Cover 3 is a weekly feature column written by PewterReport.com’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat writer Trevor Sikkema published every Tuesday. The column, as its name suggests, comes in three phases: a statistical observation, an in-depth film breakdown, and a “this or that” segment where the writer asks the reader to chose between two options.

Sikkema’s Stat of the Week

Have y’all ever been to the Seminole Hard Rock Casino in Tampa?

Really, it doesn’t have to be the Hard Rock. Any old casino will do. I wasn’t much of a gambler until after my college years. Even in high school when some friends and I would get together to play Texas Hold ‘Em, my luck was so damn bad that I just never wanted to try to risk real money. Even today, I watch people play blackjack or some from of poker and just feel like they’re throwing their money away.

But, as of now, when someone asks if I want to go to the Hard Rock Casino for one night on a weekend, it’s hard for me to say no. The reason for this is because after college I found a game I liked. I found a game that really go the adrenaline in me pumping, and a game that I’ve had, well, let’s just say moderate success with, over the past few years.

The game is roulette.

I love it. It’s incredibly addicting. Observing the past spins, seeing what percentages of which color or which numbers have been spun, convincing myself that there’s somehow deeply embedded strategy to a game that is nothing more than the flip of a coin – I really only bet red or black, you won’t get better odds than 50 percent at a casino. It’s my bet, my call, all or nothing.

Justin Evans is roulette.

Tampa Bay Bucs - Justin Evans
Texas A&M S Justin Evans – Photo by Brad Marquardt

Evans’ career didn’t begin in College Station. Before becoming an Aggie, Evans attended Mississippi Gulf Coast Community College in Perkinston, Mississippi. In his first year (and a starter), he earned first-team all-conference honors with 47 tackle, five interceptions (including two he returned for touchdowns) and seven pass break ups. As a sophomore, Evans made 39 tackles with six passes broken up and an interception. After JUCO, Evans transferred to Texas A&M where he was again a two-year starter. He finished his college career with over 250 tackles, 11 interceptions and 24 passes broken up between the two schools.

Evans has built a reputation that he’s all or nothing; hit or miss; a strikeout or a home run. Or, at least, that’s what he was at Texas A&M. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, on the other hand, are hoping he’s going to be more consistent than that – with plenty of those all, hit and home run plays week-to-week.

So, here’s the good. In his last nine games with the Aggies, Evans gave up just 19 catches on 32 targets for 107 yards. He also recorded two interceptions and six pass break-ups. In total for 2016, he gave up an average of just 8.3 yards per reception and two touchdowns. However, he did intercept four passes while breaking up another eight. According to Pro Football Focus, Evans had a coverage grade that ranked third-best among FBS safeties in 2016. To top it all off, Evans did not give up a reception longer than 14 yards in the latter half of the season.

The bad for Evans, is, well, where the “all or nothing” risk comes from. Evans missed 38 missed tackles in his final two seasons by PFF’s count (that’s a lot). He also ranked 219th in tackling efficiency among FBS safeties in 2016. He was 210th in run-stop percentage among all FBS safeties, and simply did not put the literally definition of a “safety” to use as much as he probably should have when tackling ball carriers in the last line of defense.

But don’t just take the numbers’ words for it (number can’t talk, idiot), here’s what some of the people at the top thought of Evans after watching his tape.

Texas A&M S Justin Evans – Photo by: Getty Images

“He’ll hit you, but he’ll also miss some tackles. He’s a very aggressive guy. It’s all-or-nothing when he comes to tackle and he also has good range on the back end. When you look at Tampa Bay, Justin Evans comes in, competes day one and ends up being their starting free safety.”

– Mike Mayock

“Soft-spoken but carries a walloping stick. Plays the game with an elevated sense of urgency and excitement. He is a little undersized, but has plus speed, is an extremely physical hitter and can play deep or near the line of scrimmage. Athleticism and ball skills might lead a team to test him out as a slot corner. Regardless of where he plays, he has the talent to become a plus NFL starter and a potential Day 2 (Rounds 2-3) draft selection.”

– Lance Zierlein

“His interception against UCLA at the beginning of the year was one of those plays that not many safeties can make. But I’m worried about his missed tackles. Hard hits are great for Sportscenter or YouTube but getting guys to the ground is top priority.”

– Anonymous front-office executive for AFC team

“Soft-spoken but carries a walloping stick.” That sounds eerily familiar. I wonder where I’ve heard that before.

The narrative around Evans seems to be married with the game film people have watched. But, as should always be the case with scouting, getting an opinion form guys in the business is good, but that doesn’t excuse you from watching the tape yourself. Let’s dive into some of Evans’ tape on the next page, really put him under the microscope and see if we can pin-point exactly why the Buccaneers drafted him where they did, and the potential he has under defensive coordinator Mike Smith’s plans.

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About the Author: Trevor Sikkema

Trevor Sikkema is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat reporter and NFL Draft analyst for PewterReport.com. Sikkema, an alumnus of the University of Florida, has covered both college and professional football for much of his career. As a native of the Sunshine State, when he's not buried in social media, Sikkema can be found out and active, attempting to be the best athlete he never was. Sikkema can be reached at: trevor@pewterreport.com
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Bella
3 years ago

which has become a common theme for the organization since 1999.,Tyler Kroft Jersey,The Cleveland Browns enter 2017 with another quarterback competition but fans are hoping 2017 is the final year in which there is yet another competition to decide the starting job.,Cleveland Browns fans are well-aware that the quarterback position is still not solidified. The front office knows this as well Cody Kessler enters the year as the favorite, it may be another year of a quarterback carousel in Cleveland., but the job is still not definitively his just yet. With Brock Osweiler‘s experience and DeShone Kizer’s potential The position… Read more »

deeznuts
3 years ago

Tackling can be coached. He has ball skills and game speed (even though I was a bit disappointed in his timed speed at 4.6). tandy and conte (or Wilson) appear to be the starters so it looks like evans is going to make his mark on ST this year. open field tackling on punt/kickoff is generally a good litmus test for safety play.. personally, I’d play the hell out of him in the preseason. what happened to the Ryan smith experiment?

plopes808
Reply to  Trevor Sikkema
3 years ago

I’ve always believed that intangibles were worth more weight than teachable skills. Our coaching staff can fix Evans’ issues but they can’t really teach him ball skills. I say run the veterans and let Evans get some field time on ST and in pre season to hone the skills he lacks. When his mechanics improve, give him a shot at some play time and see how it goes. Like you said, that’s a lot of ball skills and athleticism to be riding the bench all season…not to mention a second round pick.

Mic
Mic
3 years ago

He needs to stay on the bench learn proper angles and how to be a dog, Wilcox and Tandy are dogs the energy Tandy brings when hes balling will be infectious, When Tandy starts balling hes gonna bring that swagger in the back end just look at his face when he has his beats in with those eyes, hes out for blood and now hes been developed to be a starter. Wilcox will be an enforcer with big hits similar to how Goldson was on the 9ers. Keep Evans on the bench let Conte rotate in til Evans learns how… Read more »