in a way that perfectly encapsulates your frustration from all these draft articles so we can get on with it and find out which players are going to be Buccaneers and analyze how they could help this team in 2018.
Whichever side of the fence you’re on, unfortunately we haven’t reached draft weekend yet, but, on the bright side, this is a good time to learn some last-minute information on which players could end up in red and pewter.
Bucs head coach Dirk Koetter and GM Jason Licht – Photo courtesy of the Buccaneers
This also a good time for teams to put out smokescreens of who they might be interested in. Yes, we know that happens every year, and 2018 is no different. But, the draft process is still what it is, and interest from teams throughout the college football season, into the Senior Bowl and into the NFL Scouting Combine all come to a culmination when teams choose to give one of their precious 30 private visits to a prospect during the month leading up to the draft. If you don’t know how that works, I’ll explain.
Each team is allowed 30 private visits each draft season. These 30 visits could be used on any player of any position from any school. However, there are such things as local visits, which have the same function as a private visit, but are players from local universities or those who grew up in the surrounding area. These private visits are different than private workouts.
A workout is where a coach and a scout, or member of an organization either goes to a player’s school or attends their pro day and puts them through their own drills. An official private visit is something that usually takes a couple hours at a team’s facility and could include meeting with some of the coaches, scouts or decision makers. These visits are used more to see what kind of fit the player would be as a person with the organization, to answer any character questions or concerns or to put them in the film room to glimpse at their football I.Q. more than a judgment of their ability. However, if a prospect gets to that point with a team, it’s obvious they’re already a fan of their ability anyways.
Here are the players the Bucs have put through private workouts so far.
NAME | POS | SCHOOL | HT | WT |
Austin Allen | QB | Arkansas | 6-0 | 210 |
Austin Corbett | OT | Nevada | 6-4 | 306 |
Minkah Fitzpatrick | CB/S | Alabama | 6-0 | 204 |
Josh Frazier | DL | Alabama | 6-4 | 315 |
Derrius Guice | RB | LSU | 5-10 | 224 |
Will Hernandez | OG | UTEP | 6-2 | 327 |
Nyheim Hines | RB | N.C. State | 5-8 | 198 |
Jamar King | DT | Alabama | 6-3 | 290 |
Mike Love | EDGE | USF | 6-3 | 215 |
Kendrick Norton | DT | Miami | 6-3 | 314 |
Braden Smith | OG | Auburn | 6-6 | 315 |
Tre'Quan Smith | WR | UCF | 6-2 | 203 |
Chad Thomas | EDGE | Miami | 6-5 | 281 |
Mark Walton | RB | Miami | 5-9 | 202 |
When a player goes through a private workout you know there is interest involved, but for whatever reason they either didn’t see or didn’t see enough of something in a player’s tape that they would want to have on their team. Sometimes it could be flipping from one side of the field to another. Other times it could be to see how quickly a player picks up coaching knowing they’re going to either groom him a certain way or have them switch a position.
Whatever it is, a team wants to have more time with that player on the field before making their final decision about them.
Then, on the other hand, there are the private visits, which we’ve explained have a deeper dive into the potential relationship of a team and a prospect.
These are the private visits that we know the Bucs have had so far in 2018.
(We will continue to update this list up until draft weekend.)
NAME | POS | SCHOOL | HT | WT |
Jaire Alexander | CB | Louisville | 5-10 | 196 |
Taven Bryan | DT | Florida | 6-5 | 291 |
Bradley Chubb | DE | N.C. State | 6-4 | 269 |
Nick Chubb | RB | Georgia | 5-10 | 227 |
Minkah Fitzpatrick | CB/S | Alabama | 6-0 | 204 |
Ryan Green (local) | RB | FSU | 5-10 | 204 |
P.J. Hall | DT | Sam Houston State | 6-1 | 310 |
Will Hernandez | OG | UTEP | 6-2 | 327 |
Mike Hughes | CB | UCF | 5-10 | 189 |
Donte Jackson | CB | LSU | 5-10 | 178 |
Josh Jackson | CB | Iowa | 6-0 | 196 |
Derwin James | S | FSU | 6-1 | 215 |
Justin Lawler | DE | SMU | 6-4 | 240 |
Mike McGlinchey | OT | Notre Dame | 6-8 | 310 |
Quenton Nelson | OG | Notre Dame | 6-5 | 325 |
Rashaad Penny | RB | San Diego State | 5-11 | 220 |
Eddy Pineiro (local) | K | Florida | 5-11 | 185 |
Vita Vea | DT | Washington | 6-4 | 347 |
Armani Watts | S | Texas A&M | 5-10 | 202 |
So, what does all this mean? How likely is it that the Bucs even pick one of these guys? Is a player taking a private visit an indicator of a true connection between the player and team? The answer to that question varies between each organization and those who call the shots, but, for the Buccaneers, history tells us there’s about a 1-in-5 shot for each of these players, no matter the round.
From 2012 to 2016, the Bucs had 39 draft picks. Per Inside the Pylon, eight of those draft picks were brought in for private visits, and two additional private visit players were signed as undrafted free agents. That gave the Bucs a 20.51 percent private visit-to-player selected ratio. Some teams are much higher. For example, the Steelers had nearly half of their selected players in for private visits during that time. The Bills, the Falcons and the Cowboys were next, all above 30 percent.
Bucs general manager Jason Licht hasn’t been in Tampa Bay since 2012. His hands have only been controlling Tampa Bay’s drafts since 2014. However, even last year he drafted wide receiver Chris Godwin after having him in for a pre-draft visit, and did the same with safety Justin Evans. That’s 33 percent (2-of-6) of their selections last year coming from the pre-draft visit list.
So, even if it’s not a dead giveaway, the Bucs don’t usually do this whole private visit thing for a smokescreen or a guy they’re not going to go after with a decent amount of aggression. This isn’t just in the first round or even for trade back scenarios, either. The Bucs do their homework on guys they’ll target throughout the draft.
Click to the next page to see which round each of the players on the 2018 private visit list are expected to get drafted in and how their skills could fit above the rest in a Buccaneers uniform.
