The countdown to the Bucs’ 2026 season is on. Right now, we’re:

47 days away from Bucs regular season kickoff
17 days away from Bucs preseason kickoff
1 day away from Bucs training camp

In the lead-up to training camp, Pewter Report’s Bailey Adams will be diving into storylines for 26 key figures who will be crucial to the Bucs’ success in 2026.

Today, the series concludes with head coach Todd Bowles. 

26 For ‘26: Todd Bowles Bucs Storylines In 2026

How Hot Is Todd Bowles’ Seat Heading Into 2026?

The Bucs saw a 6-2 start turn into a 2-7 finish and an 8-9 record overall in 2025, and to make matters worse, their four-year reign atop the NFC South came to an end. When the coaching carousel came and went in January and Bowles remained the man in charge for Tampa Bay, there was a lot of anger from the Buccaneer fan base. Almost 8 months later, that anger hasn’t really dissipated. And with the way last season unfolded combined with the relative mediocrity of his overall tenure, Bowles is firmly on the hot seat heading into his fifth season as the Bucs’ head coach.

But how hot is that seat? You’d have to think it’s hot to very hot. Now, the Glazers have never been in the business of firing coaches in the middle of a season. So, at the very least, Bowles has the 2026 campaign to make what could be his final stand. While he steered Tampa Bay to NFC South titles in 2022, 2023 and 2024, he’s still only 35-33 overall during his Bucs tenure. He’s also just 1-3 in the playoffs, so the pressure is on for the 62-year-old this season.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: IMAGN Images

Bowles had an 8-9 debut season after taking over for Bruce Arians upon his retirement in 2022, winning the division but losing to the Cowboys in blowout fashion at home in what turned out to be Tom Brady’s final game. When expectations dropped lower in 2023 after Brady’s retirement, Bowles and newly signed quarterback Baker Mayfield kept the team atop the division at 9-8 and beat the Eagles in the Wild Card Round before a close road loss to the Lions in the NFC Divisional Round. In 2024, the Bucs went one win higher, finishing 10-7 only to lose to the Commanders at home in the Wild Card Round.

Then came last year, which can only be described as an unmitigated disaster given the way the second half of the season went. Tampa Bay was 6-2 at its bye week, then lost three straight out of the bye and seven of eight overall. A win in Week 18 ended up not being enough to keep the division title for another year, as the Bucs needed help from the Saints and didn’t get it. So, yeah, at 35-33 overall with two 8-9 seasons, a 9-8 season and a high watermark of 10-7 when he had Liam Coen’s top-five offense, Bowles is up against it this year.

What can the head coach do to keep his job into 2027? You’d imagine the bar will be pretty high. Goal No. 1 has to be avoiding a massive losing streak during the regular season, as those have been customary during Bowles’ tenure. Tampa Bay had losing streaks of three and four games last year. It had a four-game losing streak in 2024 and 2023, and in 2022, there was a three-game losing streak and another stretch in which the team lost three of four.

Beyond avoiding one of those losing slides in 2026, Bowles has to get the Bucs back to the top of the NFC South. The division title is a necessity, as is a 10- or 11-win season at least. An 8-9 or 9-8 division title-winning season shouldn’t be enough to save his job. It gets really interesting from there, too. Because a 10- or 11-win season and a third first-round playoff loss in four playoff appearances under Bowles is hardly going to inspire confidence in anyone. No one needs reminding that the Glazers fired Tony Dungy for far less. A deep playoff run is probably needed to give Bowles any job security.

This really is Bowles’ last stand.

Todd Bowles Is Out Of Excuses With His Defense In 2026

We’ve seen Bowles draw up some truly special gameplans during his tenure with Tampa Bay. His defense’s Super Bowl LV performance, which came when in his second year as the Bucs’ defensive coordinator, comes to mind first. But the performance his unit put up in the Wild Card Round against the Eagles in January of 2024 was phenomenal in its own right. Things have been less-than-stellar for Bowles and his defense as of late, though. Tampa Bay allowed 24.2 points per game last year, tying for 20th in the league. It was 19th in yards per game allowed at 337.2, with an abysmal 238.2 passing yards allowed per game, which ranked 27th, being a big factor in that number.

The biggest issue over the last couple of years has been the lack of a consistent four-man pass rush and subpar play from the team’s inside linebackers. The Bucs finished with only 37 team sacks last year, their fewest ever under Bowles, who has been running the defense since 2019. And then there was the inside linebackers’ struggles in coverage and inability to prevent big plays on the ground once runners got to the second level. Both of those issues were addressed this offseason.

So, perhaps heightening the pressure even further for Bowles in 2026 is the fact that he no longer has any excuses with his defense.

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles – Photo by: USA Today

In fairness to the head coach and defensive play-caller, he hasn’t always had a full complement of talent to work with in recent years. Joe Tryon-Shoyinka didn’t provide enough off the edge to complement Yaya Diaby, nor did Haason Reddick last year. Calijah Kancey’s injury issues have been tough to deal with, too, especially with very little depth behind him. Speaking of a lack of depth, the inside linebacker room hasn’t been good enough in recent years. An aging and declining Lavonte David was the top inside ‘backer on the team, and he had little help behind him.

Not to mention, because of the poor play up front and the youth on the back end of the defense, Bowles hasn’t been able to deploy Antoine Winfield Jr., one of his top weapons, in the ways he’d like to because he’s had to rely on him to hold down the fort and cover for those around him. And more generally speaking, everything boils back down to the lack of pass rush. Bowles’ defense is at its best when it’s getting pressure, and that hasn’t been there — especially not in 2025.

So, about this offseason. The Bucs added talent up front in A’Shawn Robinson, Rakeem Nunez-Roches, Al-Quadin Muhammad, Rueben Bain Jr. and DeMonte Capehart. They also get David Walker and Calijah Kancey back at full health. The team also replenished the inside linebacker position with veteran Alex Anzalone and second-round pick Josiah Trotter. And while the only meaningful addition to the secondary was fourth-round pick Keionte Scott, the potential starting nickel in 2026, new position coaches are expected to get more out of Zyon McCollum, Benjamin Morrison, Jacob Parrish and the rest of the defensive backs. If that doesn’t happen, there’s no one left to fire. It’s ultimately on Bowles.

So, there shouldn’t be any limitations for Bowles in calling his defense and mapping out his gameplans in 2026 — with or without Vita Vea. There can’t be any more excuses. It’s now or never.

What’s The Ceiling For The Bucs Under Todd Bowles?

What if things largely go right under Bowles this year? What if the pieces added to the defense allow him to get the most out of that side of the ball again, and what if Zac Robinson’s offense is closer to that of Liam Coen’s and the results are similar to what that unit produced in 2024? If everything turns out the way the Bucs are hoping, what then? What’s the ceiling under Todd Bowles?

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: USA Today

Thus far, history tells us that the ceiling for Bowles in the regular season is 10 wins. It also tells us the ceiling in the playoffs is the Divisional Round. We have eight seasons of Bowles as an NFL head coach to draw from, and twice has he reached 10 wins. He went 10-6 in his first year with the Jets in 2015, then went 10-7 with the Bucs back in 2024. And all of his playoff history has come with Tampa Bay. That’s consisted of two exits in the Wild Card Round on both sides of a season with a Wild Card win and a Divisional Round loss.

Can Bowles win 11 games in a season? Is he a head coach you can get to the NFC Championship Game with? He’s won Super Bowls as an executive and as a defensive coordinator. But can he win you a Super Bowl as a head coach? Critics will say no to all of those questions, and even his biggest supporters would hesitate to say yes, wouldn’t they? That’s why it’s worth wondering how far he can take this team not just in 2026, but ever.

Those are questions the Glazers have hopefully asked themselves in recent offseasons. And assuming they have, they’ve obviously convinced themselves that the answers are yes, or at least closer to yes than no. But if Bowles has a ninth season as a head coach and a fifth in Tampa Bay fall short of those marks, ownership will need to take a long, hard look at the situation and determine whether the Bucs have already reached their peak with Bowles.

No one wants to go back to the decade of darkness that was 2009-2019. But spinning your wheels and going nowhere gets tiresome after a while, too. So, if it becomes clear by the end of 2026 that Bowles’ ceiling is struggling to win a bad division and exiting the playoffs in the first or second round, it’ll simply be time for Tampa Bay to make a move and try to find the right coach — one whose ceiling is high enough to get the organization within reach of Lombardi Trophy No. 3.

Catch Up On Bailey Adams’ 26 For ’26 Series

OFFENSE:

Baker Mayfield
Bucky Irving
Kenny Gainwell
Chris Godwin Jr.
Emeka Egbuka
Jalen McMillan
Cade Otton
Tristan Wirfs
Ben Bredeson
Graham Barton
Cody Mauch
Luke Goedeke

DEFENSE:

Yaya Diaby
Rueben Bain Jr.
A’Shawn Robinson
Calijah Kancey
Vita Vea
Alex Anzalone
Josiah Trotter
Zyon McCollum
Benjamin Morrison
Jacob Parrish
Antoine Winfield Jr.
Tykee Smith

SPECIAL TEAMS:

Chase McLaughlin