Predicting The Final 53

All right, let’s talk about it.

If there was any untouchable position on the team, it’s Winston’s starting spot as the franchise quarterback. After becoming the first quarterback ever to throw for back-to-back 4,000 yards in his first two seasons, Winston is poised to continue that trend and make it three in a row. The narratives around Winston are that he turns the ball over too much and has trouble with consistent accuracy. In 2017, it will all be on him to correct that. The players, the coaches and the game plan will all be tailored to him like never before.

I think Fitzpatrick ends up being the back up for this team simply because he has the arm that Griffin does not. If Winston goes down for the year, the season is done. But, if you need a quarterback who can throw to win you games (which the game plan will firmly be by then), I think you need Fitzpatrick for that. However, if Martin comes back and regains his form as a Top 5 running back in the league, then you might be able to afford to get away with Griffin as the safer play.

I have Martin on the depth chart just because it’s a visual to keep his spot there. In reality, he isn’t going to be there for the first three weeks, and I would guess Barber would be called up to fill in the bottom of the depth chart. If McNichols for some reason cannot go by that time, either, Hansbrough would be my next man up. Also, I do not expect this team to keep a fullback.

Bucs WR Derel Walker – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Getting to the wide receiver group I sort out what is the first of many tough decisions to trim down. There’s quite a bit of talent on the Bucs’ 90-man roster, especially at receiver, but ultimately I think they go with a proven outside receiver (Walker) as opposed to one of the younger, quicker ones. I think Sperbeck and Wilson can both play in reserve roles in this league, so if they keep one, it wouldn’t surprise me. I just think that knowing the nature of Koetter’s offense (pushing the ball vertically to the outside), they’ll go with Walker as long as he performs during camp.

I have the Buccaneers keeping four tight ends, but depending on how many defensive players they keep, they could even afford to keep five, if they play well. The four I chose are the obvious ones before you get into more of a talent drop off that would be just for depth. I think Auclair presents the best pass catching ability of the reserve tight ends, and for that, I think he’ll not only make the squad, but also be the third tight end on the depth chart. The coaches like him a lot.

For the offensive line, their big change is getting Sweezy back and moving Marpet to center. Marpet was one of the best interior offensive linemen in the NFL last year, and the Bucs are hoping that he has an Alex Mack-like effect on the line like Mack did in Atlanta last year. Pamphile is in a contract year, so the team will do what they need to to see what they have in him and if he’s worth re-signing. It’s also a make-or-break year for tackles Dotson and Smith. Both players were two of the top three most penalized players in the NFL last season, and their play must pick up if team is to get where they want to go.

On the defensive side of the ball things can go a few different directions, but the list have above is how I see it playing out.

Bucs DEs Noah Spence & Jacquies Smith – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

On the edge, the technical “starters” each game are likely going to be the run stopping guys in Ayers and Gholston since most teams run the ball on their first play. However, expect to see plenty of action from both Spence and Smith on the outside as the speed rushers. Having a consistent speed presence off the edge was something this team lacked last season, and defensive coordinator Mike Smith has talked about ways to get more production out of that approach. It could also come in the form of playing some 304 formations of Spence and Smith as outside linebackers. That’s why I think Tu’ikolovatu ultimately makes this team. His size, speed and overall ability to take up blocks would give them the luxury to move to a 3-4 when they wanted to.

Speaking of that, I expect McCoy and Baker to man the middle, but don’t be surprised if McDonald gets his starts, too. The Buccaneers wanted to get bigger on the inside this offseason, and that’s why I have them keeping the most defensive linemen of the depth chart. The more big bodies they have, the more versatile they can be in terms of defensive fronts because they know they can always stop the run if they need to.

That brings us to the linebackers. David and Alexander aren’t going anywhere, and I believe Bond will be the starting 4-3 base SAM linebacker to start the year. Though I think the team is keeping Beckwith, I don’t think he will be ready for the season, so his spot will likely be open as he may be on the PUP list. If that’s the case, you can throw Lynch in his spot. They really don’t need more than five unless they want more as a preference for special teams.

At cornerback, Hargreaves and Grimes will be the full-time outside starters with Smith as the main (and only) backup. That leaves Adjei-Barimah to start at nickel, which means the backup spot could go one of two ways. Either they can keep McClain, who they signed and use him as the back up there and possibly at outside cornerback, or they can keep Elliott as the main backup at nickel. Here’s the Catch-22 for all that. McClain is not practice squad eligible. So, if the team really wants Elliott on the roster, that means they have no rights over McClain. Elliott still is practice squad eligible, but if the Bucs left him on the practice squad, they run the risk of another team signing him. I say they’re going to keep Elliott.

Bucs FS Justin Evans – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

As for the safeties, five is probably more than you expected, but think about it logically. The two starters aren’t going anywhere. Unless Wilcox bombs this training camp, they’re going to want a big-hitting run stopper in reserve. They’re also not going to cut Evans, who they drafted in the second round, and aren’t going to let Robinson, Tampa Bay’s special teams ace, go either. So, because of that, all five are staying, which makes things tighter in other parts of the depth chart.

As for the kicking game, Sanborn will stay at long snapper, Anger will keep punting, and, yes, I think Aguayo wins the kicking battle in camp and gets the nod. The reason I say that is because as OTAs ended, Augayo went a perfect 7-for-7 at varying distances throughout the week while Folk missed one of his kicks. Let me say that if Aguayo goes back to be any sort of shaky in camp, I think they’ll give it to Folk – even in a tie. But, if Aguayo shows a new sense of clutch, I think the job remains his.