Back in March, Bucs head coach Todd Bowles got his second chance. With his mentor, Bruce Arians, stepping into a front office role and handing him the keys to a ready-made Super Bowl contender, Bowles has a fresh opportunity to succeed as a head coach in the NFL.

Of course, Bowles’ first chance to lead a team was ultimately unsuccessful. After being named the AP’s Assistant Coach of the Year following the 2014 season, he left the Cardinals to become the head coach of the New York Jets. A 10-6 record in his debut season showed promise, but it all went downhill from there. His Jets went 5-11, 5-11 and 4-12 in the next three years. That left him with a 24-40 record in four seasons as the team’s head coach. Despite having signed him to a contract extension, New York fired him following the 2018 season.

Luckily, everything lined up perfectly for Bowles from there. His availability is part of the reason Arians came out of retirement. Though he was enticed by the chance to lead Tampa Bay, Arians wanted his whole coaching staff to come with him. And as fate would have it, that all came to fruition. Bowles became the Bucs defensive coordinator before the 2019 season, and by the end of the following season, he was a Super Bowl-winning defensive coordinator. His defensive game plan against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs was the catalyst behind the Bucs earning their second-ever Lombardi Trophy. Soon after the Bucs made him the league’s highest-paid defensive coordinator.

After a 2021 season in which his defense faced injury after injury and still managed to finish as the fifth-best scoring defense in the league, Bowles has another chance. Arians went out on top – in his own way. That left Bowles in an ideal situation, and now he has to take advantage of it.

Can Bowles’ Tenure With Jets Really Tell Us Anything About Him As A Head Coach?

Arians’ plan was always succession. When Tom Brady retired in February, Arians planned to keep coaching. He didn’t want to hand the team off to Bowles when it was in need of a rebuild with a new quarterback. But once Brady announced his return, everything worked out. Arians made his decision, transitioned into the front office and gave Bowles another chance to be an NFL head coach. Former Jets executive Mike Tannenbaum actually thinks Bowles can be an upgrade over Arians.

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles – Photo by: USA Today

But what kind of head coach will Bowles be this time around? Can we take anything away from the 58-year-old’s tenure in New York? Pro Football Focus recently gave it a shot, taking Bowles’ time with the Jets and using it to rank him in the bottom tier of NFL head coaches. Through an analytical model, PFF placed him in the fourth tier, marked “Room for Improvement.”

But is that fair? If you’re qualifying that ranking by strictly saying: “This was the level of head coach he was with the Jets,” then that’s fine. However, his time in New York may not be a true measure of what type of head coach he’ll be in 2022 and beyond.

“Bowles has been one of the best defensive minds in football, and his results as a head coach back that up,” Conor McQuiston wrote. “Unfortunately, his teams as a head coach have struggled immensely on offense.”

That’s true. Bowles is a defensive mastermind. He has led great defenses in Arizona, New York and Tampa Bay. But he’s being knocked here for his New York teams struggling offensively. Is that fair?

As Of Now, It’s Tough To Get A Valid Read On Bowles As A Head Coach

This is where it’s important to acknowledge the level of offenses that Bowles dealt with during his time with the Jets. In that 10-6 season, he had Ryan Fitzpatrick leading the way. New York ultimately missed out on the playoffs, but a 10-win season is nothing to scoff at.

In 2016, the Jets had Fitzpatrick start 11 games, with Bryce Petty starting four and Geno Smith starting another. That’s not exactly a recipe for good offensive play. The following year, Bowles had Josh McCown for 13 games and Petty for another three. And in his final season, Bowles had McCown for three games and rookie Sam Darnold for 13.

Bucs QB Ton Brady and HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Going through quarterbacks like that doesn’t give much stability to draw any conclusions from. It’s easy to see that the Jets’ offensive situation wasn’t favorable. So, it’s perhaps a bit harsh to judge what type of head coach Bowles is based on that.

Of course, his debut season as the Bucs head coach won’t give us a fair look either, will it? It’s now gone to the opposite extreme for Bowles. He has Tom Brady and a stacked offense to work with. We’ll get more of a measure down the line, once the Brady era is over and a new quarterback comes in and leads the way.

None of this is to say that Bowles is a great head coach. The point isn’t even that he’s a good head coach. It’s more that, really, we don’t know what type of head coach he’ll be in 2022. He certainly learned what went wrong in New York and will perhaps do some things differently this time. And when you consider the “it’s the Jets” factor, perhaps his ranking in PFF’s tier list is out of date. We’ll find out this year.